It’s the final stretch of the English Premier League season, as we head into Matchday 30 with Arsenal extending their lead at the top of the table to seven points. Only three points separates third place from sixth, with the race for Champions League positions heating up! Catch our best bets for this weekend's action below.
EPL 2025-26: Matchday 30 Preview & Betting Tips
Chelsea vs Newcastle
Stamford Bridge, Sunday 15th March, 4:30am AEDT
Chelsea host Newcastle in a fixture that could carry significant implications for the race for European qualification as the Premier League season moves into its closing stretch. Chelsea currently sit in fifth place on the table three points behind third place, and given Man United and Villa play against each other this week, this game presents as a golden opportunity for Cheslea to get back into the top four. Newcastle ended a two game losing streak with a stirring win over Manchester United last week, scoring in the 90th minute to win 2-1 despite being down to ten men for the second half.
Chelsea have produced one of the league’s stronger attacking outputs this season, ranking third in the Premier League for goals scored this season at 53. Newcastle have been above average in the same area, ranking 8th with 42 goals, however the Magpies defence has been where they have struggled. Newcastle rank 13th for defence which has been a massive limitation this season, which has seen them fall back into the bottom half of the table after being amongst the European positions in previous seasons.
The key battle will likely unfold in midfield. If Chelsea dictate possession and tempo, Newcastle may find themselves defending for long periods, which increases the likelihood of defensive mistakes. Chelsea rank third in the Premier League for possession (58.7%), which gives them a great opportunity to get the upper hand in this match up. Newcastle are one of the worst away teams in the Premier league with a 3-4-7 record on the road this season, ranked 17th in the Premier League. Chelsea’s front half game will expose a struggling Newcastle defence.
Chelsea to Win
$1.80 (1.5 Units)
Arsenal vs Everton
Emirates Stadium, Sunday 15th March, 4:30am AEDT
Manchester City’s draw last week saw the Gunners move seven points clear at the top of the table, with just eight games remaining, the title is nearly in their hands. Arsenal host eighth placed Everton who come into this match on the back of two straight wins, after their 2-0 win over Everton last week. The Toffees are five points off fifth place, with the chance of Europa League football well and truly still alive for the Merseyside club.
Arsenal are the benchmark of the league, ranked first for goals scored (59), first for fewest goals conceded (22) and fourth for possession (56.7%). The Gunners have made the Emirates a fortress this season, with their 11-2-1 record at home this season, the second best home record in the league. They will face a challenge from Everton who have the fourth best away record in the Premier League at 7-3-4.
Given the gap in attacking quality, Everton’s likely strategy will be a compact defensive structure designed to frustrate Arsenal for as long as possible. By limiting space between their defensive lines and looking for opportunities on the counterattack or from set pieces, Everton may be able to keep the match competitive. However teams have unsuccessfully employed this tactic against the Gunners this season, who have continually put up big scores week after week. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six games against the Toffees, and will record another convincing win.
Arsenal -1
$2.05 (1 Unit)
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Old Trafford, Monday 16th March, 1:00am AEDT
The biggest game of Matchday 30 takes place at Old Trafford as Manchester United take on Aston Villa. United sit in third, while Villa are fourth, with both sides tied on 51 points. The Red Devils suffered their first defeat under Michael Carrick in a frustrating 2-1 loss to Newcastle, which ended an eleven game unbeaten streak which has catapulted into the top four. Villa have had a brutal fortnight, losing 2-0 to Wolves and 4-1 to Chelsea, which has their top four place hanging by a thread.
This game will be a battle of Manchester United’s attacking game, which is ranked fourth in the league (51 goals scored) against Aston Villa’s defence, which is ranked fourth in the league (34 goals conceded). A key factor in who will get to enhance their advantage will be the possession battle, which like their table position is nearly inseparable. Villa are ranked fifth in the league for possession (53.7%) while the Red Devils are ranked sixth (53.6%).
The last three games between United and Villa have seen each team record one win, one draw and one loss, and with both teams having strength in one facet of the game this game will play out in a close game. Manchester United have played in five draws this season, and given a loss would put either side at risk of falling out of the top four, expect a cautious approach from both teams. A low scoring draw will be the result in this one.
