Just the seven tips in last weekend’s AFL betting preview and four winners for another profitable week. Back to the full slate of games this weekend as Port Adelaide and Gold Coast are back in action. It’ll be the last time for a few weeks that we get the full compliment of nine games as the bye rounds kick off next weekend.
Catch PuntingInDanger’s preview for every game in Round 11 of the AFL season below!
Sydney vs Carlton (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
See our standalone preview for the Friday night clash between Sydney and Carlton here!
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
The Demons might have just jumped into premiership contention last weekend as they downed the Crows by a whipping 91 points in Alice Springs. They have now won their last five games in a row, scoring over 100 points in each contest and scoring over 140 in their last three in a row. They have kicked a ridiculous 69 goals in their last three games as a host of small and medium sized forwards have turned it on, especially Jake Melksham.
The Western Bulldogs couldn’t get the job done in their Round 10 clash against Collingwood on Friday night. They went down by 35 points as their rucking woes really showed with Brodie grundy racking up 38 hitouts and 26 touches in the win. Zaine Cordy and Aaron Naughton could miss this weekend’s clash through injury, which could really test the Bulldogs already super thin defence.
After Melbourne’s hot run of form over the past month, they start as 32.5-point favourites here. The Demons were big 57-point winners over the Dogs when they met last in Round 13 of 2017. Hard to look past their form of late. I think they cover the line but I’m more interested in the total points in perfect conditions at Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
TIP: Total points OVER 177.5 - $1.88 at CrownBet
Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide (Saturday 2.10pm AEST)
The Hawks were looking okay last weekend early in their game against the Eagles. However, they were outplayed in the second half to end up losing by 15 points. Tough to take much from that game, however, as the Eagles are currently playing on another level and to get within three goals of them could be considered a win for Hawks fans. Tom Mitchell was his dominant self in the midfield, racking up 28 touches and 10 tackles in the loss while youngster Jaeger O’Meara was also great, kicking three goals.
Port Adelaide will be coming into the game fresh after their bye week, looking to consolidate a place in the top eight with a win. They currently sit 9th on the ladder but have the same number of wins as 5th through 8th with one game in hand. They were impressive in China, winning by 40 points over the Suns and giving me some confidence that they can in fact win away from Adelaide Oval.
Hard to pick a winner here in my opinion. If it was at the MCG I’d have to side with the Hawks but it’s down in Tasmania this weekend, and Port Adelaide have the advantage of coming into this one on the back of a week off. The Power smashed the Hawks by 41 points just a few weeks after their bye last year. I like the Power to win here.
TIP: Port Adelaide to win - $1.95 at CrownBet
Gold Coast vs Geelong (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
It’s been almost impossible to get a read on the Cats so far this year. One week they come out and play like the best team in the league and the next they lose by 34 points to Essendon at the MCG. They weren’t super impressive against the Blues in Round 10 but still managed to pick up a 28 point win as Patrick Dangerfield racked up 29 disposals and kicked a goal.
The Suns will be coming into this game on the back of a bye and could be buoyed by the return of star forward Tom Lynch, who has missed the last three games with a knee injury. They were thoroughly outplayed by Port Adelaide in China and have now lost their last four games in a row. The return of Lynch will be a massive boost so to will the return to Metricon Stadium, where they have yet to play a game this season due to the Commonwealth Games earlier in the year and some scheduled home interstate games.
I can’t believe I’m about to say this, but I actually think the Suns will be super competitive this weekend. The Cats haven’t been playing a great brand lately, and their two most recent wins over Collingwood and Carlton only came at an average of 24.5 points. I think the Suns can keep this relatively close.
TIP: Geelong to win by 1-39 - $2.05 at Sportsbet
Essendon vs Richmond (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
One of the marquee games of the AFL calendar every year is always the Dreamtime game at the MCH between Essendon and Richmond. This year was looking like it was going to be a bit of a lacklustre affair as the Bombers were in terrible form, but two wins in a row over Geelong and GWS has set them back on track and should make this an interesting clash on Saturday night.
The Bombers finally got back to playing the brand of football that they had some success with last season and earlier in 2018. Fast paced and skilled ball use is the way they need to go about it and with no Joe Daniher in the team of late, the forward line looks a lot less clogged, allowing smaller key forwards in James Stewart and Shaun McKernan to have better impact on the game.
The Tigers lost a touch of their air of invinciblilty against the Saints on the weekend. It’s clear that opposing teams with a similar style to Richmond give them trouble, that is to say teams with an intense forward pressure and tackling ability. The Bombers are currently the fifth ranked tackling team in the AFL. Only one of the Bombers last four games has surpassed the 166-point mark. I think this one is going to be a bit of a slugfest, back the unders.
TIP: Total points UNDER 166.5 - $1.88 at CrownBet
West Coast vs St Kilda (Saturday 8.10pm AEST)
What a horror run its been for the Saints since their Round 1 win over Brisbane. Since then they have played six of the current top eight teams, along with GWS, Fremantle away from home and the Hawks down in Tassie. It doesn’t get any easier this weekend as they have to travel to Perth to take on the top of the ladder Eagles before taking on Sydney next weekend. To make matters worse, they’ll have to face both teams without arguably their best player, Jake Carlisle, who was suspended for two games after a striking charge.
West Coast were fantastic against the Hawks on the weekend at Etihad Stadium. Josh Kennedy booted three goals while Andrew Gaff racked up 35 touches and kicked a goal in the win. The Eagles are untouchable at the moment, and it should get better this weekend as star midfielder Luke Shuey could return from a hamstring injury.
The Saints took it right to the Tigers last weekend but still ended up losing by 28 points. The Saints will not only be without Carlisle, but they’ll also be missing Nathan Brown and Dylan Roberton, who are both injured, leaving the key defence stocks in tatters. Can’t see how they can stop the Kennedy/Darling combo here.
TIP: West Coast -53.5 - $1.92 at CrownBet
North Melbourne vs Brisbane (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
The Kangaroos continued on their winning ways on the weekend, downing the Dockers in Perth by 28 points to move to 6-4 on the season, currently sitting in 5th place. Jarrad Waite and Ben Brown continue to impress as a forward duo as they booted 5 goals between them against the Dockers while Ben Jacobs and Shaun Higgins were the catalysts in the midfield for the Roos.
As they have done so often so far this year, the Lions recorded yet another honourable loss in Round 10, going down to the Swans by 18 points at the Gabba. They now have a 1-9 record on the season so far and sit in second last place on the ladder, with only the Blues behind them. The form of Dayne Beams was a highlight on the weekend as the star midfielder racked up 38 touches and kicked a goal in the loss while Stefan Martin was dominant in the ruck once again.
The Roos start as 28.5-point favourites here, which I think is a touch high. I still don’t completely trust the Roos, and the Lions last four games have included one win and three losses at an average of just 13 points. Only two of their nine losses this season have come at a margin of over 28 points. I like them to cover here.
TIP: Brisbane +28.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Collingwood vs Fremantle (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
Collingwood earned another good win on Friday night against the Western Bulldogs to hold onto their spot in the top eight. They currently have a 6-4 record and sit eighth on the ladder. Brodie Grundy has been dominant this season and had another monster game on the weekend with 38 hitouts and 26 disposals. The Collingwood midfield has also been firing on all cylinders as Adam Treloar, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp and Scott Pendlebury all racked up over 30 touches on the weekend.
Fremantle have now lost their last two games in a row and while Nat Fyfe is in career best form, he hasn’t been getting enough help from his midfield teammates of late, as the Dockers were outplayed in the second half by the Roos in Round 10.
If form is anything to go by, Collingwood should win this one comfortably. Since their Round 2 loss to the Giants, they haven’t dropped a game to a bottom eight team and have some great wins over the likes of Adelaide and the Bulldogs. I think they win here but the line is a little to high for my liking.
TIP: Collingwood to win by 1-39 - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)
If the look that Crows coach Don Pyke gave his players at three quarter time is any indication of how fired up the Crows will be for this week’s match, you can be assured that Adelaide won’t be losing by 91 points again this weekend. They were woeful against the Demons in Round 10, and will be desperate to get back to Adelaide Oval this weekend.
After a good start to the season, the Giants have now lost their last four games in a row and the road doesn’t get much easier as they face the Crows, Tigers, Hawks, Eagles and Power all in the next seven games. Their injury list is extensive at the moment but will get Phil Davis back this weekend which will be a massive boost to the defence against the big forwards that the Crows possess.
Tough game to call here. Any other week you’d lock the Crows in for a win at Adelaide Oval, but after the performance they displayed last weekend it’s hard to bet on them to cover a 20 point line. I’m staying away from this one.
TIP: No bet
