AFL heads to the Top End for the first time in 2022 as the Suns take on the Hawks at TIO Stadium on Saturday night. It’s a battle of 12th vs 13th, with the winner of this clash remaining in the top eight race.
Jack Tobin has you covered with his tips for Saturday night footy and be sure to check out BeforeYouBet’s AFL Tips page for previews on every game this season.
Gold Coast vs Hawthorn Betting Tips
TIO Stadium, Saturday 28th May, 7:40pm AEST
Gold Coast
Injuries: Rory Thompson, Jy Farrar, Jack Lukosius, Josh Corbett, Ben King, Bodhi Uwland
Rory Thompson’s fairytale return to the Suns side lasted just three weeks, after a meniscus injury last week set to have Thompson for an extended stint on the sidelines. Jye Farrar will also be out this week after suffering a concussion against the Bulldogs. Sean Lemmens is in health & safety protocols, while Brayden Fiorini has been dropped after picking up just nine disposals last week. Caleb Graham, Jeremy Sharp and Alex Davies have been brought into the side this week.
After back to back upset wins over Sydney and Fremantle, Gold Coast put together an impressive effort in a 19 point loss to the Bulldogs in Ballarat last weekend. The margin was seven points with forty seconds left on the clock, before two late goals made the scoreline look more comfortable than it had been for the Dogs. Stewie Dew’s side has begun to build some substance, with their 4-6 record still leaving themselves within striking distance of the top eight.
The Suns have the number one ruckman in the competition this season in Jarrod Witts, who will be coming up against a Hawthorn outfit without a recognised ruckman. Witts leads the AFL in hitouts and hitouts to advantage by considerable margins, and has attended 241 more ruck contests than any other ruckman in the AFL. If Gold Coast are to win, their captain needs to have another monster game.
Hawthorn
Injuries: Tyler Brockman, Will Day, Jack Gunston, Emerson Jeka, Max Lynch, Ben McEvoy, Tom Phillips, Ned Reeves, Josh Ward
The Hawks do not have a single ruckman available for selection this week, with Max Lynch joining Ben McEvoy and Ned Reeves on the injury list after sufferring a concussion against the Lions. To add to their problems in the middle of the ground, Jaeger O’Meara is out with a hamstring injury. Jack Scrimshaw is back after missing with a shoulder complaint last week, and Connor MacDonald is back after being managed against the Lions.
Hawthorn broke a four game losing streak with an upset win over Brisbane last week in Tasmania. The Hawks efficiency inside 50 was the deciding factor, converting 36% of their inside 50’s into goals. Hawthorn lost the hitout count by 44, but managed to win the clearance count by one, they will need to produce another big performance at stoppages given the ruck discrepancy they’ll face on Saturday night.
Hawthorn kicked a remarkable 12.1 from set shots last week, and have been one of the most accurate sides in front of goal this season. If the Hawks can continue their outstanding efficiency inside forward 50, they’ll keep themselves in the game despite Witt’s dominance in the middle of the ground.
Match Prediction
Both teams come into this game with a 4-6 record, however the Suns form in the last month has been far superior to Hawthorn’s. The Suns are ranked third in the AFL for clearances, and they can gain a huge advantage from their in-form midfield in this clash. The dominance that Jarrod Witts will have in this game is going to be too much for the Hawks to overcome.
Despite the impressive win last week, it’s important to remember that Hawthorn have won two of their last eight and have conceded an average of 107 points per game over their last five games. Gold Coast beat the Hawks by 37 points when these sides last met, and the conditions in Darwin will be very similar to what they’re accustomed to playing in Queensland.
Gold Coast -3.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Jai Newcombe’s stock is beginning to rise within the AFL community, but he’s still providing excellent value in the disposal markets. Newcombe picked up 27 disposals in the win over Brisbane last week, and is averaging 25 disposals per game across his last six matches. Newcombe attends more centre bounces than any other Hawthorn player, giving him consistent opportunities to rack up the footy.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals, $1.78 with Ladbrokes
Dylan Moore has established himself as one of the elite small forwards in the AFL this season. Moore ranks first for disposals amongst small forwards, and his sixteen goals is the second most of any Hawk this season. Moore has kicked goals in all but one of his games this season, and has hit the multiple goal mark on five occasions. Moore had an outstanding game against the Suns last season, kicking 2.2 to go along with 18 disposals.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals, $1.90 with Ladbrokes
Noah Anderson has become arguably the most important piece of the Suns midfield this season, with his balance between his inside and outside game beginning to shine. Anderson is averaging 28 disposals per game in his last six outings, with half of those games seeing Anderson reach the 30+ mark. With teams focusing their defensive attention on Touk Miller, as well as the dominance Jarrod Witts is set to have in this match, it could be a big night for Anderson.
Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals, $2.15 with Ladbrokes
