After managing 5/6 profitable rounds for my AFL betting tips, it was a different story for my AFL picks last week. It wasn't a complete disaster with some solid wins, but ultimately I was down around 2 units. Hopefully I can manage another winning week with my 2016 AFL Round 8 betting tips!
Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats (Friday, May 13 at 7:20pm AEST)
Dangerfield. That's the word you will hear hundreds of times in the lead up to this Friday night clash between the Crows and Cats on Friday night. They say no one player is bigger than the game, but there might be an exception when it comes to Adelaide's long lost hero moving to Geelong. Danger will no doubt be desperate to get a win on his first trip back to Adelaide, while the Crows will want to make him wish he never left.
While the Dangerfield storyline is interesting, this would have been one of the best games of Round 8 regardless. The Crows are currently 8th on the ladder after losing to the Dogs last week, while Geelong are crushing in 2nd place with only the one loss this season. To my detriment, I picked the Crows last week and while Adelaide fans were disappointed with the umpires and the free kick discrepancy, the Bulldogs did run over them for much of the game, almost doubling their inside 50 and clearances count, along with winning all the key stats. They will need to do better to stand a chance on Friday night.
Interestingly, the Cats have won 3 of the last five games (all at Simonds), while the two they lost were at Adelaide Oval. The Crows have actually won eight on the trot at Adelaide Oval, so they will like their chances here. However, the Cats are actually somewhat of a similar team to the Bulldogs and that will worry the Crows. Adelaide are the highest-scoring side in the comp, but in defence they are ranked 10th. The Cats, meanwhile, are 2nd in both departments. The Cats are also ranked 2nd for centre clearances this season, while the Crows are 10th in that stat too. With first use of the ball and plenty of confidence, I think the Cats will win this game in a very competitive game.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.60 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne (Saturday, May 14 at 1:45pm AEST)
Sometimes I just dread looking at Essendon games each week. After starting the season with a glimmer of hope, they are starting to show us exactly what we expected would happen in the 2016 AFL season. They are getting smashed. Thoroughly. Will that happen again this Saturday against North Melbourne?
This is actually a rare time where I like Essendon to cover the line. I can't see North Melbourne putting this one away by more than ten goals. They are undefeated after all, and can win this game without the risk of injury and extreme fatigue. They are also coming off the back of a couple of really tough games in a row. They also already have quite a few injuries, including news this week that Shaun Higgins could be out for 12 weeks or more. I will be having a small play on Essendon to cover the line, but also watch for any movement as you might score a couple of extra points if money comes for the Roos.
Tip: Essendon at the line (+54.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, May 14 at 2:10pm AEST)
It is mind boggling that last year's minor premiers haven’t had a win this season, while the Bombers have. And there is no chance the Dockers will join Essendon with one victory this week as they take on the Hawks at Aurora on Saturday afternoon.
This is actually a tough game to handicap. The Dockers can't find a win, but they haven't lost by huge margins this season. I am very confident the Hawks win here, but by what margin? The fact this game is at Aurora makes me think they could blow this game out. It is certainly going to be a tough road trip for the Dockers. The last time they played the Hawks in Tassie they were thumped by more than 70 points. However, there are reports of rain in Launceston on Saturday which changes things. It actually makes me lean towards the Dockers to cover, but I'm going to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, May 14 at 4:35pm AEST)
The two expansion clubs meet at Spotless on Saturday afternoon and you have to say that these clubs are in opposite positions everyone thought a couple of years ago. The Giants are simply becoming one of the best teams in the comp, while the Suns disappoint almost every week.
I have to put my hand up here and say I have been overrating the Suns this season. I have lost more AFL betting tips in Suns' games this year than any other club. This one will come down to the scoring power of the Giants. They have scored an average of 132 points over the last four games, while the Suns have struggled with conceding big scores. Even Melbourne kicked 24 goals against this mob last week. But am I happy to bet on the Giants to cover a 10-goal line? I am, but I'm also worried I'm now reacting too strongly in the other direction to my Gold Coast biased. That's why I'm going to fade this game and re-evaluate the Suns again next week.
Tip: No Bet
Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, May 14 at 7:25pm AEST)
If Collingwood's season wasn't already an absolute disaster, it's about to become one if they lose to Brisbane this Saturday night.
Despite winning just one game so far this season, the Lions have played some okay football at times - especially at their home ground. It was just a fortnight ago that the Lions almost defeated the Swans at the Gabba and so they will probably go into this game thinking they are every chance of beating the Magpies. This is actually a really tough game. There is a part of me that thinks Buckley will inspire his team to put in a much stronger effort this weekend. But there isn't really any concrete evidence to think that could be the case. The problem with Collingwood is that outside Pendles, Treloar and Sidebottom, they have a very poor list. Guys like Taylor Adams and Travis Varcoe can be very good at times, but even they are in doubt for this game. Unfortuantely for the Lions they will miss Tom Rockliff this week, but they have played without the injury-riddled gun many times in the past. At the Gabba you just have to give the edge to the Lions. I'll be taking them in a close one.
Tip: Brisbane by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.50 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, May 14 at 7:25pm AEST)
Is Richmond the most disappointing team of 2016? That title probably goes to Fremantle, but the Tigers are certainly a close second. Things won't change this Saturday night either as they take on the Swans at the MCG.
Richmond actually have a very solid record against the Swans, winning the last two meetings as underdogs. The Tigers will be happy that this is the first time these two teams meet at the MCG since 2013. But that's where the positives for Richmond stop. They simply can't put together a good performance this season. They average just 81 points per game and aren’t showing any signs of improving that number. The Swans, meanwhile, have been potent up forward and much of that is on the back of Lance Franklin. They are averaging 111 points per game and with pretty much a full strength side I can't see them losing. Richmond do, however, get Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance back this week and with this game at the MCG and their record against the Swans, I am thinking they can keep this game within 6 goals.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Carlton Blues vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, May 15 at 1:10pm AEST)
Just around a month ago I had ridden the Blues off. It looked like it was the same old Carlton we have seen the last two years. But it looks like Brendan Bolton has finally turned them around. Yes, they haven’t beaten any real threatening competitors, but this is about effort and intent. This is a different Blues side and I don't think Port Adelaide will consider this game on Sunday a lock.
I don't want to make the mistake of getting too excited about Carlton's prospects. Port Adelaide are still a far better side and if Robbie Gray is back, they are going to be very tough to beat. Carlton have been a much better defensive unit this year, which Port Adelaide will have to navigate, but I do think they have enough run to do just that. The Power are also a great pressure team, laying more tackles than any other team so far this season. The Blues haven't had to deal with that during their last three wins and I think it will take its toll. Port Adelaide have been solid the last fortnight and should get a third in a row.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-15.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, May 15 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Bulldogs leave the comfort of Etihad for the first time this year to take on the Demons at the MCG on Sunday. The Bulldogs haven’t played much football at the 'G, so they will no doubt be keen to get some experience on the the ground where the Grand Final is played. If they want the victory, however, they will have to take on a Demons' outfit who's confidence is at an all-time high after smashing the Suns last week.
The Bulldogs defeated the Demons by 98 points the last time these two teams met, but that was a completely different Melbourne. The Demons are probably the most improved club in the comp, which was highlighted last week when they kicked 24 goals. Melbourne are a damaging side with Jesse Hogan down forward and Max Gawn tapping it to Jack Viney in the middle. Are they good enough to win this week though? The Bulldogs were very good against the Crows last week, playing the fast-paced pressure-based brand of football everyone loves. They did lose another defender during the week, however, as Marcus Adams will sit this one out. He probably would have played on Jesse Hogan, so that's a big out. I'm not confident the Dogs will cover the line, but I do think there is value on them to win by under 39 points. They should be a just a little too classy for the Demons.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
West Coast Eagles vs St Kilda Saints (Sunday, May 15 at 2:40pm AWST)
The Eagles have been one of the hardest teams to bet on during the 2016 AFL season. They are quite inconsistent and haven't been living up to expectations. Much has been said about their troubles in winning on the road, so they will be happy to take on the Saints at Domain this Sunday.
Despite winning just two games, the Saints have been solid this year. They were very close to getting a win against the undefeated Kangaroos last week and it won't be long before they do manage a big upset. Will that upset come this week? I don't think so. It's a broken record at this point, but the Eagles have a fantastic record at home. They also have a great record against the Saints, winning the last six in a row. I'm not sure the Saints deserve to be 40-point underdogs, but it's a tough road trip out west, so i don't expect them to win. I'm not confident betting this game, so will sit it out.
Tip: No Bet.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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