2019 Perth Cup Preview & Betting Tips

January 5th 2019, 2:33am, By: tim_tips

The Group 2 TabTouch Perth Cup rounds out the Perth Carnival at Ascot on Saturday, January 5th and we have a full field of 16 runners set to line up over the 2400m. Leading owner Bob Peters will be looking to win his eighth Perth Cup, which will make him the most successful owner in Cup history. Despite Galaxy Star being withdrawn from the race, the cerise and white still has a major grip on the race, with five runners and three of the top four in betting. Peters has had the quinella in the Perth Cup for the past three editions and will be a good chance of making it four on the trot.

The Ascot track will be a Good 4 and the rail is out 5m for today’s meeting.

2019 Perth Cup Preview & Betting Tips

RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW

Gatting

Absolutely flying this preparation. Impressive winner of the G2 Lee-Steere Stakes first up and has run 2nd to Galaxy Star on two occasions, with those runs split by a luckless 6th in the G1 Kingston Town Classic. This is a pretty tough task for him today. He’s drawn horribly in barrier 15 and carries the full 59kg, with all bar one runner carrying 6kg less than him. He’s worn the blinkers for all four starts this campaign but they come off for today’s race and the other important gear change to note is the bar plates going on his other front hoof. He’s worn bar plates on one front foot this prep but he wears them on both front feet today, which has to be a concern. Brings the best form to the race and is sure to run bravely but I can’t see him winning with those things in mind.

Star Exhibit

Hard to believe he won this race last year (technically New Years Eve, 2016). He’s been a shadow of his former self this preparation. Won’t be going close.

Action

Very heavily backed since the barrier draw after coming up with barrier 4. His last win was actually over this track and distance when he smashed his rivals in the WA Derby back in April. Looks to have been set for this race all along and with Pike on from the good draw, he’s obviously going to be hard to hold out. It’s easy to see why he’s popular but I don’t think there should be such a discrepancy in the market between him and Mississippi Delta.

Cappo D’Oro

Racing in terrific form with a win and four placings from five starts this prep. Should be rolling forward from barrier 9 and trying to pinch a break like he did two starts ago when defeating Mississippi Delta. Failed at his only attempt over this distance but that was back in April 2016 and he’s a much stronger horse now. Decent each way chance.

Dark Musket

The old boy’s best days are well behind him and he’s won just one of his 36 starts at Ascot. Pass.

Elegant Blast

Placed in six of her seven starts this preparation and comes off a solid performance behind Cappo D’Oro and Mississippi Delta. Doesn’t get in well at the weights relative to those two runners today but she does draw favourably and looks to me like she’ll see out the 2400m. Place hope.

Itsahymn

Another old boy whose best days are behind him but he was running admirably prior to his last start where he just got way out of his ground and was never sighted. Hard to see him troubling the top few in the market.

Khartoum

Definitely the intriguing runner in the race, coming over from Melbourne having won two of his past three starts over 2300m and 2500m, with a luckless 4th in the Pakenham Cup wedged between those. He’s obviously going to run the trip and he’s in career-best form so with the light weight and the good draw, he’s going to be competitive in this, because there’s plenty of deadwood making up the numbers. Looks a value chance in the race at $15.

Like A Butterfly

Ran 2nd to Action in the WA Derby back in April and her other start over the track and distance was also a 2nd placing. She will run the distance and although she’s been mixing her form a touch, she looks like she’s been set for this race all along. I would have liked to see them leave the blinkers up their sleeve until today but they put them on a few starts ago to no real effect. Drawn awkwardly but she’s a place chance at huge odds.

Mississippi Delta

Hard to believe she’s a $6 chance today given she got the better of Action last start over 2200m and only gives him a 1kg swing in the weights today. She’s won three of her six starts this preparation and eight from 14 overall. Action is possibly the superior stayer but she’s the one in form right now and I’d be surprised if she wasn’t fighting out the finish. I’d much rather be on her at the price. We’re getting a better price for her to run a place than we are for Action to win. Not sure how.

Perfect Jewel

Hasn’t quite recaptured her form from her three-year-old season which saw her win the WA Guineas and start $5 in the Kingston Town Classic, except for a terrific run in the Railway Stakes a month ago. She could very well be used as a pacemaker to ensure there’s decent speed in the race for the likes of Action, so I’d probably expect her to roll forward from barrier 11. Not a winning chance.

Prize Catch

Was only a length off Cappo D’Oro and half-a-length off Mississippi Delta two starts ago when carrying 59kg, so on that run he’s probably in this to a small degree. He’s been $23 into $16 in early betting which is notable from this stable. Drawn a little bit sticky in 10 but he could be one to throw into exotics.

Prying Tom

Has been poor in three starts back this campaign and while that’s not unusual for him this early in his prep, it would be a miraculous turnaround in form if he were to challenge here.

Queen Bey

Beat Mississippi Delta two starts ago over the 2200m but Delta gets a 3kg weight swing in her favour today. Queen Bey didn’t get the clearest passage in running last start so happy to forgive her for that and she does boast a record of three wins from five starts at Ascot, so I could entertain putting her in exotics at $67.

Royal Star

On face value she’s had a disappointing preparation but she’s not had a lot of luck in a few of her runs and they also decided to go forward with her in another, arguably as a pacemaker for Mississippi Delta. She’s drawn poorly and needs to improve but she has placed in both attempts at the track and distance and she’s in the right camp to peak for the big day.

Brother’s Keeper

Gains a run with scratchings. Won nicely two starts ago and was asked to do a bit of work last start in a small field. Looks well outclassed in this.

SELECTIONS

I can’t work out why Mississippi Delta is $6 to win and $2.25 to place. That place price is better than Action’s price to win, which I think is unders now. The Peters/Pike factor obviously plays a big part there, as does drawing barrier 4, but given Delta beat him last start and he only gets 1kg off her today, I think the difference in price is too great. They could easily run the quinella but outside of them the most interesting runner is Khartoum, the interstate raider. I’d be throwing him in everything at double figure odds. Gatting faces a tough task but is good enough to beat the majority of the field home regardless of the negatives against his name. Cappo D’Oro, Elegant Blast and Like A Butterfly all worth throwing in exotics.

1st MISSISSIPPI DELTA

2nd ACTION

3rd KHARTOUM

4th GATTING

TIPS

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