Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday, March 11th

March 10th 2017, 6:39pm, By: tim_tips

Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday, March 11th

Super Saturday at Flemington this weekend with a double header of Group 1 racing! The Australian Cup and Newmarket Handicap are the headline races but we have a very strong support card to look forward to as well.

The track is a Good 4 with the rail in the True position, which some people believe favours the runners on the rail.

We have racing betting tips below for all 9 races!

FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 11th 

Race 1

Think the favourite CANNYESCENT is under the odds here and I'd prefer to be in the corner of the stablemate DUSTY JACK who has won his last three races and four from six in his career. He just keeps improving and making his way through the grades so with a comfortable draw here and a reasonable weight he should go close again at $4. His biggest danger could be BATTLECAMP who finally had a trouble-free run last start and absolutely bolted in. He did beat a bunch of snails, however, and this is much harder, but he's got the talent to win a race like this and Damian Lane is a strong booking. TOP ME UP will either lead or box seat and could be hard to run down if the rail is hot, while the early money suggests DUIBIO could show up here at big odds. He's a good horse on his day but has clearly had issues this prep so if he produces his best form he'd probably win this. 

Tip: Dusty Jack

 

Race 2

Looks a nice race for the Chris Waller runners here. HURSLEY is knocking on the door and he gets his chance here with just 54kg on his back. Three starts ago ran 3rd behind Big Duke which is a strong formline, and carried 60kg that day. He was then beaten 0.8L over 2000m at Caulfield before running 2nd over this track and distance last start. Looks hard to beat here. I think HIPPARCHUS can bounce back from his failure last start. Before that he was flying and won quite impressively over track and distance two starts ago. Draws poorly so he will be ridden cold and charge at them late. Freshened up for this, Bowman jumps aboard and if he bounces back to the form from two starts ago he'll be hard to beat here. The value definitely looks to be ALOFT at the top of the weights who comes into this first up from a spell. He's looking for further than this (has won over 3200m) but he's Group 1 placed over 1600m back in 2014 and his first up run last prep at his first Australian start was enormous. That was over 2000m, so it's realistic to think he can run a big race fresh here over 1800m at double figure odds.

Tip: Hursley / Aloft EW

 

 

Race 3

Pretty keen on KEN'S DREAM here for Weir and Rawiller. I think this colt is pretty good, and if you look back through his form from last prep you'll see he ran 2nd to Benz who came out and won at Group 3 level at his first run back from a spell last start. Then he bumped into Flying Artie at his last start when he really should have finished closer if not for Damien Oliver flattening him on the corner. That form is very strong for this and I think there's a fair bit of deadwood in this race.Has to lump 59kg first up but I think he'll be good enough anyway. The value in the race could be Weir's other runner PERPETUAL CRISIS who won over track and distance last start at huge odds, while VILLA ROSA is a filly to keep an eye on at double figure odds. She has been finishing off well in her last two starts and was luckless in the Typhoon Tracy last start so with even luck here she could go well. MATTY also a talented type to include.

Tip: Ken's Dream

 

Race 4

Three that stand out for me here. ESHTIRAAK will be incredibly hard to beat here on current form. He's won his past three starts and just keeps improving with each performance. He had no problem stepping up to 1300m last start and I don't see the 1400m being any problem either. Settles in the box seat from barrier 1 and expect him to win this. The bottom-weight UNDOUBTABLE MISS appeals as the value option in the race. On debut she finished behind Ducimus who then came out and won a good race a couple weeks back. Last start she finished off hard when runner up over 1200m at Sandown and that suggests the step up to 1400m will suit her. $10 is available for her and I'd definitely be having something small on. The same can be said for GROUNDBREAK who will definitely relish the step up in ground given his sire is All Too Hard. He has been racing like he needs extra ground and he knuckled at the start last time out so can probably forgive him for that. He ran 2nd to Veranillo on debut which is strong Sydney form.

Tip: Eshtiraak / Undoubtable Miss EW

 
 

Race 5

I AM A STAR looks very well placed as a Group 1 winner at set weights here with a good draw and the all-important step up to 1400m. Both runs over 1100m this prep have been good and given she won her Group 1 over 1600m last prep the step up in distance sees her a deserved favourite. However, she's been $3.60 into $2.20 and at that price I'd rather be backing ELLICAZOOM at $5.50. I think this girl is also very good and she should have won plenty more races than she has. She ran well in the Angus Armanasco over 1400m last start to finish 2nd after doing work early, and the big Flemington track will suit her style of racing so the draw isn't too much of an issue. The value looks to be KENEDNA who we backed last start when winning at Group 3 level over this track and distance. $10 looks a huge price to me after such a dominant win. 

Tip: Ellicazoom / Kenedna EW (Best Value)

 

Race 6

Wide open race but a couple stand out as possible plays. PURE PRIDE was luckless first up over 1400m with 60kg on her back and the last time she ran over 1600m she finished within a length of I Am A Star in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas. Drops to 54kg here and despite the terrible draw, she looks a hyuge chance of winning this if the breaks come at the right time. Outside of her I think there's a few at longer odds that are worth backing. ZASORCERESS had absolutely every chance last start as the short priced favourite at Ballarat and has failed to really deliver on the promise she showed first up, but she has the ability and Weir has a knack of getting these horses to win these races. She is rock hard fit and gets the blinkers back on here so with Damian Lane aboard I'm expecting her to go close. SEBRING DREAM won well first up over 1300m and will only improve as she rises in distance. Her best will probably still come over 2000m but she will relish the mile here and with only 53kg she could give this a good shake at odds. LADY SELKIRK had no luck last start and will enjoy a much better run from barrier 5 here. She's undefeated from three starts over the mile, while NURSE KITCHEN is one to keep safe. 

Tip: Pure Pride / Zasorceress EW

 

Race 7

Cracking race and I'm all over SPIETH here. He'll need luck but there is so much to like about the way he's finished off his races in the Lightning and the Darley last prep. You'd think with any pinch of luck he would be winning this, but the barrier draw won't help him. He draws 1 which doesn't suit his get-back style of racing. However, I think Bowman will ensure he doesn't make the same mistake as last start. He was set up to be competitive in the Lightning and improve into the Newmarket so this has been his aim all along. I think this is his day and I'll take the $4.20. TERRAVISTA returned to his absolute best last start in the Lightning where he beat Spieth. His second up record isn't as good as his first up record but he's still won 3 from 8 when second up and has never been out of the money from three starts over track and distance. I do think Spieth is better suited over 1200m than Terravista and the 1.5kg weight swing could be enough for Spieth to turn the tables. SHEIDEL can't be ruled out. Unlike Spieth, she'll make her own luck out the front and she is in career best form coming off a Group 1 win. She's won down the straight before and she'll be hard to run down from the front. EXTREME CHOICE should be ridden more positively today to make use of his tactical speed. That will take out any chance of being held up like he was in the Oakleigh Plate which ultimately cost him the race. Craig Newitt has been sacked and Joao Moreira takes the ride - I'm not sure you can get a better jockey change than that. He draws wide but the Magic Man will give him every chance and it would be no surprise to see him win this. VOODOO LAD could be the blowout having won three of his four races when first up from a spell. Include him at 25/1.

Tip: Spieth (Best Bet)

 

Race 8

The second of our Group 1's for the day is the Australian Cup and it is also set to be a cracker. Nothing wrong with the way STRATUM STAR is going and barrier 2 gives him absolutely every chance to win again. He beat Humidor, The United States and Jameka home last start and he'll get the run of the race again so expect him to be right in the finish. JAMEKA absolutely bolted in third up from a spell last prep over this distance when winning the Naturalism by over three lengths. She isn't as well weighted here and draws terribly in barrier 11 but there is a sense of timing about her and this distance is where she really begins to excel. If HUMIDOR went straight last start he would have won, and his immaturity is costing him races and makes him a slight risk here. Having said that, he absolutely motored home and his record over this distance is outstanding. He gets to what I think is his best distance at this point in time, and from the draw I think he is a huge winning chance. Trusting Weir to get him right today and if he goes straight, he should go very close. THE UNITED STATES is now 7YO but he returned with a very positive run first up behind Stratum Star. His second up record is phenomenal and he will only improve up to 2000m here. Draws to get the run of the race from barrier 4. Slight concern over his record at Flemington but he's too good to leave out. 

Tip: Humidor

 

Race 9

Wide open BM90 here down the straight. ROCKET TOMMY absolutely bolted in last start over 1100m downh the straight before going for a freshen up. If he returns in similar form (which I expect he will given he's won two from three first up runs) then he will be very hard to catch here. Draws wide but he'll go forward and give them all something to run down. The two Hayes/Dabernig horses SHAF and SUPER FUN both stand a chance. SHAF has won impressively down the straight once before while SUPER FUN was held up the entire straight last start at the Valley. RUNSATI is honest and will run her usual race.

Tip: Rocket Tommy

 

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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