After our AFL betting tips started strongly last week, a disappointing Sunday - including our largest play on the Eagles - faltered to end up losing a couple of units. There are only a few weeks left to score some profits, so let's start by making sure my 2017 AFL Round 19 preview and betting tips are successful!
2017 AFL Round 19 Betting Tips
Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans (Friday, July 28th at 7:50pm AEST)
It's becoming like a broken record to talk about how Sydney have turned their season around, but when you think about how they started the season, it is truly remarkable they are now 2nd favourites to win the premiership with Australian sports betting sites. The Hawks, meanwhile, may not have improved in the same dramatic fashion, but they are now outside chances to make the top eight after looking like wooden spoon contenders after the first two months of the season. This Friday night clash to kick off Round 19 shapes up as a cracking, old-fashioned rivalry game.
These two teams met in Round 10 with the Hawks managing a thrilling 6-point victory, which makes them the only team to beat the Swans in the last 11 games. Alistair Clarkson out-coached the Swans that day, getting the most out of a less-talented list - even more impressive considering the game was at the SCG. The Hawks actually have a really solid record against their rival Swans, winning five of the last eight. However, since then, I think it's clear the Swans have put their game into the next gear. They are the team to beat at the moment and I would be very surprised if the Hawks win this. Despite their recent form, the Hawks still have injury woes that will make this even tougher to win. It's the Swans defensive efforts that has been the most impressive of late, conceding just 69 points on average. But unlike many teams, that hasn't stopped them from being able to score respectably themselves which is a potent combo. The Hawks won't lay down and not fight on a Friday night at the MCG, but happy to get on the Swans to win this and continue an assault on finishing in the top four.
Tip: Swans by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.05 at CrownBet (2.5 units)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, July 29th at 1:45pm AEST)
The Demons head into Round 19 on the back of a massive win against Port last week and are now just one game out of the top four. It's a stark contrast to their opponents the Roos who are currently 17th on the ladder, tied for premiership points with the Lions.
There have been some talks in the media that the Roos have been doing some creative 'list management' to ensure they don't necessarily win too many games. The cynic would call that tanking, I tend to think it's a win-win - their key achievements this year will be getting game-time into existing youngsters and adding the best new players they can in the off-season. Whether or not the Roos camp have been listening to this criticism and if that will ignite a flame to prove them wrong remains to be seen. Regardless, it's not going to be an easy game against an in-form Demons. There are couple of aspects that will give the Roos some confidence - their tremendous record against the Demons as they have won the last 16 straight (including in Round 9 of this season) and the fact the game is being played in Hobart. Outside of that, the Demons outclass the Roos and I think will muscle their way to a relatively easy victory. The writing will be on the wall for North Melbourne's intentions if they play Majak Daw one-out in the ruck again. Would even consider the Demons over 40 points if the game was in Melbourne, but because it's in Tassie, will be taking the Demons at at the line. Think this could move a few points by the end of the week, so jump on.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (-15.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
GWS Giants vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, July 29th at 2:10pm AEST)
Despite sitting 14th on the ladder, the Dockers are only two games out of the top eight - which is actually flattering for a team who has played some truly horrible football this season. They face the tough task of taking on the Giants at Spotless on Saturday afternoon who will be looking for a bit of a confidence boost after facing their own form-woes.
The Giants have started as almost 40-point favourites for this one. They haven't been the potent scorers they were at the start of the season, but they still average 96 points per game compared to the Dockers averaging just 73 - and that number falls to 62 in losing games. It's recent form that is the most damning with the Dockers being decimated by the Hawks and Eagles and scoring just 48 and 44 points respectively. The Giants have won 10 of their last 15 games at Spotless Stadium and should easily add to their win column this week. However, with injury woes still mounting and Toby Greene out on suspension, I'm not confident with the big line. Stephen Coniglio coming back in is a big positive (along with Jeremey Cameron), while Brett Deledio looks to be close, but probably will not play this week. Regardless, I'm sitting this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, July 29th at 4:05pm ACST)
The Saints have slipped to 11th on the ladder after their second loss in a row last week and it's looking like it might be three in a row as they travel to Adelaide Oval to take on the Power in a Saturday twilight encounter.
Port Adelaide faltered in their 23-point loss to the Demons last week, but are still poised for September. They sit in 5th place and have a relatively easy run home. The most impressive part of Port Adelaide's game is their defensive efforts which sees them concede a top-ranked 77 points per game. That's going to trouble the Saints who have lacked scoring prowess of late, kicking just 16 goals combined over the last fortnight. During that time the Saints also conceded 31 goals which is damning when they are set to take on the AFL's 2nd highest scoring team this week. The Saints also have a horrible record at Adelaide Oval where they have lost their last seven including five by more than 50 points. No excuses for Port Adelaide with this one and no reason to think they can't cover a five goal line. (Note: Tip was posted before weather news. Very speculative bet with weather now so poor. )
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-29.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, July 29th at 7:25pm AEST)
The Tigers are now a game clear in the top four after their huge win over the Giants last week and should stay a game clear with a likely win over the Suns on Saturday night.
The Suns have played solid football at times this season, but over the last few weeks they have simply looked like a team who has given up. They played woeful footy in the second half against the Dogs and clearly are a far worse team without Gary Ablett and Steven May in the side. Ablett and May will likely be back this week, but Jarryd Lyons, Rory Thompson and maybe even Brandon Matera. Of those players, I think May is the most important as without him they even made the lacklustre Bulldog attack look potent The Suns are certainly a better side on their home turf, but Richmond are full of confidence and it would be very disappointing if they lost this one. Think they should win and should cover the line.
Tip: Richmond at the line (-13.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Note: Gold Coast backed in after team announcements (Jack Riewoldt and Dion Prestia out) which i'm okay with. Jack had little impact last week, Bachar Houli is a big in and I think Anthony Miles should relish another opportunity and cover for Prestia. If Tigers are the team we think they are at the moment, they need to be able to show it in weeks like this.
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, July 29th at 7:25pm AEST)
All the talk of Carlton's potential probably didn't make their supporters feel any better when they lost to the dismal Lions last week. That may have been their last chance to notch up another win for the 2017 AFL season, lest they manage a miracle in games like this one against the Cats on Saturday night.
Interestingly, the Blues won the last time these two teams met in Round 10 last year, but that's the only victory over Geelong since 2010. Overall, the Cats have won 14 of the last 15 against the Blues at Etihad and this should be their 16th win. The Cats didn't play their best football last Friday night, but we know what they are capable of when they get going. Mark Blicavs will be missed for the Cats, but clearly the Blues have been struggling without Patrick Cripps and Ed Curnow in the side. The Blues let the Lions run rampant and conceded a big score last week in Brisbane, but I still think the Blues defensive efforts this season speak for themselves - they have conceded on average only a couple of points more than the far better overall Geelong. It should be back to basics this week and while I can't see the Blues winnings, I can see them keeping this within six goals.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday, July 30th at 1:10pm AEST)
There is no doubt one of the best games of Round 19 is when the Bulldogs and Bombers clash at Etihad stadium on Sunday in a game that will certainly have finals implications.
The Bulldogs played their best footy in several weeks against the Suns, but they were also facing a team without some of their best players. This is going to be a much tougher ask - especially with the Dogs set to face the potent Joe Daniher led forward line without their best defender and workhorse Dale Morris. The Bombers are one of the highest scoring teams in the comp, having hit more than 100 points ten times compared to the Bulldogs who have managed that just five times. The Dogs can't rely on someone like Liam Picken kicking six goals like he did last week, so will need to find a more balanced forward line if they are going to defeat the Bombers. At their best, the Dogs can win this, but on current form you have to give the edge to Essendon in what should be a competitive game.
Tip: Essendon by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.40 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows (Sunday, July 30th at 3:20pm AEST)
Collingwood supporters have been treated to some rare praise from footy media this week, but it will likely be back to the usual criticism after a tough game against the Crows this Sunday.
Any doubts about Adelaide's premiership credentials were quashed when they scored a great victory against the Cats last Friday night and now they simply need to keep the momentum up and win the 'easy' games like this one. They will be without Eddie Betts, but they have plenty of coverage in a forward line that the Pies will find it tough to contain. Collingwood, meanwhile, face their own forward line struggles with Darcy Moore likely to miss after having to be taken to the hospital during last week's game. No doubt Collingwood's confidence will be at a season-high and they will be happy to play this one at the MCG, but this will simply be too tough.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-18.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, July 30th at 2:40pm AWST)
The Eagles have been quite a disappointment so far this year, but are a good chance to limp into the finals simply because of their ability to win at Domain Stadium. Games like this at home against Brisbane on Sunday afternoon simply mask the fact the Eagles are struggling.
The Lions actually come into this one brimming with confidence after a great victory against the Blues last week. However, they will be without arguably their best player in Dayne Zorko after he was suspended. Even with Zorko playing you wouldn't give them much chance to defeat the Eagles at Domain, but I'm not touching this game. The bookies have the line set at 45 points and I just can't trust the Eagles at the moment. Skipping the last game of Round 19.
Tip: No Bet.
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