The Cats thrashed the pants off the rock-bottom Roos to set up a fantastic top-of-the-table clash with Melbourne next Thursday night. While they are the two favourites for the 2022 AFL premiership, the Tigers are starting to purr as they have snuck into the Top 8 and are now a genuine premiership contender. There are still 12 teams in contention for finals, although losses for Gold Coast and Port Adelaide leaves them in some trouble, while the Saints and Bulldogs have fallen out of the Top 8 and will need to turn their form around soon!
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 16 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 16 Overview
One of the stand out performances of the season from Jeremy Cameron in Round 16 with the rare feat of 30 disposals and 4 goals in a brilliant performance. Cameron would be leading the Brownlow count at Geelong and is now into the Top 6 on our Brownlow Leaderboard. Typically key forwards don't poll well in the Brownlow, but Cameron is far more than a stay-at-home forward and at $60 in the Brownlow betting markets, you'd do a lot worse in terms of a value bet right now.
While Lachie Neale and Clayton Oliver are likely to be in the votes in Round 16, Christian Petracca seems likely to poll the 3 to close the gap a little on the leaders. Meanwhile Patrick Cripps may not have polled a vote in the last eight rounds and is quickly slipping out of contention unless he can turn his form around.
AFL Round 16 Brownlow Votes
Brisbane 16.12.108 def Western Bulldogs 9.13.67
The Lions are roaring once more as they easily accounted for the Bulldogs to kick off Round 16 action. Charlie Cameron was the difference with 4 goals, and 5 goal assists, among 12 disposals in a brilliant showing by the small forward. Keidean Coleman (24 disposals, 10 marks) controlled half-back while Lachie Neale (33 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Hugh McLuggage (26 disposals, 7 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) were prolific in the middle. Tom Liberatore was best for the Dogs with 33 disposals, 7 marks, 8 clearances and 1 goal.
Charlie Cameron - 3
Keidean Coleman - 2
Lachie Neale - 1
Carlton 10.18 78 def by St.Kilda 14.9.93
The Saints stunned the Blues in an important win for their finals hopes. Jack Sinclair was excellent with 37 disposals and 11 marks in defence in a clear best-on-ground. Brad Hill (27 disposals) and Rowan Marshall (22 disposals, 12 marks, 10 hitouts) were also effective. Sam Walsh (33 disposals, 6 clearances) and Patrick Cripps (31 disposals, 8 clearances) are a chance to pinch a vote.
Jack Sinclair - 3
Rowan Marshall - 1
Brad Hill - 1
Sam Walsh - 1
Essendon 15.5.95 def Sydney 12.14.86
After losing to the bottom-placed Eagles last week, the Dons bounced back with a great win over the Swans. How’s your AFL tipping going? Zach Merrett (24 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals), Nick Hind (25 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) and Dyson Heppell (25 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) were best for the Dons in an even contribution from their side. Chad Warner stood out for the Swans with 25 disposals, 7 clearances and 3 goals, while Luke Parker had 26 disposals, 6 tackles and 9 clearances in his 250th game.
Zach Merrett - 3
Chad Warner - 2
Nick Hind - 1
Adelaide 10.5.65 def by Melbourne 14.10.94
The Dees did enough to shake off the Crows as their 2022 season rolls on. Their stars were dominant with Christian Petracca (33 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) and Clayton Oliver (36 disposals, 13 tackles, 6 clearances) certain to contend for the three Brownlow votes. Ed Langdon (33 disposals, 1 goal) was also relentless in his running on the wing. Jordan Dawson (30 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Rory Laird (32 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) were best for the Crows.
Christian Petracca - 3
Clayton Oliver - 2
Ed Langdon - 0.5
Jordan Dawson - 0.5
Geelong 21.18.144 def North Melbourne 5.2.32
The Cats were purring as they destroyed North Melbourne who were completely overwhelmed at the Cattery. Jeremy Cameron was superb with 30 disposals, 10 marks and 4 goals in one of the most complete matches you’ll ever see. The Cats had winners everywhere with Mitch Duncan (30 disposals, 14 marks), Cam Guthrie (29 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Tom Atkins (18 disposals, 11 tackles) and Mark Blicavs (25 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) all excellent contributors. Up forward big Tom Hawkins (6 goals, 19 disposals, 10 marks) was unstoppable. Luke Davies-Uniacke (35 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) was the only Roo who could hold his head high.
Jeremy Cameron - 3
Tom Hawkins - 2
Mitch Duncan - 1
Gold Coast 8.14.62 def by Collingwood 9.13.67
Gold Coast’s finals chances have just about gone after they let the win slip through their fingers against Collingwood. Nick Daicos was superb in the backline with 37 disposals at 100% efficiency while brother Josh was also good with 19 disposals, 6 marks and 3 goals. Touk Miller (31 disposals, 10 tackles, 10 clearances) and Noah Anderson (30 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were busy while Izak Rankine (18 disposals, 4 goals) was electric up forward.
Nick Daicos - 3
Noah Anderson - 1
Touk Miller - 1
Josh Daicos - 1
Richmond 20.8.128 def West Coast 13.15.93
Richmond did enough to hold off an improved Eagles outfit to move into the top 8. Daniel Rioli (28 disposals, 1 goal) and Marlion Pickett (25 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were dynamic while Liam Baker (21 disposals, 2 goals) continues his good recent form. However best on ground was arguably West Coast’s Tim Kelly who amassed 40 disposals, 9 clearances and 2 goals. Jamie Cripps was also good for the visitors with 24 disposals and 3 goals.
Tim Kelly - 3
Daniel Rioli - 2
Marlion Pickett - 1
GWS Giants 11.6.72 def Hawthorn 7.8.50
It was a wet-weather slog, but the Giants got the points over the Hawks. It might be a tricky game for votes given the conditions, but surprisingly it was the big men of the Giants that stood out. Jesse Hogan seemed to be the only player on the ground who could still mark the ball as he collected 22 disposals, 8 marks and 2 goals. Callum Brown was a late inclusion and made an impact with 4 goals from 13 disposals and 6 tackles. Tim Taranto (30 disposals, 10 tackles), Josh Kelly (30 disposals, 10 tackles) and Stephen Coniglio (31 disposals, 8 tackles) were typically busy. Tom Mitchell was best for the Hawks with 35 disposals and 7 tackles.
Jesse Hogan - 3
Callum Brown - 2
Tom Mitchell - 1
Fremantle 15.9.99 def Port Adelaide 14.7.91
Freo led by 40 points during the third quarter before switching off late and surviving a Power surge to grab the victory. James Aish (29 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals), Jordan Clark (29 disposals, 6 marks) and Andrew Brayshaw (27 disposals, 11 tackles, 1 goal) were busy, while Sean Darcy (21 disposals, 38 hitouts, 9 clearances) led the way in the ruck. However it was Rory Lobb up forward who was the difference with 5 goals, from 11 disposals, 6 marks and 13 hitouts. Ollie Wines (39 disposals) and Travis Boak (32 disposals, 1 goal) were best for the Power.
Rory Lobb - 3
James Aish - 2
Jordan Clark - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
