The second of this weekend’s qualifying finals will feature Geelong taking on Collingwood at a packed MCG on Saturday night. Jake Smit previews the match and brings you his best bets right here!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season including the finals, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Geelong vs Collingwood Betting Tips
MCG, Saturday 3rd September, 4:35pm (AEST)
Geelong
Injuries: Flynn Kroeger, Sam Simpson, Cooper Stephens, Cooper Whyte, James Willis.
Geelong are blessed with a very healthy list heading into yet another finals campaign. All of their best 22 are available to play, including Jeremy Cameron, Rhys Stanley and Mitch Duncan who have all recovered from injuries in time for Saturday night.
The Cats capped off an impeccable home and away season with a dominant win over the lowly Eagles in Round 23. That win was their 13th in a row and meant that they finished two games clear and percentage ahead of second spot on the ladder. It’s been a different gameplan that’s got the Cats to the top this season, with their high-scoring style of play seeing them get three forwards into the All-Australian team.
Collingwood
Injuries: Charlie Dean, Brodie Grundy, Ollie Henry, Nathan Kreuger, Reef McInnes, Tom Wilson.
Collingwood also have a healthy list heading into their first final in a couple of years. Brodie Grundy has missed most of the season due to injury and will continue to miss, while Ollie Henry is the other who would probably get a game if fit. Taylor Adams has recovered from an injury layoff just in time to take his place in the 22.
The Magpies finished their home and away season with a match that was indicative of most of their performances in 2022. They came back right at the death to break Blues’ fans hearts, defeating them by one point courtesy of another clutch goal from Jamie Elliott. Remarkably, the Magpies have won nine matches by seven points or less this season, which has seen them finish in fourth and earn a double chance in the finals.
Match Prediction
Matches involving the Magpies have been the hardest to get a read on this season, but the bookies seem to think the Cats are only a 16-point better side than them in the handicap market. While I certainly agree that the Cats are the better team in this contest, I believe the handicap should be a lot bigger than that when you consider the difference between these two teams at their best, coupled with the big edge in experience the Cats hold. The Magpies could very well dig in and make this another close match, but the more likely outcome in my opinion is that the best side in the competition close out a comfortable win.
Geelong -16.5 Points
$2 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Jeremy Cameron is a nightmare matchup for all opposition teams, but particularly the Magpies. Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe both gamble a lot in defence and that gives fast key forwards like Cameron the opportunity to get off the leash. He had six goals against them earlier this season and could have another big game on Saturday.
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals ($2.20 at Ladbrokes)
Patrick Dangerfield isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still able to lift in big games and I expect this one to be no different. He’s been managed nicely over the course of the season and is primed to have a big say in the midfield battle against the Magpies.
Patrick Dangerfield 25+ Disposals ($2.20 at Ladbrokes)
Tom Stewart also fits the bill as a big game player and is now back to full match fitness after a long layoff due to suspension. The Magpies allow a lot of possession to opposition defenders and that fits right into Stewart and co.’s hands. I like him a lot in the disposal markets on Saturday.
Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals ($1.68 at Ladbrokes)
