Arguably one of the best days of racing has finally arrived with some of the world’s best horses in action today across two massive meetings at Randwick and Flemington. It looks as if we will be racing on dry tracks in both states (can you believe it?) with the Newmarket Handicap and Randwick Guineas the highlights of the day.
Billy Bestford is back with his best bets of the day for Saturday, March 6th.
We kick things off with the battle of the two year olds with the Todman Stakes. We’ve got the two Golden Slipper favourites doing battle here and I am happy to side with (5) Stay Inside. This colt looks a serious racehorse having won his first two career starts by a combined 6.8L in open company. The step up to 1200m here looks perfect and McDonald sticks aboard a horse who he has given a fair big wrap to recently.
The obvious threat is (1) Profiteer who has also made a big impression to begin his career and will race up on the speed and take some catching. I’m expecting Stay Inside will have to give Profiteer a fair head start as they turn into the straight but I don’t think we have even seen half of what this horse is capable of. The win last start was arrogant and hopefully McDonald can slot in midfield somewhere and follow something into the race. If he can do that, I am confident this horse has the turn of foot to go past the top weight.
Hoping (5) Pretty Woman can make the step up to city grade here after showing plenty of promise in her opening two career starts. Matt Dale clearly has an opinion dropping her straight in the deep end and I am happy to back his judgement. She’s won her first two starts easily, heading straight to the front and showing a sustained speed which is crucial to a top line front-running horse. Her performances have been backed up by the clock, nearly breaking the Canberra track record while being eased down over the line. Admittedly she takes on a whole new level of opponents here but I am happy to have something on if she can stay around the $5 mark. Good to see her regular rider Alysha Collett keeps the ride today and will know exactly what she needs to do to get the best out of this horse.
No prizes for finding her but (14) September Run looks extremely hard to beat in this year’s Newmarket Handicap. This 3 year old Filly has come on leaps and bounds in the last year or so and now looks one of the top line sprinters in the country. Under handicap conditions today she looks very well-suited and I just can’t see anything in this field beating her. She carries 54kg, Williams on board, barrier is fine and her last start run was huge where she ran a flashing 2nd behind Nature Strip in the Lightning Stakes. As soon as that race was over, this looked her race to lose and a repeat of that performance will see her just winning again. She ran the fastest last 200m of the day and will only be better suited out to 1200m here.
Only bad luck beats her but if you're looking for something of value, I couldn’t talk you out of (2) Elite Street at any old price to run a good race. The WA galloper was too bad to be true in that Lightning Stakes where trainer Dan Morton has said he hadn’t settled into his new surroundings and wasn’t right on race day. He was a $15 chance that day and we are getting almost double that here. Has jumped out like a jet since then and am happy to have something on each-way.
(1) Aegon couldn’t have been more impressive in his Australian debut where he thrashed a few of these horses in the Hobartville. He actually draws better today in barrier 8 and will be even more suited up to 1600m here. Yet to be beaten, this 3 year-old looks to have an incredible future and will win his fair share of top level races.
I’m struggling to see how any turn the tables on him from last start so (7) Mo’unga might be the danger bringing a different kind of formline. Was huge fresh in the CS Hayes and wears blinkers first time here. Looks the quinella horse and can’t see any of the others being able to match these two. Aegon will be the main bet but worth a little save on Mo’unga as well.
The Australian Cup is the next race I’m keen to play in and am again happy to have something on two runners here. (3) Fifty Stars is a deserved favourite after his good first-up run in the Blamey Stakes last week. He is on the quick back-up today in a race which he won last year and he is screaming out for 2000m now. He got close to running down Star of The Seas last week and I think today might be his day. He has the strongest form in this field recently and is one of the few horses who have performed well at WFA level in this field. I am hoping Allen can be positive from barrier 3 and if he can settle a touch forward in the run he will be going close once the gaps open up in the straight.
I’m also having something on the big boy in (1) Humidor. The veteran 8 year old hasn’t won for a while but he has been running well and still looks up to this level. His 4th last start in the CF Orr was good and he has always been a horse to peak with a run under his belt. Waller will know exactly what he’s doing and at $15+ he can run a huge race. He is easily the class of the field and am hoping he can turn back the clock today.
Happy to round out the card in Sydney with the Bjorn Baker trained (5) She’s Ideel. You couldn’t miss her flashing run last start where she came from no where to run third behind Subpoenead in the Millie Fox. Ran some ridiculous sectionals that day and just screamed out to back her next start wherever she goes. She happens to find a winnable race here in a big, but arguably weak field and draws okay in barrier 10. Don’t mind the step up from 1300 to 1600 where she clearly looked like she wanted a touch further last start. There is speed inside her which hopefully means she can get a cart into the race and find cover early. Pretty keen she will run well and at around the current $6 mark looks a handy way to finish the day.
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