The 2015 footy season has arrived at the final week and it’s shaping up to be… Well, not all that interesting. Lots of heavy favourites, teams resting all their guns for the finals and not much to play for. Bring on the finals! But until then, we have our AFL Round 23 betting tips & preview.
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Richmond Tigers Vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos (Friday, September 4 at 7:50pm AEST)
On Monday you would have thought North Melbourne were a solid chance against the Tigers in the final round. It’s not often the Roos get to play on a Friday night and they should be relishing in that. However, footy is all about September and so the Roos have decided to rest most of their best players to get ready for the finals. Not only will they be fresh next week, it also means the Roos won’t have to travel to Adelaide in the first week of the finals.
That means this game is all but a closed book.
The question with betting on this game now becomes a question about how we think the Tigers will play. There is no reason for them to go flat chat for four quarters in desperation. There will definitely be some in-game management of their stars. They have to play finals next week too. I actually lean towards the Roos plus the eight goals for that reason. The young Roos who have come into the side will still have plenty to prove. Some of them might even think if they impress enough they can get a run in September. The Tigers will almost certainly win and we will be taking advantage of the Ladbrokes special - but consider the Roos to cover the line.
Tip: Tigers by more than 15.5 points - $2 using Ladbrokes ‘Favourites’ special
Geelong Cats Vs. Adelaide Crows (Saturday, September 5 at 1:05pm AEST)
The first Saturday game for AFL Round 23 is probably the most interesting matchup of the weekend with the fired up Crows heading to Geelong to take on the Cats.
There has been a lot of chatter around this game. Firstly there is the Patrick Dangerfield storyline. Then there is the Cats not playing finals for the first time a millions years. And of course there is also the fact multiple Geelong premiership veterans are likely playing their last game. All of these will play a role in this game, it just remains to be seen how much of a role.
Earlier in the week the Crows were paying $1.50 for this game, but you can now get $1.70. I think this is closer to the mark and is making the Crows look like a more attractive prospect. There is no doubt the Cats will come out firing to farewell some of their legends in front of a home crowd, but the Crows are simply in redhot form. I have some question marks around whether or not the Cats can put up a big enough score to beat the Crows. It’s going to be a cracker of a game.
Tip: Adelaide by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet
Brisbane Lions Vs. Western Bulldogs (Saturday, September 5 at 1:45pm AEST)
There has been plenty of news coming out of Brisbane this week and it hasn’t all been pretty with talks that some of their best young players will be out the door. It’s the opposite story at the Bulldogs where their young players are fired up for their first shot at finals glory.
This is another one of the games in Round 23 that looks pretty one sided. If this game was at Etihad the Dogs would be paying $1.05, but alas, it’s at the Gabba and they are paying $1.20. There isn’t too much value in those odds head-to-head, but we actually don’t mind the look of the 26 point line. The Lions don’t have much to play for and some of their players have one foot out the door. The Bulldogs also got back to their best last week and I think their fast running, goal kicking style will prove too much for the Lions. The Dogs are resting a few of their older players, but ultimately I think their younger players will be super keen to prove they deserve a spot in the finals roster.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (-26.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide Power Vs. Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, September 5 at 3:20pm AEST)
The top of the ladder Dockers are paying $8 to beat the ninth-ranked Power. If Round 23 wasn’t already a bit silly, well, now you know what we are dealing with. In true Ross Lyon style he is taking the Fremantle seconds team to Adelaide. Word on the grape vine is that a couple of the halftime Auskick kids might get a run on the Dockers side.
The Power must be licking their lips at the prospect of finishing the season on a high. They have to be clost to the surest thing of the week with the team the Docker's are fielding. But I wouldn’t be getting on the Power at this short priced, nor would I be touching the line. So just sit back and enjoy the circus. And just remember, the Power are betting off finishing lower on the ladder for draft positions too. Ugly game of footy this one!
Tip: No Bet
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Carlton Blues (Saturday, September 5 at 4:40pm AEST)
And the final round fun continues with another blinder of a game as the Hawks take on the Blues. You can get a massive $1.01 on the Hawks to win this game or you can roll the dice and can a big return on your investment if you bet on the Blues. You would have to be very brave to do that - especially if you remember the last time these two teams met.
The Hawks look like they are resting a couple of players, but that wont stop them from ripping this game apart. The Blues are also without Murphy. Massive line looks fishy in the final week of the season, even though the Hawks are jostling for position in the top four. Won’t be touching this one.
Tip: No Bet
Sydney Swans Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, September 5 at 7:25pm AEST)
At the start of the season we thought the Suns were a chance to make the top eight and now here we are in Round 23 and they are 16th on the ladder. That’s where they will stay when they get thumped by the Swans this Saturday night.
This is another case of the short priced favourite being close to sure things. It’s a dead rubber game and a chance for the Swans to see what an in-form Kurt Tippett and a recovering Lance Franklin can produce up forward. I’m leaning towards the Swans to cover the line here at home, but we just have to be weary of them managing their players in preparation for the finals.
Tip: Swans at the line (-53.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
West Coast Eagles Vs. St Kilda Saints (Saturday, September 5 at 5:40pm AWST)
Yep. Another team paying $1.04 and their opponent paying double figures. Round 23 is getting a bit boring by this point - unless you enjoy teams putting up massive scores and humiliating their foes.
The Eagles make a few changes coming into this game, but actually bring a couple of important players back in. With this at Domain, you get the feeling the Eagles might be really taking this one seriously and trying their best to bounce back after their loss to Adelaide last week. The last time these two met in Round 5 of this year the Eagles won by 53 points and we think this one might be similar - especially if the Eagles get back to their scoring best that they showed us a fortnight ago at Domain against the Bulldogs.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-53.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Melbourne Demons Vs. GWS Giants (Sunday, September 6 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Giants have probably overachieved this year, but will ultimately be disappointed that they didn’t end up making the finals. Their opponent this week, the Demons, have probably had the season we all expected, but will be keen to get one more win on the board to further show their improvement on last year.
A few weeks ago when a spot in the top eight was on the line I would have said this was a definite GWS win. In the last round of the season, however, and with the game at Etihad I think the Demons are value here. The Giants will be without Coniglio and Griffen and I get the feeling will have one eye on next season. The Demons, meanwhile, could be keen to make a mends for their terrible last few weeks.
Tip: Demons to win Hd-Hd (use Sportsbet lead at any qrt special) - $2.55
Collingwood Magpies Vs. Essendon Bombers (Sunday, September 6 at 3:20pm AEST)
A big Magpies V Bombers clash at the MCG is usually a crowd drawing blockbuster. But this is Round 23 and with nothing on the line, you can’t see a massive crowd getting involved in this one.
The last time these two teams meat the Pies won by 20 points and I think this will be a similar result. Both teams are proud clubs and both will be keen to finish the year strongly. But ultimately the Bombers will be trying to put the year behind them and will find this too tough. With Dane Swan out and a few other changes, I think the Bombers can keep it close(ish), so will be getting on the Pies under 39.5.
Tip: Magpies by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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