St Kilda heads to Adelaide to take on the Crows on Saturday night football at the Adelaide Oval from 7:30pm! Can the Saints continue their winning ways after a stirring win last weekend? Or will Adelaide end their three game losing streak?
Jack Tobin has you covered with tips and a preview for this clash, and head to our AFL Tips page to get tips for every game from the BeforeYouBet experts.
Adelaide vs St Kilda Preview & Betting Tips
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 21st May, 7:30pm AEST
Injuries: Rory Sloane, Paul Seedsman
With Lachlan Murphy returning from a neck injury this week, Adelaide has the smallest injury list in the AFL. Rory Sloane (ACL) and Paul Seedsman (concussion) are the only unavailable players on the Crows list. Matthew Nicks has made two changes to the side this week, with Riley Thilthorpe and Lachlan Murphy replacing Elliot Himmleburg and Lachlan Sholl.
Adelaide looked like causing a major boilover last weekend, when they led Brisbane by 15 points during a dominant second quarter. However from the 22nd minute of the second quarter onwards, Brisbane kicked eleven goals to two, to run out to a 36 point victory. After being 3-3 at Round Six, the Crows have now lost three games in a row by margins of 59, 48 and 36 points.
In all three games Adelaide has conceded over 100 points and the task doesn’t get any easier with the lack of tall defenders the Crows have in their side this weekend. Nick Murray is the only recognised key defender, meaning Tom Doedee, Luke Brown and Mitch Hinge will need to play above their height. Coming up against a forward line featuring Max King, Rowan Marshall, Tim Membrey and Cooper Sharman, the Crows will be physically outmatched in their backline.
Injuries: Jack Steele, Jack Higgins, Dan Butler, Nick Coffield, Jack Hayes, Dan Hannebery
The Saints don’t have the league’s biggest injury list, but it’s one of the most impactful injury lists. Captain Jack Steele courageously played through a shoulder injury last week that will see him miss 6-8 weeks, while Jack Higgins has entered concussion protocols. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is back after being managed against Geelong and Marcus Windhager has been upgraded to the starting 22 after being the medi-sub last week.
A stunning seven goal third quarter was the catalyst for the Saints gutsy ten point win over Geelong last week. Brad Crouch (36 disposals), Jack Sinclair (31) and Jade Gresham (30) led the way for St Kilda, while the Saints got excellent production out of their talls with Paddy Ryder (3 goals), Max King (2) and Tim Membrey (2) all impacting. They’ve got a major advantage in that area this weekend, and it’s going to be a major factor in this clash.
The Saints have one of the best ruck rotations in the AFL with Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall, and they’ll be full of confidence coming up against Kieran Strachan. Strachan was smashed by Oscar McInerny in just his fourth career game, losing the hitout count by 25. If that happened against McInerny, it’s scary to think the advantage Ryder and Marshall can give to St Kilda.
The losses of Steele and Higgins are big for St Kilda, however this side is good enough to cover their absences. The advantage the Saints have in the ruck and up forward is a factor that is too substantial for Adelaide to bridge. The Crows have conceded an average score of 110 points in their last three weeks and it’s difficult to see their defence finding a way to improve this week.
Adelaide have had an average losing margin of 31 points this season and in their last three weeks, their average losing margin is 47 points. The Saints six wins have come by an average margin of 27 points, so despite a couple of key outs, the line shouldn’t be an issue for St Kilda to cover in this match.
St Kilda -17.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Max King’s 23 goals has him sixth in the Coleman Medal race, and King has kicked multiple goals in seven of his nine games this season. King has kicked two goals in each of his last three games and has kicked two goals in both of his games against Adelaide so far in his career. With the lack of key defenders the Crows have, King could have a field day on Saturday night.
Max King 3+ Goals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes
Jade Gresham has had an excellent return from injury, averaging 23 disposals per game through the first nine games of the season. Gresham picked up 30 disposals against Geelong last weekend and has averaged 12.5 CBA’s over the last four games. With the Saints number one CBA player Jack Steele out, Gresham should see an increase in his midfield minutes, and should have plenty of opportunity to win plenty of the footy.
Jade Gresham 25+ Disposals, $1.85 with Ladbrokes
Jackson Hately did not attend a single centre bounce in his first two games, but has attended 40 CBA’s in the last two weeks, which saw him record a career high 27 disposals. Hately’s increase in role since the second half of the Crows clash against Carlton, provides excellent value in the disposal markets.
Jackson Hately 25+ Disposals, $3 with Ladbrokes