2017 Memsie Stakes Day Preview & Betting Tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips from Caulfield on Saturday, September 2nd which features the first Group 1 of spring - the 2017 Memsie Stakes!

We've got nine races to find winners for, and the track is rated a Good 4. There is a bit of rain predicted for Saturday, but I doubt it will make too much of a difference to the track.

Check out all our best bets, best value and tips for every race on Memsie Stakes Day! We have also taken a look at Sydney, so find Randwick Racing Tips for Saturday, September 2nd here. 

Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, September 2nd 

Best Bet: Fuhryk (Race 5)
Best Value: Risque EW (Race 2)

Race 1

Tough race to start the day, though five of the nine runners come through the same race last start. That race was won by JUSTICE GLORY who was first up on that occasion and carried 59.5kg to victory. She drew barrier 11 on that day and settled three-wide in midfield with cover. She ran home strongly to get over the top in the last 50m, which indicates she will love the 1400m. Hayes has said she is going on to the longer races in the Spring, so with half-a-kilo less today and a softer draw, she is a definite winning chance once more. PROSECUTION finished 2nd that day and carries 1kg less today. She settled 2nd from barrier 4 last start so from the same barrier today we should see her prominent. MAHLANI finished 4th in the race, beaten 1.3L, which was a good effort considering she was three-wide without cover on speed the entire race. She gets in 3kg lighter here so if she can find cover from the good barrier then she has big claims. JUDY IN DIGUISE interests me. She finished 3rd in that race after leading, and previous to that, she finished well back in the field on debut behind Crown Witness. That form has obviously turned out to be very strong considering Crown Witness went on to beat Catchy. She does carrier half-a-kilo more in weight today, but the huge positive is the 3kg claiming apprentice is replaced by Blake Shinn. From the good barrier she should bounce straight to the front, and with the rail out 6m, she could be tough to run down. The query is the 1400m with her. PLAY THAT SONG is the 5th runner that ran in that race, beaten 2L on the day, but worked home strongly and was first up from a spell. Extra trip a definite plus, as is the extra fitness with that run under her belt. Very difficult to separate those five, with only 2L covering them last start. With the rail out early in the day, I'll have a very small each way play on JUDY IN DISGUISE (paying $5.50 and even money the place) and possibly save on JUSTICE GLORY. 

TIP: Judy In Disguise EW

Race 2

This is a wide open race. There's about seven winning chances that I've managed to narrow down to five. I do think the best of those is the favourite OREGON'S DAY who finds a very suitable race second up over 1400m. First up she wasn't suited over 1100m in a slowly run race, especially on wet ground. She got a long way back and was never a chance but did finish off well enough. Her second up record reads two starts for a win and a 3rd, and that 3rd placing was in Group 2 company when beaten 0.2L over this track and distance. She carried 56.6kg that day and carries 54.5kg here, so back on to firm ground, hopefully with a bit more tempo, she looks well placed in open mares grade. I really think RISQUE is very much over the odds here at $31. She was $9 out to $21 first up when she was never going to be suited over 1100m. She finished last but pulled up lame, and I think she can really bounce back here up to 1400m and on a firm track. She has three wins and two placings from six starts on good ground, has run 2nd at her only start over 1400m, and second up last prep was beaten 0.6L when running 3rd in the Group 1 Australian Guineas behind Palentino. She gets the blinkers on for the first time here, senior rider Dwayne Dunn takes over, and despite the wide barrier and 60kg, I think she's set to put in a big run here. Outside of those two, there's no knock on SWAMPLAND who has won three straight, the latest of which was a dominant win over a good horse. Can win. SCHISM should get a great run on speed and will be fitter for last start when she was first up from a let-up. Has won four from five at the distance, draws well and has an in-form apprentice on. VITAL IMPORTANCE has been going well when kept fresh and did win first up last prep over 1200m at this track. Include her at $21. TAHANEE went very well at her first run in Australia, but gets a negative jockey change here and a wide gate. PRINCESS OF QUEENS will get a good run from the gate but 1400m is her absolute maximum and she was beaten 2L by Swampland at level weights two starts ago. Taking on EVERY FAITH who is 0/3 at the distance. 

TIP: Oregon's Day / Risque EW (Best Value) 

Race 3

Even more open than the last race. RICH LUCK comes up $34 and he's won five races from seven starts so that tells you all you need to know about the depth of the race. He's definitely not without a chance. He's been entered for plenty of races since his first up win over 1200m at Geelong but has been continually scratched. He's undefeated second up and although he carries 61.5kg, with a soft run he could go close. I really don't think there should be such a discrepancy in prices between MR SNEAKY and THEANSWERMYFRIEND. Theanswermyfriend was terrific first up behind the very speedy Quilista, and the step up to 1200m will suit him better. The draw is the only thing that will get him beat here. He'll start from barrier 15 of 16 and will need a tremendous ride to win. He's easily in the top three horses in the race so he can definitely win, but $3 is the best we're getting now and that seems absolutely rock bottom in a race of this depth. Mr Sneaky actually beat him last prep, granted it was over 1400m at Flemington. From that race, Theanswermyfriend gets a 3.5kg weight swing, and obviously has the run under his belt, but Mr Sneaky does draw significantly better in barrier 4 and has finished in the top two at both starts when first up. At $7 he looks a great price. The two best chances at long odds are DUSTY JACK and HALLELUJAH BOY. Dusty Jack, from all reports, is flying, and his first up run behind Quilista and Theanswermyfriend was outstanding. He's undefeated second up and the extra 100m will suit. So, too, will the firmer track. He will start from barrier 16 which is the major negative, but if the speed's on he will be charging home at $15. Hallelujah Boy is a Japanese import that's first up in Australia for Kris Lees. He's won twice and placed twice from five runs when first up, so he goes well fresh. But he's never won under 1600m and he also draws wide. I'd recommend having something small on but he may be looking for longer. HANDSOME THIEF failed first up on the heavy ground but is much better suited here on a firm track with barrier 1. Should get a lovely run in the first half of the field, and he showed last prep that he's a sprinter to look out for. By no means ruling him out.

TIP: Mr Sneaky / Dusty Jack EW

Race 4

MERCHANT NAVY for me here. He comes into this first up from a spell after an undefeated debut campaign, with two jump-outs leading into the race. He looks set to get a great run from barrier 4, either fourth or sixth, one horse of the rail. He could be the real deal and this looks a great race for him. TREKKING comes out of a very hot form race in Sydney where he ran 3rd behind Menari and Siege Of Quebec. Menari is being touted as a Group 1 sprinter, while Siege Of Quebec was undefeated going into that race. Draws well, Williams rides, he should be very competitive. I think PLOVERSET is the value here. She beat Madeenaty on debut, then ran 3rd to Shoals, and returned with a 3rd placing first up behind Crown Witness and Catchy. That's some serious form and with an ideal barrier here she will get every chance at double figure odds. KOBAYASHI is much better suited here than what he was first up so no surprises to see him go very close. BOOKER has jumped out well and can feature. Good race.

TIP: Merchant Navy / Ploverset EW

Race 5

Very, very keen on FUHRYK here. I love this mare and she could well be a Group 1 winner this prep. She comes into this first up from a spell with a good fresh record. Last prep she was beaten 0.2L first up in Adelaide in Group 2 company, before going on to win in Group 3 company at her next start. She's won five from seven at the distance, has won her only start at the track and distance, draws beautifully in barrier 3 and Craig Williams rides. She could be even better next start but I think she's a terrific chance here and very happy with the $3 on offer. SAVANNAH AMOUR should bounce back here and looks a nice price at $8. She's a Group 2 winner and there was no way she was going to win first up on a heavy track. She needs a firm track which is exactly what she will get here, and she gets the blinkers on for the first time. Draws well and can run a big race at $8. I think the value could be LYUBA at double figure odds. This is probably her level, but she ran a great race first up and should be even better with that run under her belt. She's undefeated second up and draws barrier 1. Michael Dee is a negative jockey booking but she looks a nice price. MISS COVER GIRL is a query runner first up for the Weir stable. She's only ever missed a place once from eight starts when first up, and they usually improve a length for Weir, so she shouldn't be dismissed. Backing Fuhryk hard, saver on Savannah Amour and Lyuba.

TIP: Fuhryk (Best Bet)

Race 6

Fives chances here but really only two. SHEIDEL clearly on top for me coming into this first up with a 7L trial win under its belt. Three wins and two placings from six starts first up, five wins from seven at the distance, three wins from four starts at the track, and she's a Group 1 winner over the track and distance. She'll go straight to the front from the good draw and be enormously hard to beat. Locking in$ $2.90. No underestimating VOODOO LAD and I'll definitely be saving on him. He's never finished outside the top two from five starts when first up from a spell. First up last prep ran 2nd in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap behind Redkirk Warrior. Undefeated at the distance, two wins and a second from three starts at the track. He'll get back in the field and will be motoring home. I just think Sheidel will be more wound up for this race and she will have the benefit of leading and controlling the race. MALIBU STYLE and CRYSTAL DREAMER faced each other three times last prep. Crystal Dreamer won two and Malibu Style won the other. I think Crystal Dreamer will be the more likely to feature in the finish based on his fantastic first up record and better draw. But I think the one over the odds is LEGLESS VEUVE who won first up last prep in Group 3 company over 1200m at this track. She beat Hey Doc in that race so it wasn't a weak race. She has a great fresh record, a good record at the distance, has run 2nd at her only start at Caulfield, draws well in barrier 4 and should be up on speed. $15 is a good each way price if you're chasing value.

TIP: Sheidel / Legless Veuve EW 

Race 7 - Memsie Stakes (Group 1 - 1400m)

Cracking edition of the Memsie! I would've liked $3 but the more I look at this race the more I keep coming back to VEGA MAGIC. $2.50 is a really tough price to take in a field this good, but there's just some queries over some other horses whereas this horse is primed. Huge win first up with 60.5kg, travelling three-wide the trip, to then kick away and beat a horse that looks destined for Group 1 races this Spring. There was a gap of over 4 lengths back to the 3rd horse. He's won three from four when second up, has won his only start over 1400m, won his only start at Caulfield, draws perfectly in barrier 3 and Williams takes the ride.

There doesn't look a great amount of speed outside of CHARMED HARMONY so he should be able to sit right on the heels of him and get first run on the others. BLACK HEART BART's stats just point to him winning this. Only missed a place once from 14 starts at the distance and never missed a place at Caulfield from seven starts. Four wins from five starts at the track and distance, which includes Group 1 victories over serious horses. Has finished in the top two in six of his eight starts when second up. Draws ideally to sit midfield and has been aimed at this race all along. Slight queries for me are the fact he pulled up mildly lame last start, and whether he is truly at his brilliant best that saw him win Group 1's at the start of the year.

They say LE ROMAIN's best distance is 1400m but he's run four 2nds from four starts at the trip. He's another that should be primed for this given he's never finished outside the top two from four starts when second up. First time at the track is some query but he also draws for a nice run in midfield. HEY DOC faces his toughest task yet. He won very well first up when I was very much against him, but he did find himself in the clear best part of the track on the outside rail that day. I'm not sure barrier 1 is best for him, and he's never won from four starts at the track. Both queries for me. I thought YANKEE ROSE was horribly under the odds at $9 when they opened markets and I still wouldn't take $12. She's first up since being beaten 20L over 2500m in the Oaks 303 days ago, has had issues with her prep that have been documented, and faces a red hot field that have all targeted this race. Very happy to steer clear of her and if she wins, it will be an enormous effort. Weir thinks TOSEN STARDOM will need another run, and I'd prefer to see him over 1800m ideally. HUMIDOR needs further, I AM A STAR the blowout.

TIP: Vega Magic

Race 8

Interesting but difficult race to assess with a number of the runners being stayers that are likely in need of further, and the fit horses are in form but not the same class as those higher int he weights. Of those at the bottom of the weights, I think HELL OR HIGHWATER is the best chance. She's struck winning form and as proven last campaign, once she hits winning form she maintains it. She will jump straight to the lead from the wide gate and she gets a seriously positive jockey change with 3kg apprentice Chris Caserta replaced by Dean Yendall. Down 5kg in the weights from her last start victory, meaning she gets in 2.5kg better off than Dulverton, who she beat by a length. Without much else speed in the race, she should get her chance to win. I will be backing her but only as a saver as there's two Weir horses that I'm interested in. The first is AMELIE'S STAR. She ran in a very strong race first up behind Hartnell, and the key there is that she's never placed from four first up runs. But she has placed on all three occasions when second up. Back onto a firmer track suits, up in distance suits, barrier 3 is nice, and I think of those class horses that are in need of longer distances, she is the best chance of winning. $6.50 is a good enough price. The second I want to have something on is TIAMO GRACE at $26. She got a long way back first up, and was then held up at the top of the straight as they started to sprint. The form out of the race has stacked up (the winner went on to win again), and she should be much better off for that run given she was first up for 294 days. She won her only second up run, draws barrier 1 for a soft run, and I just think at the odds she's worth a small bet. She's a very talented mare on her day and has plenty of upside given she's had just six starts.TALLY ran very well first up but is on his way to the Caulfield Cup. Big watch on the two Team Williams horses AMRALAH and ASSIGN, and MONTOYA'S SECRET should go well.

TIP: Amelie's Star / Tiamo Grace EW

Race 9

Hard to ignore GRANDE ROSSO here and the Hayes yard hold a massive hand in the race. Grande Rosso was huge first up when running 3rd to Hey Doc, beaten 0.6L. It's only ever placed three times from seven runs when first up from a spell, while it's finished in the top two at four of its six starts when second up. So if he takes that kind of improvement out of his first up run then he will be winning this. Won five and placed three times from ten starts at the distance, won his only start at the track and distance, all he needs is a good ride from Williams from the wide gate and he'll be super hard to beat. Short enough now in the market at $2.50. SNITZSON is a horse I'm very keen to follow into the Spring. He was unsuited first up over 1200m and the stable admitted he was in need of the run. He's won his only second up start previously, has won two from four at the distance and can be competitive here with that run under his belt. CHOCOLATE HOLIC finally gets to his pet distance of 1400m where he's got four wins and two placings from six starts. But he's been dealt a terrible barrier once again so will have to have everything go right to win. But he does come out of a very strong race behind Vega Magic. If OZI CHOICE gets a run he's the value at $13, and COOL CHAP is the blowout at $31.

TIP: Grande Rosso 

---