After a solid month of punting, last week was the worst our AFL betting tips have fared all year! Hopefully we can turn that around this weekend as we offer up our AFL Round 22 betting tips.
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Geelong Cats Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Friday, August 28 at 7:50pm AEST)
This Friday night at the MCG is a massive game of footy for the Geelong Cats. They need to beat the Pies to make the finals. A few other things need to go there way as well, but the first step is winning this game.
The Cats will be really disappointed with their draw with the Saints last week. They had every chance to win that game, but some costly mistakes blew it. They should come into this game fired up to redeem themselves and I think they will have some confidence too as the Pies have lost eight in a row and are coming off being monstered by the Tigers.
The last time these two met the Cats won by 41 points. That was in Round 6 of this year at the MCG. There aren't too many compelling reasons to think this will be a different result. I also think the old guard at Geelong will really be fired up to finish the year strong as a few of them will be either finishing up at the end of the year, or maybe even auditioning to stay on the list. I do think the Pies will have some pride about them after Pendlebury’s ‘playing for nothing’ comments during the week, so they might get within a few goals. Think the value play is Geelong under 39.5 here.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at Sportsbet
GWS Giants Vs. Carlton Blues (Saturday, August 29 at 1:45pm AEST)
Carlton have been the talk of the town this week as Brendan Bolton was announced as the new head coach. The talk this Saturday, however, will be all about how the Blues posted yet another loss as they head to Spotless Stadium to take on the Giants.
The Blues actually managed a rare win last week against a struggling Demons, while the GWS were smashed by the Swans. That loss squashed any chances of making the Top 8 for the Giants, but I get the feeling they already counted themselves out of the race.
The fact this game is at Spotless will be the difference. Oh, and Marc Murphy and Andrew Carrazzo are both out. You just couldn’t bet on the Blues here. With six changes from the Giants, however, and such a terrible performance last week, I don’t think the Giants will find enough to blow this out. Treating this as a Giants win, but another competitive game.
Tip: GWS by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Brisbane Lions (Saturday, August 29 at 2:10pm AEST)
The Lions are paying $21 to beat the Hawks this week. It’s not often you see those kind of odds in a two horse race. But that’s what happens when you are playing the mighty Hawks down in Tasmania.
The Hawks have scored over 130 points the last three times they have played the Lions. I think they will easily score that much again - especially considering they are coming off a disappointing loss last week. This mob will bounce back and bounce back hard. The Lions will also be without Redden which is a huge loss. Could you put your hard earned on a 70-point line though? Maybe, but I lean towards sitting this one out.
Tip: No Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Western Bulldogs (Saturday, August 29 at 4:35pm AEST)
The biggest game of the round is no doubt the Roos taking on the Dogs at Etihad Stadium. Both teams are fighting for position in the top eight and both are fired up after a big couple of months of footy.
The Dogs are coming off their worst defeat of the season against the Eagles. They actually were very competitive for three quarters, but the powerful Eagles kicked away in the final quarter. The Dogs fielded an extremely inexperienced team last week and will be happy to get the experience of Matt Boyd, Liam Picken and Jordan Roughead back in the side.
The Roos, meanwhile, are at the other end of the spectrum, coming off their best win of the season against the Dockers. There is no doubt they were impressive last week, but you do get the feeling the Dockers certainly haven't been at their best. I think this one comes down to the odds - i rate this game an even matchup, but we can get the Bulldogs at $2.22. I’ll be getting on the Bulldogs at those odds using the CrownBet 80-point special, plus a small play on the Dogs by 1-39 points.
Tip: Bulldogs Hd-Hd - $2.20 using CrownBet 80-point bonus special
+ Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.80 at Sportsbet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Richmond Tigers (Saturday, August 29 at 7:20pm AEST)
Tiger fans are up and about and no doubt they will head to the MCG in droves this Saturday night as they gear up for a likely win against the Bombers.
The Tigers deserve to be heavy favourites, but there are still so many unknowns about the Bombers. They played better footy last week in their two point loss to the Suns, so maybe the departure of James Hird did help their mindset. It won’t have helped enough to beat the Tigers, however. The Bombers will simply be outclassed in this game. They will be happy to see that Trent Cotchin is out, but ultimately the Bombers wont be able to put a big enough score on the board. They have the worst accuracy in the comp and have averaged just 66 over the last 12 games. The Tigers, meanwhile, have put up two massive scores in the last fortnight and look primed to do that again. With not too much to play for I lean towards the Tigers covering the 6+ goal line, but you have to worry at this time of year that top eight teams will take the foot off the pedal late in games to not wear themselves out. Might be safer to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, August 29 at 7:20pm AEST)
Port Adelaide really surprised us last week when they defeated the Hawks at Etihad. They played like the fast paced Power of 2014. Will they come out and play like that for the rest of the season? It’s a tough question to answer. There is an argument to be made that they really turned it on for the Hawks due to the recent history of the two teams. I do think, however, that regardless it would have been confidence building and they might head to the Gold Coast this Saturday with a new pep in their step.
All roads point to a Port Adelaide win. They have a great record against the Suns, winning the last four, including three at Metricon. They also dominate the Suns in most stats. Despite their poor season, the Power actually rank very strongly in tackling and clearances - two departments the Suns do not excel in. Despite this game being on the road we don’t mind the look of Power to cover the line.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-19.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Adelaide Crows Vs. West Coast Eagles (Sunday, August 30 at 12:40pm ACST)
The Crows snuck into the top eight last week with a big win over the Lions and will need to keep winning to secure a spot in the finals. Unfortunately, however, they will have to take on the all-powerful Eagles this Sunday.
This being at Adelaide Oval is a big advantage for the Crows after the Eagles showed just how dominating they are at home last week when they booted 25 goals agains the Bulldogs. The Eagles did win the last time they played at Adelaide Oval, so they might not be too worried.
The Crows come into this with an extra day break and this will be the second game in a row at home. They should be well rested and come out firing in order to make the top eight. But this ends up coming down to form and at these juicy odds how could you resist the Eagles? They still need to secure their spot in the top two and they are in rare form to keep the momentum going. The Crows will be competitive, but the Eagles are the value - especially using the CrownBet 80-point special.
Tip: West Coast Hd-Hd - $1.80 using the CrownBet 80-point bonus special
St Kilda Saints Vs. Sydney Swans (Sunday, August 30 at 3:20pm AEST)
With the Bulldogs and Richmond lurking, the Swans can’t afford to lose any more games if they want to secure a spot in the top four. Luckily for them they have an easy last couple of games starting with the Saints this Sunday.
The Swans have named Lance Franklin this week and seem o keen to get some k’s back in his legs before the finals series. The impact he will have remains to be seen, but regardless it will be a daunting prospect for the Saints - especially with Kurt Tippett firing up over the last few weeks. Etihad won’t worry the Swans either, so it isn't looking good for the Swans. This is another spot where I lean towards the favourite covering the line, but personally will be sitting out betting this game as the Saints might be fired up after their draw with the Cats last week.
Tip: No Bet
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Melbourne Demons (Sunday, August 30 at 2:40pm AWST)
Despite coming up against the abysmal Demons, the Dockers will not be taking this game lightly. They have lost two in a row and need to regain some confidence heading into their finals campaign. The Demons, meanwhile, have been playing their worst football of the year, getting smashed by the Bulldogs a fortnight ago before losing to Carlton last week.
The question marks around this game will once again be whether or not the Dockers can put a big enough score on the board. If they can’t score 100+ against the Demons, they certainly aren't going to be able to against the Hawks and Eagles. The last time these two teams met was at the MCG in Round 5 of this year. The Dockers put up a rare big score and smashed the Dees by 68 points. Unfortunately Nat Fyfe is out, but I do still think the Dockers will really come out firing and try to make a statement with this game.
Tip: Fremantle at the line (-42.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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