Happy Valley Racing Tips for Wednesday, November 28th

November 28th 2018, 8:00pm, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Happy Valley in Hong Kong on Wednesday, November 28th, as we continue our coverage in the lead up to HKIR.

We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below!

HAPPY VALLEY RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 6 E Master

Next Best Bet: Race 3 New Elegance

Best Value Bet: Race 8 Fantastic Feeling

 

RACE 1

Very ordinary race to start the night off. Multimax looks very short at $2.70 for a horse that’s won just once from 11 starts at the track and is yet to place in six runs over the track and distance. All five of his wins at the 1200m distance have come at Sha Tin and the last of those was all the way back in 2016! Avellino has won just one race from 20 start in Hong Kong and that win was back in May 2016. That was in a Class 3 and tonight he drops into Class 5 for the first time since arriving. He’s also had a stable change since his last run five weeks ago. He’s now with Casper Fownes and Purton booked to ride is a good lead. He gets his chance tonight so in a very poor race I’ll take some of the $8.50 available. Keep Going is another that gets a Class drop. He’s also struggling for form but gets barrier 1 at the Happy Valley 1200m tonight, which should give him his chance to break through at $8.00. Something small on both Avellino and Keep Going but not a race to get excited about.

TIP:

Avellino
$8.50

BET NOW AT Sportsbet

Also backing: Keep Going $8.00

 

RACE 2

I think the market’s got this one right because I’d be surprised if anything outside of La Pegase and Rookie Star were to win. La Pegase has won two from two this season over the track and distance for breakout trainer Jimmy Ting. With the claim for Dylan Mo, he doesn’t actually go up too significantly in the weights so appears to find another winnable race. Rookie Star finished off his race well last start, which followed a couple of trials off a five-week break. He was only beaten a length in the end and only 0.4L off Management Star, who La Pegase beat by a short-half-head last time out.

 

RACE 3

I think the market’s got this one wrong and I’m really keen to bet. I think there’s a false favourite in the form of Helene Charisma. If you go back to his run two start back, he finished 3rd and was 2.3L behind New Elegance. Helene Charisma goes up 2kg in weight tonight from that run, while New Elegance only goes up 1.5kg. Granted, Helene Charisma has since come out and run a luckless 5th, but New Elegance is third up now and should be ready to win. I think New Elegance should be the clear favourite and I’m very happy to take the $4.00 on offer. The value in the race is Top Laurels at $10. He’s placed in both runs back from a spell and the form out of both races is strong. Four horses have won coming out of the race he ran in first up behind Red Warrior and Har Har Heart won impressively after coming out of the race he ran in three weeks ago. His third up record is very good and he’s won his only start at the track and distance. Definitely shouldn’t be double figures. I’ll be having a saver bet on Dynamic Eagle who carries just 49.5kg.

TIP:

New Elegance
$4.00

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value: Top Laurels $10

 

RACE 4

Competitive race. Looks to be a stack of speed on up front. That could set things up for Flying Force, who is racing in good form and will be coming from back off the speed. He won over this track and distance two starts ago, beating the likes of Thou Shall Sing, and he ran the second-fastest final sectional when finishing 4th last start. He’ll need a good ride from the apprentice but if they go hell-for-leather up front, he’ll be charging home over the top. Quadruple Double might look to take a sit from barrier 2 tonight, just behind expected leaders Thou Shall Sing and Look Eras. Or they may try to push through from underneath and lead; I’m hoping they take a sit. De Sousa takes over from the apprentice tonight and he looks a major player. Fearless Fire draws wide but drops in grade and Purton takes the ride for Fownes. He’ll relish the hot speed and could be the knockout. Hard race.

 

RACE 5

Another competitive race. Keen to stick with You Have My Word who was butchered by Van Nierkerk two starts back (and called out by Purton for it!) before Purton jumped on last start and got the job done. He goes up in weight tonight but draws ideally in barrier 3 and Purton sticks with him. He goes on top. Good Days looks over the odds at $8 and he looks the value in the race. He finished 5th behind You Have My Word last start, beaten 1.85L, but he actually produced the equal-fastest 800-400m split and then ran his final sectional in an identical time to the winner. He gets up in distance to 2200m tonight (he’s won over this track and distance previously) and gets a 3kg weight swing on You Have My Word. He’s a good chance. Savannah Wind draws well and has a good record at the track and distance. Backing both You Have My Word and Good Days.

TIP:

You Have My Word
$3.50

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

Value: Good Days $8.00

 

RACE 6

Best bet of the night here with E Master. He’s absolutely flying this prep. He won first up at this track and distance before running 2nd at Sha Tin second up. Last start, he drew wide and went back near the rear of the field before unleashing a 22.58 final sectional to get within a length of the winner. He was the only horse in the race to break 23 seconds for the final 400m. From barrier 7, he should be able to sit a touch closer and with even luck he is clearly the horse to beat.

 

RACE 7

It’s pretty hard to split four or five of these. Fairy Twins has had two runs back from a spell and has placed in both of them. Both were over 1200m so he now drops back to the 1000m but gets the benefit of barrier 1 and Silvestre De Sousa. There’s been five subsequent winners from those two races so the form looks fairly trustworthy. Healthy Luck has had two runs back from a spell as well. He hasn’t placed in either but he looks as if he might take up the lead tonight with Douglas Whyte taking over from Vincent Ho. He’s at least proven over the Happy Valley 1000m, with five starts at the track and distance resulting in a win and two placings. Eagle continues to run well. He won over 1200m here three starts ago, then had no luck when trapped wide without cover, and most recently finished close up in 3rd over the 1000m here. He’s drawn well in barrier 2 and will take beating. Star Of Joy has only won one race from 21 career starts and that was all the way back on debut at Newcastle! He gets Zac Purton on for the first time tonight and he also runs over 1000m for the first time in his career. He should get a comfortable run from barrier 6 and he’s put the writing on the wall with three good runs this time in. Beaut Beaut steps up in class after winning over track and distance last start. He’s drawn awkwardly but certainly not out of this. At $13 he represents the value in the race.

 

RACE 8

Really quite keen on the each chances of Fantastic Feeling here at $11 but Blitzing is the obvious horse to beat. Fantastic Feeling has been huge in all three starts this preparation. He won first up, then bumped into a couple of very smart ones in the form of Country Star and Little Bird and then finished 3rd last start where he recorded the fastest final 400m in the race. He won’t have to get so far back from barrier 4 tonight and if a pace battle ensues up front, he’ll steam over the top late. Blitzing won two on the bounce before going down as the short-priced favourite last start. Purton takes over from Teetan tonight and from barrier 5 he should be able to find the rail and lead all the way. Little Bird bolted in last start but draws wide tonight so probably won’t find the rail and he also goes up 6.5kg in the weights. It’s not easy to do that.

TIP:

Blitzing
$2.40

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

Value: Fantastic Feeling $11

 

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