2018 AFL: Semi Final Hawthorn vs Melbourne Preview & Betting Tips

September 11th 2018, 11:34am, By: PuntingInDanger

Tough weekend in Week 1 of the AFL finals for PuntingInDanger and fans as we hit on just 1 of our 4 best bets across the qualification/elimination finals. The three first games went nothing like how we predicted them to go but now we have a little bit of a scope for how the finals are playing out we’ll look to improve as we preview both semi finals in Week 2!

The semi finals kick off on Friday night with Hawthorn hosting Melbourne at the MCG. Odds are we could see another crowd of 90,000+ in this one and we have a full preview and betting tips for the game below.

Semi Final Hawthorn vs Melbourne Betting Tips

Hawthorn will be disappointed with their performance against the Tigers last weekend. After trailing by 1 point at quarter time and just 14 point at half time, the Tigers ran rampant in the second half, piling on eight goals to four to claim an easy 31-point win. The wet weather played it’s part in the game, never allowing the Hawks medium sized skilled forwards in Luke Breust and Jack Gunston to really get into the game.

Hawthorn also played two ruckman, which I thought was a really odd choice given it was both wet and the fact that they were playing one of the smaller sides in the competition in Richmond. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not big man Jonathon Ceglar gets another game this weekend as the Hawks face the premier ruckman in the league in Max Gawn.

Melbourne were fantastic against Geelong on Friday night last week. They kicked out to a five-goal lead in the first quarter and never looked back. They should have iced the game in the first half but missed plenty of opportunities that just left the door ajar for the Cats, however, Melbourne were absolutely dominant for the majority of the night.

The run and carry and taking risks at all costs paid off for the Demons on Friday night as they sliced up Geelong through the middle of the ground at every opportunity. Max Gawn was great, giving the Demons first look with 42 hitouts as Melbourne smashed Geelong in the clearance count 37-27 and had 16 more inside 50s.

However, the telling stat for me in the Melbourne vs Geelong game was the tackles inside 50 count. Melbourne laid a massive 23 to Geelong’s 6 as their forward pressure rivalled that of Richmond’s on Thursday night. If Melbourne an bring that same intensity again it will feel like playing Richmond again for the Hawks, which won’t bode well for their possession and skill-based style.

The two sides met all the way back in Round 4 of this year and on that day, Hawthorn ran out massive 67-point winners. Interestingly, the Demons were one of the only teams to stem the influence of Tom Mitchell in 2018. In Round 4, they kept him to 24 touches and just five tackles and James Harmes will likely get the job on him again this Friday night.

Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston kicked 9 goals between them in Round 4 and they’ll hope to replicate that on Friday night in much better conditions than they faced last weekend. No chance of rain means that Hawthorn should be more competitive than they were on against the Tigers, but it’s hard to look past Melbourne after the form they showed against Geelong.  

Melbourne start as 13.5 point favourites here which is probably about right given their dominance last week. Regardless of who wins, I think it will be a fairly big margin. The Hawks like to grind out games by playing a possession style but the way that Melbourne plays doesn’t really promote close games. Not prepared to make a call on the game as I really think it could go either way but the total point line seems a little high at 165.5 none of the four games in the first week of finals reached that mark and while Melbourne have regularly scored over 100 this year, the finals intensity brought that mark down to just 75 last weekend.

 

 

TIPS

2018-19 NBA Betting Tips: Thursday 17th January

We return with our betting tips for a busy Thursday slate of NBA action. Check out all our value selections for the day right here! read more

2018-19 Big Bash League (BBL08): Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips

Round 9 of the BBL08 season gets underway this Thursday night with the Brisbane Heat taking on the Sydney Thunder! We take a look at all four games in the round and give our betting tips here read more

2019 PGA Tour: Desert Classic Preview & Betting Tips

The 2019 PGA Tour returns to the mainland this weekend after a brief stint in Hawaii and all eyes will be on the annual Desert Classic in California. See our preview and tips for the weekend's action here read more

Sandown & Warwick Farm Racing Tips, Wednesday January 16th

Midweek racing this Wednesday, January 16th 2019, comes from Sandown in Melbourne and Warwick Farm in Sydney. Here's our best bets of the day from both racing meets. read more

ARTICLES

Australian Bookmaker Tennis Retirement Rules

With the Australian tennis season in full swing, we take a look at the variety of different betting terms and conditions surrounding retirements in tennis matches at the major Australian sports betting sites. read more


Streaming Live Sports on Australian Betting Sites

Here's a run down of which Australian sports betting sites offer live streaming action of your favourite sports! read more


Best Australian Sports Betting Sites

The best Australian sports betting sites insures safe and successful online betting for punters as well as offering the best betting options in Australia. read more


How Does Spread Betting Work?

Spread betting has finally made it's way to Australia through new betting agency Pointsbet, we give you a quick guide to spread betting here. read more


BLOGS

BBL08 Team Preview: Perth Scorchers

Can the Perth Scorchers win a record 4th Big Bash League title in 2018-19? See our full team preview for the Scorchers in BBL08 here read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Adelaide Strikers

The Adelaide Strikers will be aiming for a successful title defence in BBL08. Can they complete the back to back or will Travis Head's international duty be a hinderance? read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Melbourne Renegades

Our 2018-19 Big Bash League team previews continue today as we take a look at last season's semi finalists the Melbourne Renegades. Can the Renegades make the finals for just the third time in BBL08? read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Hobart Hurricanes

The Hobart Hurricanes surprised many last season as they reached the final, and they'll be looking to go one better in BBL08. They have a dynamic squad of talented players but they'll need to keep them on the park to contend. Here's our Hurricanes team preview for BBL08. read more


Draftstars