Saturday afternoon football continues with Essendon desperate to bounce back after a horror showing in Round 1, as they host Brisbane at Marvel Stadium from 4:25pm. Will the Bombers produce a response, or will the Lions show why they are premiership contenders?
Jack Tobin has got you covered with a preview and tips for Saturday twilight footy, and make sure to check our AFL Tips page for coverage on every game throughout the 2022 AFL season.
Essendon vs Brisbane Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 26th March, 4:25pm AEDT
Essendon
Injuries: Harry Jones, Kyle Langford, Will Snelling, Zach Reid, Michael Hurley (Out)
It’s mixed news on the injury front for Essendon as Kyle Langford suffered a hamstring injury against Geelong which will see him miss 8-10 weeks, while Will Snelling (calf) and Harry Jones (ankle) are still expected to be out for the first month of the season. On the positive side, Essendon will regain Jake Stringer and Aaron Francis for Saturday’s clash.
Essendon were demolished by a rampant Geelong outfit last week, and the Bombers midfield which was a strong point last season, was blown off the park. Essendon were minus 42 for contested possessions, minus 24 for clearances and minus 15 for inside 50’s against Geelong. Jake Stringer’s inclusion should help their centre bounce work, but they’ll need a major lift from their entire midfield.
Essendon’s forward line is a major concern with three of their top five goal kickers from 2021 missing, in Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (injury), Harry Jones (injury) and Cale Hooker (retirement). Peter Wright and Aaron Francis will bear a lot of responsibility up forward, and the Bombers will need to get goals out of their midfield.
Brisbane
Injuries: Keidean Coleman, Eric Hipwood (Out)
Jarrod Berry, Dayne Zorko and Daniel Rich all passed fitness tests during the week meaning the Lions only had to make one change at selection this week. Mitch Robinson is out through suspension, with Harry Sharp being elevated to the starting 22 after being the medical sub in Round One.
Brisbane fought back from a 24 point deficit late in the third quarter, to storm home to an eleven point win over Port Adelaide last week. Lachie Neale was back to his best with 31 disposals and 7 clearances and Joe Daniher booted four majors. However it was Birsbane’s back six who kept them in the game, with Port Adelaide dominating the inside 50 count for the first two and a half quarters.
Brisbane’s scoring power is their biggest advantage in this clash, the Lions were the highest scoring team in the AFL in 2021, averaging 96 points per game. The Lions will have five players in their side on Saturday who kicked over 27 goals last season in Charlie Cameron (55), Joe Daniher (46), Lincoln McCarthy (36), Zac Bailey (31) and Daniel McStay (28). In comparison, Essendon will have two (Jake Stringer and Peter Wright.) After seeing the way Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle tormented the Bombers back line last week, the Brisbane forwards will be fancying their chances.
Match Prediction
Brisbane showed what a quality side they are last week, finding a way to win when they weren’t playing at their best. The Lions had struggles with their accuracy in front over goal that has haunted them in finals of the past few seasons, kicking 11.14 against the Power. However Brisbane would have been pleased with their performance last week, with plenty of room for growth.
Brisbane has dominated Essendon in their last two meetings with 57 and 63 point victories. The midfield battle will be fascinating between two very talented midfields, however the Bombers just don’t have the scoring power to go with the Lions across four quarters. Marvel Stadium has proven to be a high scoring ground this season with an average total score of 189 points, which will suit a side with the scoring capability that Brisbane possess. The Lions will pick up another comfortable win over the Bombers.
Brisbane -16.5
$2.00 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Tom Hawkins tore apart Essendon’s backline last week with a four goal first half, and with James Stewart set to go head to head with Joe Daniher this week, the former Bomber will be an excellent chance to produce a big day in front of goal. Daniher has been strong at Marvel Stadium across his career, kicking 42 goals from his last seventeen games at the venue.
Joe Daniher 3+ Goals ($2.15 with Ladbrokes)
Lachie Neale has been utterly dominant against the Bombers for the entirety of his career. The 2020 Brownlow medalist has returns of 38, 33, 40, 30, 28, 24, 40, 42 and 33 disposals from his last nine games against Essendon. That’s an average of 34 disposals in that period, and after the way Essendon’s midfield was comprehensively beaten last week, it’s hard to see Neale not having a big day.
Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals ($1.48 with Ladbrokes)
Hugh McCluggage had an outstanding 2021 campaign, with a second straight All-Australian squad selection. McCluggage hit the 25 disposal mark thirteen times last season, including a 32 disposal performance against Essendon. He was also excellent at Marvel Stadium last season with 28 and 33 disposal returns in his two games at Marvel Stadium last season. McCluggage had a quiet performance in Round One, and he’ll be looking to bounce back against the Bombers.
Hugh McCluggage 25+ Disposals ($1.95 with Ladbrokes)
