Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Caulfield on Wednesday, December 19th.
We haven’t raced here in a number of weeks and Caulfield is typically my favourite track to bet at, as most of the time it plays fairly, even though there’s a slight advantage to be on speed.
The track for today’s card is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 12m, which probably means it’s even more advantageous to be on speed today.
I’ve picked out four races below I’m keen to bet into!
Very, very keen to bet here because I think Royal Performance is just about a moral. He made his debut at Hamilton over 1200m and ran 2nd, beaten 0.5L by Coronel. Now that horse (Coronel) then came out yesterday at Mornington and ran superbly, beaten a nose at Mornington after being slowly away and charging home out wide. When Coronel beat Royal Performance at Hamilton, he did so running the 2nd fastest final 200m of the meeting (0.02 seconds slower than the fastest). All of this tells me the form is pretty strong and the step up to 1400m should suit Royal Performance at his second career start today. Drawn well, Mark Zahra takes over from apprentice Liam Riordan and he ticks plenty of boxes. Poony also comes out of that race at Hamilton, and while he was comfortably beaten back in 6th, he actually ran a quicker final 200m than Royal Performance. Expect him to improve second up and he’s a blowout chance at $31. French Success is on debut for the Lindsay Park team so has to be respected. Happy to have a good crack at Royal Performance ($2.30) and save on Poony ($31) and French Success ($11). Money back offers for 2nd and 3rd are also available.
Left Jaybee Out could be a good each way bet here in what seems a competitive race with few standouts. He did everything but win first up at Echuca and then had a horrid time of things at Moonee Valley, but bounced back with a strong win in a BM70 last start. Back to a BM64 today, he gets a weight swing on From The Clouds who beat him first up at Echuca and he should put himself right on the speed from barrier 1. With the rail out 12m, leading will be no disadvantage. $5.00/$2.00 looks a fair each way bet.
One of the more competitive races on the card but Ocean Deep has been very good in two runs back from a spell this time in. She went down by a nose first up on the Lakeside course at Sandown, before finishing off well into 3rd on the Hillside course last start, despite being inconvenienced by a fall at the 800m mark. That race rated relatively well on the day. She’s carried apprentices in both starts this time in but senior jockey Luke Nolen takes over today, so even though she has to carry more weight, she should get absolutely every chance to run these down. Ignore her two failures at Caulfield last prep when she wasn’t going well (and they were harder races than this anyway).
Another competitive one to finish off the day but there’s three main chances I’m looking at. Blue Bear should be ready to peak third up. He’s placed in both starts this prep, including a narrow defeat on the Hillside course at Sandown last start. Even though that race rated poorly relative to the day, he ran the best sectionals of the race. He’s never finished outside the top two from three starts when third up from a spell and has finished top two in both starts at the distance. He’s got a pretty unfashionable stable/jockey combination so there’s a chance we may get better than the $7.50 on offer currently. From barrier 3 he could go close. Shaq is another one I expect to improve with Craig Williams going on. He’ll be rock-hard fit after five runs back from a spell and his record at the distance is good. Tavistock Dancer saluted on debut at Kilmore. He will need to improve on that given the race didn’t rate too highly but he’s got the potential to do so given it’s just his second career start today. He finds a very winnable race. Happy to back Blue Bear at $7.50, with something small on Shaq at $11 and save on Tavistock Dancer at $6.00.
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