It wasn't a massive profit, but my AFL tips for Round 10 ended up in the positive and that made it the eighth time this season I've managed a winning weekend. There are some tough games coming up, but I'm ready to offer my 2016 AFL Round 11 betting tips.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers (Friday, June 3 at 7:50pm AEST)
It's not often Friday night footy is held outside of Melbourne let alone down in Tasmania, but that's what Round 11 has in store as the Roos take on the Tigers in Hobart.
Before last week, the Roos were the darling of the competition. They had won nine in a row and never looked like slowing down. Then they met the Swans in Sydney and you could argue the bubble was burst. That might be a bit tough on the Roos, however, as the Swans are in my opinion the benchmark team this season. The Roos do need to be careful though as they have a very tough few weeks coming up. If they lose this one on Friday night, they could legitimately end up going into their bye round on the back of five straight losses and then make it six straight when they head to West Coast immediately after the bye.
The Tigers have finally gained a bit of their dignity back with three straight wins to make it a total of four this season. Two of those weren't overly impressive (dismal Bombers and Dockers), but they did take care of the Swans by a point in Round 8.
North Melbourne have a solid record against the Tigers. They have won the last seven of nine, including four of the last five. That's not to mention how much the Roos love playing in Tassie. If this was in Melbourne I would give the Tigers more of a chance, but ultimately they need too much to go right. The Roos should get the job done here in a competitive game, but just watch for news on Todd Goldstein as the Roos really aren't deep in ruck stocks and he is such an important part of their setup.
Tip: North Melbourne by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, June 4 at 1:45pm AEST)
The Demons were very disappointing last week in their loss to Port Adelaide and to add salt to their wound, they also lost their best player Jack Viney. Hopes aren’t high for Melbourne this week against the Hawks.
I'm actually surprised the line isn't a little bigger for this game. The Hawks have certainly haven’t been at their best, but don't underestimate Viney not playing. Hawthorn defeated the Demons by 105 points the last time these two teams met, but notably it was Jarryd Roughead who was best on ground. The margin won't be anywhere near that triple-figure mark this time, but I do think the Hawks can cover a five-goal line. Rioli, Gunston and Breust looked very dangerous last week and the Lions actually didn't play too bad on their home turf considering the margin. Not a huge play, but happy to get on the Hawks here.
Tip: Hawthorn at the line (-29.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday, June 4 at 2:10pm AEST)
When Carlton were smashed by North Melbourne a fortnight ago it was easy to think the three wins before that were just an anomaly. But then Carlton got the win against premiership favourites Geelong last week and it seems like the sky is the limit. Could Carlton be this year's Western Bulldogs? There are a lot of similarities. It's easy to forget the Bulldogs were one of the favourites for the wooden spoon before last season began. Things change quickly and Carlton are proving that may just be the case for them. I'm expecting them to go 6-5 after this week's battle with Brisbane.
Brisbane actually has a great record against the Blues, winning the last three, including one at Etihad. This is a different Carlton though. Their defensive pressure has been solid, while ball use around the ground (led by Bryce Gibbs in career best form) has been dangerous. Last week's win against Geelong did, however, come with it's casualties with Captain Marc Murphy likely to miss at least Round 11. Carlton did already show us they can cover his loss as he sat much of their victory against Geelong on the sidelines. It would be too easy to get excited about Carlton and bet on them to cover the line. Brisbane played some okay footy against the Hawks and will be happy to get Tom Rockliff back this week. So with that in mind and with murphy not playing, and a few other niggles after a tough victory, I will be backing Carlton in a relatively competitive game.
Tip: Carlton by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants (Saturday, June 4 at 4:35pm AEST)
Despite losing the last two games in a row (against middle of the road Pies and Blues), the Cats go into this game against the Giants as favourites. Much of that can probably be credited to the fact this game is at Simonds Stadium. Do the Cats deserve to be favourites? I'm not so sure. This is going to be a tough test regardless of where the game is played.
The biggest concern for the Cats at the moment is their defensive efforts. They conceded more than 100 points against both the Pies and Blues. They weren't too bad going inside 50, however, as they had one more scoring shot than Carlton last week. It's tough to know if they can turn it around, but ultimately I think there is too much value with the Giants here. Phil Davis coming back into the side will be huge for the Giants as he will go straight to Tom Hawkins. I don't underestimate the Cats and won't be surprised to see them bounce back, but I will be getting on the Giants at this price.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $3.15 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, June 4 at 7:25pm AEST)
The Suns will not be looking forward to this one. They have lost seven in a row and meet a confident Swans on the back of big wins over the Hawks and Roos. I've already said it once in my AFL Round 11 betting tips article - the Swans are the benchmark team of 2016.
Rodney Eade suggested they could get nine of their best 22 back this week, including Trent McKenzie, Touk Miller, Rory Thompson and Sam Day. They aren't a-listers by any stretch of the imagination, but they are part of Gold Coast's makeup and that is no doubt important. But that doesn't mean they are any chance against the Swans on Saturday night - even if this game is at Metricon. I am not overly keen on the line, however. It's just a little bit too high for my liking. In saying that, I couldn't be confident betting on the Suns to cover. Danger game, staying away.
Tip: No Bet.
Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers (Saturday, June 4 at 5:40pm AWST)
The 'battle for the top draft pick' rounds out a pretty average two games of Saturday night footy. I say that with my tongue firmly in cheek (not the average game part). I don't think either of these teams will tank this game, but it actually might play a role in who finishes on the bottom of the ladder. Surely last year's minor premier has enough hunger to win against the dismal Bombers? It will certainly be embarrassing if they can't get the job done at Domain Stadium.
There isn't too much to say about this game. It's the two worst sides in almost every key stat area. Ultimately, I lean heavily towards the Dockers winning easily at home. But I’m not game to put my money where my mouth is.
Tip: No Bet
Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power (Sunday, June 5 at 1:10pm AEST)
One of the most interesting games of the round is when Port Adelaide head to the MCG to take on the Magpies on Sunday.
The Magpies have been playing very strong football, but they were hit hard with injuries against the Bulldogs last week. Gun midfielder Taylor Adams will miss this one, while Darcy Moore and Alex Fasolo will leave a hole in Collingwood's forward half. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, get Matthew Broadbent back in and will be confident after their strong win against Melbourne in the Northern Territory. I think the Power can win this game. They are the top-ranked tackling side in the comp, are ranked fifth in clearances (compared to Collingwood at 16th) and will (luckily) face a battered Magpies.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.35 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles (Sunday, June 5 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Bulldogs and Eagles have won two games each over the last four meetings - two at Etihad for the Dogs and two at Domain for the Eagles. Their Round 11 encounter is at Etihad and I'm thinking this trend will continue.
I think one of the key factors when considering teams that are truly improving is if they can win when they play poorly. The Roos have got a few wins this year when they played poorly and the Dogs managed a win against the Pies last week despite using the ball terribly. I do think, however, they will need to play better to beat the Eagles this week. The Eagles can really punish opponents on the scoreboard and JJ Kennedy has dominated the Dogs in the past, kicking 42 goals against the red, white and blue. The Bulldogs defence is stronger than in the past, however, so the Eagles will have a task on their hands to win on the road. If the Dogs can stifle Kennedy's influence, they should manage the victory.
Tip: Western Bulldogs to win - $1.84 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints (Sunday, June 5 at 4:10pm ACST)
The Saints have regained some confidence with a couple of wins in a row, but we can't get carried away considering they only defeated the 17th and 18th ranked Bombers and Dockers. The Crows, meanwhile, have put together a couple of weeks of really solid football, including a rousing victory against the Giants in Round 10.
While St Kilda haven't had a disastrous season so far, they haven't defeated a top 8 side yet and it's going to be a very tough ask to defeat the Crows at Adelaide Oval. The Saints just don't score enough to win games like this. Where the Crows average 112 points per game (the most potent attack in the comp), the Saints only manage 86 points per game. Yes the Saints scored over 100 the last two weeks, but the Crows are in a different league to the Dockers and Bombers. The 35-point line looks just about right here. Don't mind the Crows to cover at home.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-35.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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