The first of the bye rounds saw a reduced six games on the fixture for Round 12. Despite the reduced number of games, it was a round that had a bit of everything. North Melbourne and West Coast continue to bomb, but outside of that, we had some cracking games between finals contenders. The Cats got over the Dogs in an exciting start to the round, Sydney upset the Demons, Freo knocked over the Lions, while the Pies and the Hawks fought out a wet-weather classic at the G.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 12 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 12 Overview
With some players enjoying a week off, the Brownlow leaderboard is a little out of whack for a few weeks, but it was a week where contenders Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca likely missed out on votes. Fremantle's Andrew Brayshaw is the shortener in the Brownlow betting market as he's into $9.00 and fourth favourite in the betting after the stand out performance for Round 12.
Max Gawn, Callum Mills and Touk Miller are others likely to be in the votes in Round 12 if you're looking for a little more value outside of the top contenders.
AFL Round 12 Brownlow Votes
Western Bulldogs 10.10.70 def by Geelong 12.11.83
The Cats blew a 40-point lead but did enough to hang on against the Bulldogs in a Friday night classic. Jeremy Cameron was the star with 6 goals from 18 disposals and 7 marks to carry his side home. Tom Atkins (20 disposals, 1 goal) and Rhys Stanley (16 disposals, 5 marks, 23 hitouts) were influential without padding the stats sheet, while Sam De Koning (12 disposals, 8 marks) was superb at full back on Aaron Naughton. If the Dogs had got up then Tom Liberatore would be taking the three votes for his 30 disposals and 2 goals, but he might have to be content with just two votes.
Jeremy Cameron - 3
Tom Liberatore - 2
Rhys Stanley - 0.5
Tom Atkins - 0.5
Adelaide 13.10.88 def West Coast 8.9.57
The Crows were unconvincing but got the points against an improved Eagles side. Rory Laird (33 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) was superb while Ben Keays (29 disposals) was also busy. They fed a forward line that had plenty of opportunity with Taylor Walker (22 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals), Darcy Fogarty (12 disposals, 5 marks, 3 goals) and Shane McAdam (12 disposals, 3 goals) all hitting the scoreboard. Andrew Gaff (30 disposals, 1 goal) and Luke Shuey (27 disposals, 6 tackles, 10 clearances) were best for the Eagles.
Rory Laird - 3
Taylor Walker - 2
Andrew Gaff - 1
Gold Coast 15.19.109 def North Melbourne 7.5.47
A club record 81 inside 50’s for the Suns outlined their dominance over the Roos in this one. Touk Miller was a beast with 32 disposals, 8 tackles, 13 clearances and almost 800 metres gained. Matt Rowell (25 disposals, 11 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) played his best game of the year, while Connor Budarick (25 disposals), Noah Anderson (21 disposals, 6 tackles) and Izak Rankine (16 disposals, 2 goals) were also very good. Luke Davies-Uniacke (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) was best for the Kangaroos.
Touk Miller - 3
Matt Rowell - 2
Connor Budarick - 1
Melbourne 9.7.61 def by Sydney 10.13.73
A classic at the G saw the Swans upset the Dees and throw the 2022 premiership race wide open! Callum Mills (26 disposals, 7 marks, 10 tackles, 6 clearances) was superb in the middle, while Sam Reid enjoyed being the key target up forward with 16 disposals, 5 marks, 10 tackles and 3 goals. Max Gawn tried to carry his team on his shoulders with 28 disposals, 9 marks, 30 hitouts and 3 goals and was arguably best on ground in a losing effort. Jack Viney (32 disposals) and Clayton Oliver (29 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances) were also good.
Max Gawn - 3
Callum Mills - 1.5
Sam Reid - 1.5
Hawthorn 10.6.68 def by Collingwood 10.12.72
A wet-weather Winter slog saw the Pies get a valuable win over the Hawks in dramatic fashion. Nick Daicos was sensational with 36 disposals, with good support in the middle from Patrick Lipinski (29 disposals, 1 goal) and Taylor Adams (28 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances), while Darcy Cameron continues to shine as he amassed 26 disposals, 9 marks, 19 hitouts, 6 clearances and a goal. Jai Newcombe (23 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances) enjoyed the wet conditions while Tom Mitchell (32 disposals, 7 tackles) was also good.
Nick Daicos - 3
Darcy Cameron - 1.5
Jai Newcombe - 1.5
Fremantle 15.9.99 def Brisbane 13.7.85
Fremantle have again knocked off one of the premiership contenders with a vital win over Brisbane in a finals-like game. It’s a pretty clear three votes to Andrew Brayshaw who was immense with 39 disposals, 6 tackles and 9 clearances in a brilliant effort. Caleb Serong (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and James Aish (29 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) also won plenty of ball, while Michael Frederick (18 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goals) and Bailey Banfield (12 disposals, 4 goals) hit the scoreboard. Lachie Neale (31 disposals) and Zac Bailey (22 disposals, 4 goals) were best for the Lions.
Andrew Brayshaw - 3
Caleb Serong - 1
James Aish - 1
Zac Bailey - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
