Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, September 9th.
Midweek metro racing returns to Canterbury in Sydney this Wednesday, for seven races on what looks a very tricky betting card. The track is rated a Soft 5 but there is rain predicted throughout the day. The rail is in the True position so expect it to play on speed/rails.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below!
Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 9th
Best Bet: Race 4 – (7) Achiever
Best Value: Race 5 – (10) Taken Everything / (8) LIberty Sun
(2) Cadenabbia ran a good race on debut at Kensington behind Game Theory, beaten 0.2L into 2nd. Game Theory had previously raced behind Joviality, who has since come out and won again, so that form reference continues to hold up. No doubt James McDonald will be trying to hold a spot in the running rail, as that’s been a heavily favoured position in running in the past few months at Canterbury. From there, he looks the horse to beat. (5) Canadian Spice is knocking on the door, with three good runs at Newcastle this prep. She had no luck first up when caught wide throughout, and has followed that with a 3rd and a 2nd placing. There was a tactics change to be ridden with the intention to lead last start, which they did, so it will be interesting to see if those same tactics are employed from barrier 1 here. (10) Wild Irish was disappointing first up but was vetted prep-race and didn’t have much go right during the run. She draws softly in 3 and can improve, while (1) Skagerak makes his Australian debut for Waller, having previously raced in New Zealand. He’s drawn awkwardly in barrier 8.
I think we’ll see (3) Private Cheetah lead here. Tim Clark is booked to ride for the Moore stable and in his most recent trial, he led all the way to win by 3L. Expect to see him ridden aggressively early to find the rail from barrier 4 and from there, he will take some catching if Canterbury plays similarly to what we’ve become accustomed to. (8) Pretty Good should be able to camp behind the speed on the rail from barrier 1, which makes her a very good chance for Chris Waller and James McDonald. She found the line OK in her recent trial and if luck comes her way, I’d expect her to be right in the finish at $6.00.
Saver: (8) Pretty Good $5.50
(3) Private Cheetah
$3.60
The key here will be how wet the track is, as there is a fair amount of rain predicted on the day. If it comes and we’re racing on the worse part of soft, (2) Monsieur Sisu could be very hard to beat. He ticks a lot of important boxes. He draws barrier 1, maps to lead, loves it wet and loves this track and distance. He comes off a win here three weeks ago in similar conditions and under these conditions, he’ll be hard to run down. (5) Relucent really gets his chance to win another race. He’s had two starts back from a spell, he gets up to 1900m third up, JMac jumps on and he can sit right behind the leader from barrier 2. The issue he, he’s won just one race from 14 starts and that was a Pakenham maiden, but he has run 2nd in both starts when third up from a spell. He should be right thereabouts. (4) Guise went close in Saturday grade last start and finds another suitable race. She will appreciate the soft track, while I’m ready to jump off (1) Home Ground now, especially with the wet track. The only positive for him today is Nash Rawiller taking over from the apprentices that have been riding him, but he’s had his chances and he does his best racing on firm ground.
How is (7) Achiever $4.20 and on the third line of betting here? He started $12 first up in the G3 Ming Dynasty, drops back to a midweek BM72 and draws barrier 1 on a track that’s been horribly rails-biased all year? The blinkers come off, he finds wet ground which he seems to do his best racing on, JMac jumps on and this is a much easier race than what he contested first up. He looks a very good bet at those odds. (1) Love Shack Baby returned with a great run first up, beaten a length over 1400m at Kensington. He has a better second up record than he does first up, so he should improve off that and if he can get a good run from barrier 7, should be competitive. His only start at this track and distance was a win. (2) Knowitall Jack finds a suitable race again but we’ve been saying that all prep. He maps to lead from barrier 4 so will take some catching, but he’s run out of chances with me. (8) Rathvilly Miss comes off back-to-back wins at Goulburn and Kembla Grange but I’m not sure that warrants her starting favourite here.
This race has been hammered by scratchings. (10) Taken Everything has been trialling well leading into her reappearance today. She resumes from a lengthy spell here (47 weeks) so it’s hard to know what level of fitness she will be at, but she’s looked good in her two trials. She’s raced right up on speed in both of those and has been under a tight hold all the way through the line. Her first trial was behind Mr Mosaic and Prime Candidate – both of which have come out and won in town – before finishing 2nd in a trial containing Fituese, Coruscate and Hilo – all very well performed horses. She has trialled well before and failed on raceday, but she showed plenty of promise early on. Interested to see what the market does too. (8) Liberty Sun is a $21 outsider but maps to find the rail and the lead from barrier 3 here. Third up from a spell, could take some catching especially if the rail is hot. Has won over this track and distance in the past and looks a value chance. (6) Axe is another that races on speed and can improve from his good run first up at Kensington.
Value: (8) Liberty Sun $9.00
(10) Taken Everything
$6.50
Another tricky race. (1) Big Parade looks a horse sure to be popular here. He started favourite but did drift late in betting at his first start for Mark Newnham at Kensington, where he only managed 4th, beaten 1.4L. They throw the blinkers on for the first time today and I suspect if he jumps cleaner than he did first up, he’ll be ridden much further forward. They elect to go with senior rider Josh Parr rather than a claiming apprentice, meaning he carries the full 62kg. He draws the all-important barrier 1, so there’s plenty of boxes he ticks, but it’s also hard to be very confident with him after that first run. I was pretty keen to have something on Savoury at double figure odds but that's been scratched this morning. (7) Plonka now goes on top. He was only 1.8L off Prime Star in Saturday grade first up, and didn’t get a whole lot of luck in the process. Back to Wednesday grade here so should find this easier, and he’s won two of his three starts when second up, so he looks well placed.
Very tricky race to close things out. (10) Dubai Star can find the front here and should find the rail. If that’s the case, she’ll be hard to run down if the track is favouring those on pace. She did a good job first up at Kensington and looks even better suited here at Canterbury. (12) Super Longlea should be ridden more aggressively from barrier 1 here but in any case, it obviously lands on the rail in the run and that has been the key factor at Canterbury for most of the year. (6) Alchermes draws barrier 2 and might also be able to find the rail. She’s only had four career starts for two wins. This is tougher than what she raced against in her debut prep but she’s capable of measuring up. (14) Rock My Wand went back to last first up at Kensington and ran home OK. She might sit further forward today and can improve. The wetter, the better for her. (2) Avon River should measure up on form alone but barrier 7 is a tricky one here at Canterbury. The stable have had six runners at this track this season and five have finished in the top three so she will be thereabouts.
