Just like that and we are into the double-figure rounds as a massive 2016 AFL season continues! In Round 9 I managed a handy +3.21 units of profit which made it my seventh week in profit overall! Hopefully the streak continues with my 2016 AFL Round 10 betting tips!
Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne (Friday, May 27 at 7:50pm AEST)
Not even the most optimistic North Melbourne fan would have thought they would be travelling to Sydney in Round 10 on the back of an undefeated season. They really couldn't be going into this game with any more confidence, but this is certainly going to be their toughest test yet and once which I think will prove too tough.
The last time these two teams met was in the semi-final of last year at ANZ Stadium. The Roos got the unexpected win, but the Swans were without Buddy, Kieran Jack, Luke Parker and Sam Reid. This time they come in at full strength and the game is at their favoured SCG. Two weeks ago the Swans lost to the Tigers (one of their "bogey" teams) and then bounced back with a very strong win against the Hawks last week. The Swans are the number one contested possession side in the competition and that showed in their win over the Hawks last week. With the Roos having some injury troubles (including Daniel Wells who is still in doubt) and this game at the SCG, I think the Swans will get the win. The Roos should be somewhat competitive with their big forward line, however, so liking the look of the under 39.5.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, May 28 at 1:45pm AEST)
All the chatter during the week has been around Hawthorn being over the hill. It's all doom and gloom when it comes to the brown and gold apparently. Is it really that bad down in Hawks land? On paper, the answer is a resounding yes, but this is a champion side and I’m not sure it's fair to ride them off completely on the back of losing to the very talented Sydney after a week where one of their most loved players had so many off-field health woes. Regardless, it looks like they will regain some confidence this Saturday against the Lions.
This is one of those simple games where it's a very lopsided affair. The Lions have just been so poor this season and without Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff in the side, it's getting even harder. Rocky might be back this week, but even if he is, the Lions still don't have a chance. The Lions are ranked 15th in scoring and last in many key stats. There are real problems up at Brisbane. I can see the Hawks coming out and trying to make a statement. I'm not overly confident on the big line, but happy with a small play.
Tip: Hawthorn at the line (-50.5) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes (0.5 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, May 28 at 1:40pm AEST)
One of the more interesting games during Round 10 is when the Power and Demons travel to Alice Springs on Saturday afternoon. This is the third game between these two sides at TIO Traeger Park with the Power winning the last two, including last year's game by 61 points. Despite this, the Demons go into this game as slight favourites.
I'm trying to work out if the Demons deserve to be favourites, or if it's an overreaction to a dominating win against a poor side last week. The Demons were certainly impressive and looked slick in kicking 19 goals, but the Lions are playing horrible football. Don't get me wrong, the Power haven't been overly impressive, but I think this one is more like a coinflip. Robbie Gray is starting to play better football after a patchy start and missing a few games and if Travis Boak and the like can start to stand up I do think the Power can trouble a lot of the better teams. With some extra value in the betting, i'll be taking the Power here - though watch to see if Hamish Hartlett is playing as it is quite a big out in what should be a close game.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.80 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
St Kilda Saints vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, May 28 at 4:35pm AEST)
Fremantle games have been danger betting games for me this season. It's a bit of a leak that I'm going to try and plug. I overestimated their will to win last week at home against Richmond. It really does seem like they have written this season off and Ross Lyon's coaching certainly seems to back that up. They are 0-9 and looking like they will be 0-10 after this Saturday's game against St. Kilda.
Fremantle go into this game without defenders Michael Johnson, Alex Pearce and Alex Silvagni. They are also, of course, still without Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands. They clearly aren’t going to rush any of these players back either. I dread even thinking the word 'tanking' but we have to be realistic here. It's really not in Fremantle's best interest to risk their star players or rush anyone back if they can get some match time into their second tier and younger players. Apart from a big misstep a couple of weeks ago in West Coast, the Saints have been solid. With Fremantle's form, this game being in Melbourne and no real signs of showing a will to win, I can see the Saints winning this by 5-6 goals.
Tip: St Kilda at the line (-21.5) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes ( 1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, May 28 at 7:25pm AEST)
Just three weeks ago and the Tigers were almost as disappointing as the Dockers. Since then they have won two games in a row, including that rousing win against the Swans a fortnight ago. And now it's very likely the Tigers will win their third game on the trot as they take on the Bombers at the MCG on Saturday night.
Most Essendon games will always come down to their inability to score. They average 60 points per game this season and that's not enough to win games. Their defensive efforts are commendable considering their circumstances, but somewhat pointless if they can't put their own points on the board. The Bombers may stand up in front of a big 'Dreamtime at the G' game, but ultimately Richmond's confidence is at a season high and they should win this easily.
Tip: Richmond at the line (-44.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants (Saturday, May 28 at 7:10pm AEST)
No doubt the most exciting game of Round 10 will be when the Giants head to Adelaide Oval to take on the Crows on Saturday night. The Giants don't look like they will be losing anytime soon, so the Adelaide crowd might have to get ready for some dissapointment.
One factor that the Crows will be happy with is that the Giants have some key outs in the defensive half. I think the only way the Crows can win is if they capitalise on this with their potent forward line. The problem is the Giants midfield just bats too deep for the Crows. Where the Crows have only 1-2 elite players who can change a game, the Giants conservatively have 3-4. If Dylan Shiel and Callan Ward arent at their best, Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly pick up the slack. That's not to mention impressive new youngster Jacob Hopper and guys like Toby Greene who can cause damage in the midfield too. Throw in a player like Heath Shaw quarterbacking from defence and I can see the Giants doing to the Crows what they did to the Bulldogs last week. I think a lot would have to go right for the Crows to win this. They have only won 2 of the last 5 games and with GWS's confidence high I don't think travelling will worry them. I'm not writing them off completely, but I really like the Giants at the price that is being offered. Safest bet may be the Giants head-to-head at $2, but surely the Crows won't lose by more than a few goals at home.
Tip: Giants by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.65 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats (Sunday, May 29 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Blues and Cats both won four games in a row before being sent straight back to earth with disappointing performances last week. You can probably forgive Carlton for their loss against the top of the ladder Roos, especially with Levi Casboult and Matthew Kreuzer both on the sidelines. Geelong, however, were very flat in their loss to the Pies. They are a much better side than they showed and I'm expecting them to bounce back strongly.
What became clear during Geelong's game last week is that they rely too much on Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield playing well. The Pies midfield got on top of the Cats and that was the difference in the end. The Blues will try to do the same here, but ultimately it doesn't look like the Blues will be able to score enough with Casboult and Kreuzer out. They kicked just six goals last week and never looked dangerous taking the ball forward. The Blues have shown us they are a strong defensive unit, however, so i'm not overly excited with the 40-point line. Think this is a game to fade.
Tip: No Bet
Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, May 29 at 3:20pm AEST)
After starting the season 1-3, it was doomsday down at Collingwood as the media and everyone with an opinion rode them off. The last two weeks, however, have been impressive - especially their victory over the Cats. It's time to find out if that win was a fluke as they take on the Bulldogs this Sunday afternoon.
Despite losing to the Giants last week, the Dogs were pretty solid without Matthew Boyd and Jack Redpath in their side on top of the injuries they had already been dealing with this season. Redpath and Boyd will both be back in this week, along with Matt Suckling and Marcus Adams. These ins should steady the Bulldogs, who despite having so many outs in the backline, continue to concede the least points in the comp at 70 per game. The Magpies, meanwhile, concede 97 per game. The Pies will have to re-create their Geelong performance if they are any chance to get a win here. Not taking anything away from the Pies, but the Cats really didn't play well and ultimately made it easy for Collingwood. With some strong ins, the Dogs should secure a win here.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (-13.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns (Sunday, May 29 at 2:40pm AWST)
The Suns are paying $17 to win this game against the Eagles at Domain on Sunday. That's just about as big an underdog you can get in the AFL and unfortunately for Gold Coast supporters it's well deserved. The Suns are struggling and the struggles will continue in Round 10.
The Suns were smashed by the Crows last week, but they can be slightly excused for a portion of that margin considering they had Aaron Hall and Gary Ablett added to their already large injury list. Hall and Ablett should both be back this week, but that won't be enough to get a win in the West. The Eeagles simply love their home ground, kicking 20 goals and smashing the Saints at Domain a fortnight ago. Their confidence is also at a season high after getting a rare on-the-road victory against Port Adelaide last week. This one is simple, but with a ridiculous 80-point line it is very hard to bet on. I would actually lean towards the Suns to cover such a gigantic line, but I’m not confident enough to pull the trigger.
Tip: No Bet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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