Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, August 7th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Soft 5 and the rail out 8m.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 4 - (5) High Low Bet
Best Value Bet: Race 5 - (2) Metamorphic & (1) Shock Alert
The rail being out 8m could mean we're looking for horses drawn inside barriers that have the ability to race up on speed. I'll be backing two horses to kick off the day here. (1) Frosty Rocks was beaten a length in Saturday grade last time out and drops back to the midweeks today. They had a change of tactics last start by riding the horse up on speed and I expect that to remain the case here from barrier 2 with Tim Clark aboard. He has to carry the weight but he's rated highly in this. The value could be the Godolphin horse (6) Tisane who ran 2nd on debut at Wyong. She went forward in the small field on that occasion, so from barrier 1 expect a positive ride here. She should measure up.
I find it very hard to believe (3) Seeingisbelieving won't at least run a place here. He's hardly an each way price at $4.00/$1.67 but this is only a field of eight runners and there's plenty who are making up the numbers. This horse has had eight starts this prep and hasn't finished outside the top two in any of them. He comes off a 2nd placing at this track and distance last start when beaten just 0.2L. Should roll forward to sit outside the leader from barrier 8 and he'll be right in the finish from there. His main market rival (2) Island Missile has been beaten a combined 22L in his past three starts and seems to go better on firm ground rather than soft. He's also going to be coming from last. (6) Hoof Hustler might just need one more run but he can be followed in his next couple of starts.
Interesting race. We see the return of (4) Rome here, who was twice placed at Group 3 level as a two-year-old and makes his return as a three-year-old today. He's drawn barrier 1 which makes for an interesting tactical battle. I feel he'll sit third the rail behind (12) Deference and (11) You Rang. Personally, I'll be taking him on at $2.80. This is his chance to break through for a win but he's not a horse I'd be backing with any confidence. The $5.50 for You Rang is a reasonable price. She trialled well leading into her debut at Kembla last week. She was outgunned by Escaped, but there was 3L back to 3rd and that form might stand up. Will definitely take up a position on speed and should be in the fight for a long time. Deference might hold her out for the lead on the rail. He gets Bowman booked to ride and has to be rated a good chance. The value might be Waller's (7) Bellarine, who has had two trials this preparation and has won both, which is unusual for that stable. Glyn Schofield rides which isn't a positive but at $10 he's a bit of value.
This is a tough one because there's one horse in my mind that stands out on form but its hardly best suited racing at Canterbury. The horse in reference is (5) High Low Bet, who comes out of a Saturday race behind Bangkok on July 20th. That race has already produced three winners, with Bangkok, The Party Girl and La Chica Bella all winning at Randwick on Saturday! High Low Bet ran 4th in the race on July 20th, beaten just 1.9L. Up in distance, back in grade and gets James McDonald on board, so she ticks plenty of boxes. The negatives are the fact she's won just two of her 16 starts and she tends to get a long way back, so with the rail out 8m at Canterbury, there's the chance she might be left with too much to do. With that said, I have to back her here based on the strength of the form out of that race, and the fact she won prior to that. $4.20 is a more than acceptable price, we just need plenty of things to go right. Of the on-pacers, (4) Positive Peace should give a bold sight.
One of the more competitive races of the day. (2) Metamorphic gets his last chance here. He went close first up in this sort of grade here at Canterbury, before being outclassed in Saturday grade at his past two starts. He probably didn't appreciate the wet ground in those races either. He'll be racing on a Soft 5 at the absolute worst today, so should relish the firmer ground, and his overall record at Canterbury is good. He's only missed a place once from seven starts over this track and distance. He could be a decent each way price at $6.00. (1) Shock Alert might be the smokey at $34. He struggled first up but that was Saturday grade and Bangkok has come out of that race and won his next two starts. Shock Alert ran last first up last preparation before coming out and running 3rd, beaten 0.2L second up. I like the booking of Nash Rawiller here and I'm hoping they elect to roll forward rather than go back. If they can find a position on speed, it wouldn't shock me at all to see him turn his form around and run a big race at huge odds. (5) Adana should have more than one career win to his name. He resumes here and he went close first up last prep so has to be a chance. (9) Touch Of Mink was very heavily backed first up but she was checked jumping out of the gates, settled at the back of the field and was three-wide. She ran the best sectionals in the race and she gets blinkers on for the first time today so if the money comes again, look out for her. (12) Havin' Fun not hopeless at all.
If he's anywhere near his best, (2) Roosevelt wins this. He's the best horse in the race, he returns as a gelding and the main market rivals have some serious queries. The query for Roosevelt is whether he's a wet tracker and if he can show the same ability on firmer ground, but Bowman rides, he's drawn soft and looks to have a class edge. (6) Calabasas is first up from a 93-week spell and is a $6 chance here, (8) Military Academy is first up for 53 weeks and is $7.50, while (10) Irish Songs comes out of a Highway Handicap and is $6.50. (12) Sebring Express is going better than its form suggests. It will get a long way back in the run but it's not the worst hope in the race.
(1) Silent Explorer goes on top basically by default here. I can't find much substance to this race and Silent Explorer is about the best form reference. He won over this track and distance two starts ago before being outclassed in Saturday grade at Rosehill last start. He's now won two from three at the track and distance and he gets a big jockey change today with James McDonald going on to replace Glyn Schofield. He should jump and just about lead from barrier 3 and from there he should be very hard to run down. The only little query I have is if the track gets to the good range, as he probably needs it a Soft 5 or worse to show his best. But on form, he is quite clearly the one to beat here.
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