Last week was quite a successful punting round of the 2015 AFL season as some huge value was found on some of the ‘roughies’. This week looks a little tougher, but hopefully we can still find some winners with our AFL Round 18 betting tips.
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Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Richmond Tigers (Friday, July 30 at 7:50pm AEST)
Games haven’t got much bigger than this one during the 2015 season as the mighty Hawks take on the charging Tigers on a Friday night at the MCG. The Hawks are looking unstoppable, while the Tigers are 5th on the ladder and eying off a top four spot.
The Tigers have won four of the last five games, with their one loss coming in the dying moments of an epic clash with the Dockers last week. That game would have taken its toll on the Tigers, but it also would have given them confidence and more self-belief that they can rumble with some of the best teams in the comp.
Unfortunately, however, Hawthorn isn’t simply ‘some’ team. They are the best team. They thrive on the big stage and have never looked better. They will beat the Tigers.
The scoring power of the Hawks has been on display over the last few weeks and while the Tigers will prepare for this, they won’t find enough to get a victory. I do, however, lean towards the Tigers keeping this game much closer than recent Hawthorn winning margins would suggest. I will be taking Hawks under 39.5.
Tip: Hawthorn Hawks by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.35 at Sportsbet
Geelong Cats Vs. Brisbane Lions (Saturday, August 1 at 1:45pm AEST)
There is no doubt the Lions have had a tough year. They are bottom of the ladder and I think it will stay that way for the rest of the season. It will certainly stay that way this week as they head down to Simonds Stadium to take on the Cats.
A few weeks ago we were all saying the Cats are struggling and Simonds Stadium isn’t the ‘fortress’ it once was. Since then the Cats have had a couple of good wins, looking solid against the Giants last week and even better against the Bulldogs the week before.
I do think the Cats will win quite easily, but I have some problems with the 40 point line. The Lions do get Beams and Hanley back, which has to help them a little, but I’m more concerned with the Cats ability to put teams away. They beat the Giants by 27 points last week, scoring just 69 and defeated the Dogs by 8 points the week before. The Cats are averaging just over 80 points a game this season and have only scored 100 points or more five times this year. There are also reports of some rain around Geelong / Melbourne on Saturday, so I’m leaning towards the Cats in a close one.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.45 at Sportsbet
Collingwood Magpies Vs. Melbourne Demons (Saturday, August 1 at 2:10pm AEST)
Another Round 18 game with a heavy favourite as the Magpies take on the Demons at the MCG. The black and white army will be chomping at the bit to get back on the MCG and get their first win in six games. After such a strong start to the season it’s almost unbelievable that they have lost five games in a row. Of course, all the fans will tell you how close they got to beating the best sides in the comp, but a loss is a loss. Luckily this one should be an easy win.
The Demons come into this game having only won five games for the season, with two of those wins coming in recent times. Last week, however, was one of the worst games of the year for Melbourne as they went down to the Saints by 37 points and scored just 46 for the game. Luckily for them, the Pies will be without Travis Cloke once again this week as the Pies hope young Darcy Moore can reproduce last week’s efforts that saw him bag five goals. We are happy to take Collingwood at the line here.
Tip: Collingwood at the line (-22.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
Sydney Swans Vs. Adelaide Crows (Saturday, August 1 at 4:35pm AEST)
I’m somewhat surprised to see the Swans only paying $1.40 here against the Crows. They were so poor against the Eagles and Hawks over the last two weeks. If they put up anything like those performances again they will struggle against Adelaide. The reason for those odds is because the game is at Sydney and of course, because Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett are back in the side. But I’m still not so sure they will find this game easy.
The Crows have looked quite dangerous heading towards goal the last few weeks and are the best clearance team in the comp. No doubt the Swans will be better off with their inclusions (Ted Richards is also back), but ultimately I think the value here is in the Crows plus the points.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (+16.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Carlton Blues Vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, August 1 at 7:20pm AEST)
After looking better for a brief moment after Mick Malthouse was out the door, the Blues are back to their worst and the season isn’t going to get any better this Saturday when they play the Roos.
This one is very simple – the Kangaroos will win. They looked dangerous on the road against Brisbane last week and even better against the Bombers on a Friday night the week before. They have won four of the last five and are finally eying off September after a purple patch earlier in the season. Personally, I am a little iffy on the 36 point line. I would probably lean towards the Roos covering, but will sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns Vs. West Coast Eagles (Saturday, August 1 at 7:20pm AEST)
The Suns must be dreading this game against the Eagles. Have the Eagles ever looked better? Maybe back in the Judd and Cousins premiership days, but that’s about it. They come into this game with huge momentum and you could never, ever back Gold Coast here.
The last time these two sides met was Round 7 of this year with the Eagles winning by 92 points. The Suns were without Gary Ablett back then and once again will be without him after he did his knee last week. We know what happens to the Suns without Ablett. They crumble. There is no reason to think the Eagles will take their foot off the pedal. The game is at Metricon, but the Eagles should still score 120+ points.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-46.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide Power Vs. St Kilda (Sunday, August 2 at 12:40pm ACST)
The Saints wouldn’t be overly excited about heading to Adelaide this Sunday to take on the Power. They were, however, very solid against the Demons last week and have troubled some good clubs this year.
The Power got a win against Essendon in a free flowing game last week. I find it unlikely that the Saints will let the game open up like that. They are going to need to lock the Power down and stop the likes of Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray.
I’m not sure the Saints can win this game on the road, but I do think the line is far too generous. The Saints have been competitive against the middle tier teams like the Power this week, so I think there is some value on them at the line.
Tip: Saints at the line (+32.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Western Bulldogs (Sunday, August 2 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Western Bulldogs continue to build on an impressive season that none of us expected. They were at their best last week against the Magpies and the Bombers wouldn’t like their chances going into this game at Etihad on Sunday afternoon.
The Bombers looked pretty solid for big sections of their loss against the Power last week, but nowhere near as strong as the Bulldogs did last round. It really looks like the Bulldogs have created a culture this year that has players fighting for a spot in the team, while the Bombers have to start thinking about putting some game time in their younger players as the season heads to the pointy end. The Bombers have a good record against the Dogs, but the red, white and blue have never looked better. Happy to get on them at the line.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (-14.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
Fremantle Dockers Vs. GWS Giants (Sunday, August 2 at 2:40pm AWST)
The final game of Round 18 sees the Giants head out west to play the top of the ladder Dockers on their home turf. Yes, the Giants have been solid this season, but this is going to be a very tough game for them and will see them slip further out of the top eight.
The Giants will be very happy to face the Dockers without Nat Fyfe, but will still have to take on Barlow, Mundy and Neale who will all be fed the ball by a dominating Aaron Sandilands. Good luck to Giants’ big man Tom Downie!
There are still some questions around the Dockers scoring power as they have only scored over 100 points five times this year. That’s why I won’t be touching the almost five goal line and will instead sit out betting on this game.
Tip: No Bet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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