Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, April 8th.
It's a welcome return to Happy Valley tonight after last Wednesday's meeting on the dirt at Sha Tin. It's an eight-race card on the B course at the Valley, and you can find our preview and tips for every race below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 8th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (3) Charity Grand
Next Best Bet: Race 6 - (3) Allied Agility
Best Value: Race 8 - (4) Gentle Breeze / (8) Winner Supreme
This is a Hong Kong race to kick us off if I've ever seen one. The top two in the market here have combined for 28 starts and zero wins. The favourite (9) Everyone's Elite has run 2nd in his past five starts, while (8) Dionysis Colin has run 2nd in four of his past six. Everyone's Elite gets Moreira on so it's no surprise he's the favourite, but boy he's had his chances. He's started under $2.50 in three of his past four starts and has been beaten in all of them, and they were from barriers 5, 1 and 3, so it's not as if he's been undone by poor draws. He continues to creep up in weight despite not winning, so at $2.30 tonight, you can leave me out. Dionysis Colin at least comes up somewhat of an each way price at $5.50/$1.90, but he's drawn barrier 12. Moreira actually jumps off him to keep the ride on Everyone's Elite and Matthew Chadwick gets the nod. I'm going to look elsewhere in search of a bit of value to start us off. (11) Fantastic Boy was given absolutely no hope at Sha Tin last start, ridden straight into backsides for most of the straight. His last couple of runs back been OK and he drops all the way to 51.5kg tonight. He draws barrier 2 which is a big help and there's a big jockey change tonight with Karis Teetan taking over from Derek Leung. His only prior start here was a failure but he really gets his chance tonight at $8.00. (3) Flame Lily draws the inside and that's actually the horse Derek Leung sticks with. Moreira has ridden this horse to his only two career wins so he might well have the key to him, but he's placed in seven of 11 starts here at Happy Valley and barrier 1 gives him absolutely every conceivable chance to run a race tonight at big odds. $19 looks a bit of value.
Value: (3) Flame Lily $19
Another favourite here who has been struggling to get his head in front lately. (2) Let's Take It Easy has placed in his past three consecutive starts, all at this track and distance. He gets a few positives tonight - Purton sticks with him, he draws barrier 1 and he gets the blinkers applied for the first time. So this is his chance to crack it again. If he didn't have the blinkers going on, I'd be extremely keen to take him on. I still am going to take him on, but that gear change just scares me a little bit. (3) Charity Grand is the horse I'd rather be with. He looks ready to peak here third up at 1650m. He's had two runs back from a year off the track. Both have been at Sha Tin. He was well beaten first up, but he improved to run 4th last start, beaten just 1.5L. His sole career win came third up last preparation over this track and distance, and Moreira goes straight on tonight replacing Matthew Poon. Trainer Danny Shum has a 19% strike rate over this distance at Happy Valley this season, which is actually quite good. I think he's ready to win and at $3.70 he has to be the bet for me. Two at value you can include are (5) Fun Times and (11) Vital Spring. Fun Times ran 2nd first up before being caught wide the trip last start and still battling on into 5th. He's drawn wide but he's capable of running very well here at big odds. Vital Spring didn't get much luck either last start and was only beaten 1.5L so he is an each way chance.
Inside barriers are typically favoured over 1200m on the B course but I'm going to go against that and side with the top weight (1) Harmony N Home here. He ran a cracker on debut over this track and distance back in November, then had nine weeks off and took on the likes of Wellington, Ping Hai Bravo and Ka Ying Excellent at Sha Tin. He was outclassed in that, but returned to Happy Valley last start and produced another terrific run, coming from a clear last at the 250m mark to get within half-a-length. He ran a 22.56sec final sectional, much quicker than anything else in the race. The biggest jockey change in Hong Kong occurs with Purton taking the ride back off Alex Lai, and the only negative is barrier 12. It makes his job very difficult, but we're getting a decent price at $4.50. (10) Super Alliances is a horse I backed last start when he ran 5th, beaten less than a length. I thought the ride from Chad Schofield on that night was poor - he drew barrier 2 and ended up wide in the straight. Moreira gets back on tonight and he's drawn ideally in barrier 4. He's a strong chance. (4) Lucky Quality resumes from a break and a repeat of his debut performance would see him be very competitive, while (11) The Show draws barrier 1 which gives him claims. (3) Golden Glory can be included at big odds.
(3) Amazing is a really good price here at $6.50. He won over track and distance two starts ago with Purton in the saddle, then drew barrier 12 last start with Grant van Niekerk in the saddle, where he settled at the back of the field and charged home into 4th, beaten 1.5L. He ran a 22.63sec final sectional, clearly the best of the race. He's absolutely flying and Purton jumps back aboard tonight. Barrier 8 is a tricky draw and the stats over the track and distance from this gate aren't positive, but I think he's going well enough to overcome it and the each way odds we're getting are too good not to take. (10) Simply Fluke makes his stable debut for Douglas Whyte and Joao Moreira is an eye-catching booking after piloting him in both his recent trials. He's drawn wide in barrier 12 but it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see him fired out of the gate and across the field to lead. Moreira jumps off (8) Wood On Fire, who has placed in his past two starts and draws perfectly in barrier 3. (12) One Step Ahead can be thrown in at huge odds. He draws barrier 1 tonight and if he can jump well, he might be able to make use of that gate and sneak into a place.
Only two I'm interested in here. (10) Diamond Brilliant has absolutely no excuses tonight. He's run 2nd at this track and distance in his past two starts. Two runs back he drew barrier 1 and went down by half-a-length, and then last start he sat three-wide on speed and again just found one better late. He's drawn ideally here in barrier 5 and Moreira sticks with him and he really should be winning this. (12) Good For You is value at $9.00 though and I'd almost be backing him and saving on Diamond Brilliant. Good For You put two wins together over this track and distance in Class 4 company, before failing in two starts at Sha Tin. He wasn't beaten all that far in either of those and he is much better suited back to Happy Valley tonight. He's got four wins from nine starts over the track and distance and he's drawn barrier 1 which should play into his favour here. He carries 49.5kg with the claim for the apprentice so at $9.00 he looks the value. (5) Young Legend has trialled well and Purton goes on but he normally takes a run to come good.
Two horses I'm keen on here. (3) Allied Agility will be my main bet in the race at $6.00. He won first up from a spell defeating War Of Courage at Sha Tin. War Of Courage then came out and won its next start in the same race as Allied Agility ran in. Allied Agility has a poor second up record so it was no surprise to me to see him run below par. I think he can bounce back tonight though. He won third up last preparation by 1.8L carrying top weight at Sha Tin. Trainer Ricky Yiu has a great record over 1000m at Happy Valley, with six winners from 23 starters this season and Vincent Ho takes over the ride tonight. He's drawn well in barrier 5 and looks a terrific winning chance at good odds. (7) Very Sweet Orange is aiming for four wins on the trot over this track and distance. He gets apprentice Alfred Chan back on tonight to bring him back down to a similar weight he carried to victory last start, and Alfie piloted him to his two wins before that, so he knows the horse well. From the good draw, he should lead and prove hard to beat again. Happy to back Allied Agility and save on Very Sweet Orange.
Think this is between the two favourites. (1) Holy Heart goes on top. He ran 2nd over 1800m here last start, beaten a short-half-head. He drew barrier 1 on that occasion and should get a similar run from barrier 2 tonight. Purton sticks with him, the drop back to 1650m is not detrimental to his chances at all, in fact it probably suits him better as he's placed in seven of his eight starts at the distance. (7) Flash Famous is aiming for three wins on the trot and Moreira sticks with him after riding him to victory in his past two starts. He carried 52kg to victory last time out so he's copped a fair rise in the weights, having to carry 57kg tonight. He's also drawn out a touch in barrier 9 which is slightly awkward, so he won't enjoy the same run as he had last start from barrier 1.
(4) Gentle Breeze looks a decent bet here at $8.00. He's a five-time winner over track and distance and comes into this fresh from a six-week break. He's dropping in class, and more importantly, dropping in distance back to the 1000m after racing over 1200m in his past two starts. He's only ever won over 1000m so this is a much better race for him. (5) Hong Kong Bet is also better suited back to 1000m as all three career wins have been at this distance. He's got a good record at the track and distance and draws well in barrier 6. (2) Stronger comes up favourite for Purton and John Moore. He won easily over this track and distance two starts ago but was outclassed at Sha Tin last start. Much better suited in this race but surprisingly barrier 4 is the least successful over this track and distance. Happy to take on (10) This Is Class. Not underestimating his ability, and he's never finished out of the top two from six starts at Happy Valley, but all his wins have been over 1200m so he might not be suited over 1000m tonight. (8) Winner Supreme looks the value and should definitely be included at $15. He's only missed a place twice from 10 career starts. He's trialed well and draws well so looks over the odds at that price. Backing Gentle Breeze at $8.00 and Winner Supreme at $15.
Value: (8) Winner Supreme $15
