This is a stinky Thursday Night Football game if ever I’ve seen one. The best record in the NFL goes against the second worst record, as the Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) head to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (1-5-1). The Eagles will be praying to the injury Gods in the hope of getting out of Texas with a win and zero injuries, and Eagles fans will be holding their breath for the 60 minutes of this matchup hoping for no injuries. The Texans, meanwhile, are dealing with the blowback of not trading their WR1 Brandin Cooks, who has not shied away on social media since the trade deadline closed, blasting the Texans for not getting him his request of a trade out of Houston.
We had a great night on Monday Night Football, with the Browns dominating the Bengals 32-13. Our bets went 2-0, pushing our season record for primetime matches to 13-7-1 (+8.88u). As we enter the back half of the season, we look to keep up the momentum, starting with Thursday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans Preview & Betting Tips
NRG Stadium, Friday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
The Eagles came off their bye like business as usual, dominating the Steelers in a comprehensive 35-13 win. AJ Brown was an absolute beast, going for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns on 11 targets, with some of his play resembling a man amongst boys. Jalen Hurts continued his stellar campaign, throwing for 285 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Steelers had possession for 8 minutes more than the Eagles, but it didn’t matter, as the Eagles continued their dominance at the line of scrimmage in both offense and defence.
The Texans had to view last week as a missed opportunity, closing as 1-point underdogs to AFC South rivals the Titans. The Titans were without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, handing rookie Malik Willis his first career start. Willis didn’t need to do much, as Derrick Henry ran all over the Texans, rushing for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Texans offense is in horrible shape, and it doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon, with leading wideout Brandin Cooks upset with the organisation for not trading him away, whilst WR2 Nico Collins and WR3 John Metchie are both out injured.
Injury Report
Philadelphia Eagles
Jordan Davis (DT) – OUT
Derek Barnett (DE) – OUT
Josiah Scott (CB) – OUT
Tyree Jackson (TE) – OUT
Brett Toth (OT) – OUT
Janarius Robinson (LB) – OUT
Houston Texans
Nico Collins / John Metchie III (WR) – OUT
Justin McCray (OG) – OUT
Maliek Collins (DT) – OUT
Neville Hewitt (LB) – OUT
Grayland Arnold (S) – OUT
Justin Britt (C) – OUT
Jonathan Greenard / Derek Rivers (DE) – OUT
Desmond King (DB) – QUESTIONABLE
Brandin Cooks (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
This is as close to one sided as an NFL game can get, with my power rankings having the Eagles as the 3rd best team in the NFL and the Texans 32nd and last. The look ahead for this one was Eagles -9, and if you managed to get involved at that number you are sitting pretty. The game re-opened on Monday at Eagles -12.5, and has been bet all the way up to Eagles -14. The move makes sense, given the way the Eagles can control the line of scrimmage, particularly on offense. This leads me to believe they will be able to run all day on this poor Texans rush defence.
The Eagles currently have the 5th best rushing offense per DVOA, with the Texans ranking dead last in rushing defence per DVOA. I can see a clear game script where the Eagles get out to a quick two score lead, before leaning on the run game and being able to cruise to victory. The chances of them pulling starters in the 4th quarter has me concerned for a late game back door cover by the Texans, and given the game is a primetime match at home for the Texans, they will have the motivation to put up some points for their fans late.
As a result, I’m sticking to the Eagles getting away well and putting distance between themselves and the Texans early, with my favourite bet being the Eagles to cover the 1st half line. My second bet is similar, and I expect the Eagles to really push in the second quarter to get their lead up before half time. The Eagles have averaged 18 points per game in 2nd quarters, whilst only giving up an average of 4.3 points per second quarter. I like them to cover the 4.
Alternate Bet: Eagles -4 (2nd Quarter Line) - $1.95 @ Bet365 (1.5u)
Eagles -7.5 (First Half Line)
$1.96 (2 Units)
