It’s an eight point clash on Saturday night at the SCG as the Swans and Saints scrap to keep their place in the eight. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses last week and will be desperate to bounce back in a massive clash kicking off at 7:25pm!
Jack Tobin has you covered with a preview for Saturday night football, and the BeforeYouBet team has you covered with AFL Tips for every game this season.
Sydney vs St Kilda Preview & Betting Tips
SCG, Saturday 25th June, 7:25pm AEST
Sydney
Injuries: Josh Kennedy, Sam Naismith, Angus Sheldrick, Peter Ladhams (suspension)
Sydney have a relatively clean bill of health with the only concerns being Josh Kennedy and Sam Naismith’s long term injuries. The Swans will be forced into at least one change with Peter Ladhams out through suspension. With Tom Hickey making a successful return from injury in the VFL last week, it seems an obvious swap for the Swans that will boost their side nicely.
After impressive wins over Richmond and Melbourne, Sydney were beaten comfortably by an undermanned Port Adelaide outfit at the Adelaide Oval in Round 14. A six goal to one third quarter was the difference in the 21 point defeat. Sydney were obliterated on the outside, with Port winning the disposal count by 78 and the uncontested possession count by 76. The Swans inability to win clearances hurt their overall game, and they’ll need to sharpen that this weekend.
Isaac Heeney’s return to form was the biggest positive for the Swans last weekend. Heeney had kicked only three goals in the five games leading into Round 14, but produced a 4 goal, 16 disposal performance that kept the Swans in the game. Heeney provides a matchup nightmare for a St Kilda side that conceded 32 scoring shots last weekend.
St Kilda
Injuries: Jack Bytel, Nick Coffield, Jarryn Geary, Dan Hannebery, Jack Hayes, Michito Owens
Captain Jack Steele is set to return from a shoulder injury that has seen him miss the last five weeks. Daniel Mckenzie has cleared concussion protocols and will be available for selection, however Mitchito Owens hasn’t exited protocols and appears unlikely to take on the Swans.
St Kilda put in their most disappointing performance of the season last week, being comprehensively beaten by an Essendon side who had only won two games leading in. The 35 point margin flattered the Saints, who had just 18 scoring shots to Essendon’s 32. St Kilda were outplayed in just about every facet of the game recording -54 disposals, -23 contested possessions, -15 inside 50’s, and -13 tackles. Coach Brett Ratten was fuming with his side’s performance, and the Saints will be eager to respond.
The Saints have shown an ability to bounce back this season, after a disappointing loss in Round One to Collingwood the Saints peeled off five consecutive wins. After back to back losses in Rounds 7 & 8, St Kilda bounced back with a stirring win over Geelong. With an incredibly difficult fixture to end the season, the Saints will need to show some serious resilience if they are to feature in September.
Match Prediction
It’s remarkable to think that the loser will likely be outside of the top eight at the completion of this weekend, given both Sydney and St Kilda have sat comfortably inside the eight for the majority of the season. Sydney have been inside the top eight all fourteen rounds this season, while St Kilda have been in the top eight since Round Four.
The SCG has not been a happy hunting ground for the Saints, losing their last six games against the Swans at the venue, with their last win at the SCG coming back in 2009. Sydney has owned this match up over the last decade, winning eleven of the last thirteen fixtures between the two sides.
The 1-39 market looks the way to go in this clash, the Swans average winning margin at the SCG this season has been 27 points. St Kilda’s average losing margin this season is 22 points, and they’re yet to lose a game by more than 38 points. The Saints are the fifth ranked defence in the AFL conceding just 73 points per game this year, and will be well suited to defending a small ground at the SCG. The Swans will be too good, but it will be a close encounter.
Sydney 1-39
$2.00 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Luke Parker is putting together an outstanding season, averaging 23 disposals per game and recording above 25 disposals in three of his last four games. Parker’s dominance against St Kilda across his career is remarkable and he’ll be full of confidence coming into this fixture. Since 2013, Parker has played eleven games against St Kilda for disposal returns of 30, 27, 27, 28, 25, 21, 28, 33, 33, 27 and 25. 10 out of his last eleven games against the Saints he’s hit the 25 disposal mark, at $1.70 he’s excellent value.
Luke Parker 25+ Disposals, $1.70 with Ladbrokes
Despite the loss to Essendon, Jack Sinclair extended his 30 disposal streak to five games after a 31 disposal outing last week. Sinclair is in the top ten in the AFL for disposals this season, and looks a lock to be an All-Australian selection. St Kilda have had an inside 50 differential of -34 in the last fortnight, meaning there’s been plenty of opportunities for their defenders to rack up disposals.
Jack Sinlcair 30+ Disposals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes
Jade Gresham has enjoyed his first injury free season in three years, putting up some outstanding numbers through the midfield and up forward. Gresham was by far St Kilda’s best player last week with 28 disposals and 3 goals. Gresham his kicked 2+ goals in his last three games and with Jack Steele coming back into the Saints midfield, Gresham will likely spend some more minutes forward this week.
Jade Gresham 2+ Goals, $3.25 with Ladbrokes
