It’s a short turnaround for Matchday 29, which kicks off on Wednesday morning in Liverpool. A crucial clash between fourth placed Aston Villa and sixth placed Chelsea headlines this week’s slate of Premier League action. Check out our free betting tips for Week 29 in the EPL below!
EPL 2025-26: Matchday 29 Preview & Betting Tips
Brighton vs Arsenal
American Express Stadium, Thursday 5th March, 6:30am AEDT
Brighton head into Matchday 29 frustratingly positioned in eleventh place and this fixture against league leaders Arsenal presents a significant challenge despite their resurgence in form recently. After winning just one of their thirteen games from December to mid February, the Seagulls have won back to back games. The Gunners have also won their last two games, scraping a 2-1 win against a 10 man Chelsea side on Monday morning.
Arsenal boast the most complete statistical profile in the league. They have scored 58 goals, the highest total in the league, while conceding just 22 goals, the fewest in the Premier League. That combination of attacking fluency and defensive structure has made them the most consistent side in the league and put them in the driver's seat to win the title. Arsenal have also been excellent at controlling the tempo of matches this season, ranking fourth for possession (57.3%).
Brighton will look to disrupt Arsenal’s ball movement and prevent their ability to control the tempo of the match, however it’s difficult to see them being able to execute this. Whilst the Gunners have shown nervy signs in recent times, the reality is they just keep winning. Nine wins, four draws and only one loss across their last fifteen games is proof of their work, a consistency which Brighton has not been capable of. Six of Arsenal’s last seven games in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 total goals, and it will be another high scoring game for the Gunners.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Villa Park, Thursday 5th March, 6:30am AEDT
The most crucial clash of Matchday 29 takes place in Birmingham as Aston Villa take on Chelsea in a top six clash. Aston Villa are clinging on to their place in the top four after their 2-0 defeat to last placed Wolves, has them just three points ahead of fifth placed Liverpool. Villa were in the title race at the turn of the calendar year, however just two wins from their last eight league matches has seen them fall well and truly away from title aspirations.
Aston Villa’s attacking game has limited them, ranked 10th for goals (38) in a phase of the game where Chelsea will look to gain a big advantage. Villa will be looking for their defence to hold up, which is ranked third in the league having conceded only 30 goals. Much like Aston Villa, Chelsea aren’t in a great patch of form, with two draws against bottom six teams and a loss against Arsenal in their last three games.
The game will largely come down to which team can impose the style they want the game to be played in. A fast paced up and back game will suit Chelsea, while Unai Emery's team will be looking for a more controlled affair to allow their defence to get set behind the ball. Consistency has been an issue for both clubs, and that has been reflected in their recent records. They’ve both played in multiple draws over the last few weeks, and they will feature in another draw on Thursday morning, as both sides look to overcome their formslumps.
Newcastle vs Manchester United
St James’ Park, Thursday 5th March, 7:15am AEDT
Another win and another step forward in the Michael Carrick era at Old Trafford as Manchester United moved into third place on the table thanks to a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace. The Red Devils have produced six wins and one draw across their last seven games, in a remarkable turnaround after the sacking of Ruben Amorim. Newcastle on the other hand continue to slide, recording their fifth loss from their last six games after a 3-2 defeat to Everton on Sunday. Newcastle have fallen to thirteenth on the table as the pressure mounts on Eddie Howe.
Whilst the attacking production has been there for the majority of the season, Manchester United’s defence is beginning to show signs of improvement, led by goalkeeper Senne Lammens who has been outstanding over the last month. United have conceded only two goals across their last four games, and if they continue that form on Thursday, they’ll be in a strong position. Newcastle haven’t been as solid from a defensive standpoint, conceding 15 goals across their last six games - a worrying formline when they come up against the third best attacking team in the league.
The Magpies haven’t made St James’ Park a fortress this season, with a 7-2-5 record having them with just the 12th best home record in the league. United on the other hand have been solid away from home, ranking in the top six for away points. With the way Manchester United are playing at both ends of the pitch, with the freedom in attack and defensive discipline, they are hard to pick against. Newcastle haven’t shown signs of working their way out of their form slump and they are ripe for the picking.
Manchester United to Win
$2.60 (1 Unit)
