The byes are finally over and it’s back to nine AFL betting tips every weekend. Once again we kick off with a Thursday night game. Read on for our full preview and AFL Round 14 betting tips.
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Sydney Swans Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Thursday, July 2 at 7:20pm AEST)
The question we have been hearing all week is: How are the Swans going to win without big Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett? Well, they won a premiership without these guys and I think they have enough depth to cover. Adam Goodes isn’t what he used to be, but can still cause trouble in the forward line, while Sam Reid was great in the forward half a couple of years back. Throw in running goal kickers like Luke Parker and I don’t think you have to worry about the Swans.
Port Adelaide, meanwhile, have plenty to worry about. There aren’t many reasons to think they can win this game and that’s even taking into account the Buddy and Tippett outs. The Power will be happy to have had a week off and might even fancy themselves a chance after the Swans lost to Richmond last week. Prior to that misstep, however, the Swans were playing fantastically and we will judge them on those performances.
One of the major factors to consider here is that Port Adelaide’s record against the Swans is woeful. They lost by just shy of 50 points earlier this year on their own home turf, while the game is at SCG – a venue where the Power haven’t won since 2006. In fact, the Swans have won 11 of the past 12 games against the Power.
Tip: Sydney Swans by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at CrownBet
Collingwood Magpies Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Friday, July 3 at 7:50pm AEST)
Do games get any bigger than the Magpies up against the Hawks on a Friday night at the MCG? This game would be massive during any season at any time of the year, but especially at this point in 2015 with the Magpies currently 5th on the ladder and the Hawks 4th.
Every week we seem to be talking about how the Magpies continue to surprise us. At some point a big win has to stop being a surprise and we have to start talking about a team like they are a real premiership contender. We don’t think they are yet, but a real surprise, and something that might change our minds, would be a win here against the Hawks.
Collingwood struggle against Hawthorn and they know that. The last time they won against the brown and gold was back in the 2011 preliminary final. Since then the Hawks have won seven on the trot by an average of almost seven goals.
This game is a battle of the big scoring teams with the Hawks averaging the most goals per game in the comp and the Pies ranked third. We do, however, think the Hawks have a better back half than the Pies and that’s where this game will be won. We lean toward Hawks under 39.5.
Tip: Hawthorn Hawks by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Richmond Tigers Vs. GWS Giants (Saturday, July 4 at 1:40pm AEST)
The Tigers are continuing to build momentum in 2015 as they sit sixth on the ladder after their big win over the Swans last week. And it looks like it will be another tick in the win column this week as the Tigers come up against the other Sydney side – the GWS Giants.
This game is at the MCG which the Giants have historically struggled at. The Tigers, meanwhile, will relish playing on this ground on Saturday afternoon.
The fact the Giants are without Shane Mumford is huge. Despite having a very talented midfield, you have to give the edge to the Tigers in this regard. Throw in the fact Jack Reiwoldt kicked 11 against the Giants last year and we have ourselves a recipe for a big Tigers’ victory. Don’t mind the five goal line here.
Tip: Richmond Tigers at the line (-29.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Gold Coast Suns Vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, July 4 at 4:35pm AEST)
What can we say about the Suns this week that hasn’t been said already? The off field controversy has stolen so much of the media attention that we barely anybody has mentioned that Gary Ablett has been named in the side. Can the best player in the comp help the desperate Suns win against the Kangaroos? Nope.
Interestingly the Suns have won the last two contests against the Kangaroos, but they have never had to deal with pressures such as the current drug scandal that sees Harley Bennell side lined. It will be interesting to see how the Suns respond this week. There is no doubt the Roos will be taking the Suns lightly. They are currently 11th on the ladder and need every win they can. We favour the Roos at the line here, with a rusty Ablett and a tumultuous young side unable to compete.
Tip: North Melbourne at the line (-25.5) - $1.92
Western Bulldogs Vs. Carlton Blues (Saturday, July 4 at 7:20pm AEST)
It’s somewhat surprising to see the Bulldogs paying $1.50 in this game. Three weeks ago the Dogs would have been $1.15 favourites, but after a couple of wins everyone seems to be getting excited about the Blues. We don’t think we have seen enough to get too excited just yet.
The Bulldogs have met the Blues at Etihad 11 times and won six of those games and are primed to make it seven. After a solid win against the Saints last week the Bulldogs are in the top eight and looking like finals contenders. Much has been said about the Bulldogs half back line being the best in the comp with Mathew Boyd, Jason Johannisen and Bob Murphy providing all the ball movement, while Easton Wood is the best intercept marker in the league at the moment. Like many of the Bulldogs wins, this is where they will find the edge. We certainly don’t rate the Blues forward line too highly, so this will cause them headaches and set up a strong Bulldogs win.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (-13.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Melbourne Demons Vs. West Coast Eagles (Saturday, July 4 at 7:10pm AEST)
The Eagles and Demons head to TIO Stadium in Darwin on Saturday night. Despite this being a Melbourne home game you would have to be very brave to get your money on them – especially against a fired up Eagles. West Coast are 2nd on the ladder for a reason and after a well-deserved rest last week will be fired up to continue the momentum of their stellar season.
The Demons will be hoping for a repeat performance of their victory over Geelong a fortnight ago, but West Coast will be a huge challenge. The Eagles are ranked third for inside 50s, second for scoring and fifth for marks inside 50. These sorts of stats will cause the Melbourne backline real problems. The Demons will also be without Heritier Lumumba who provides plenty of run off half back. The problem with this game is the 26-point line. We lean towards West Coast covering, but will sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
Essendon Bombers Vs. St Kilda Saints (Sunday, July 5 at 1:10pm AEST)
This game at Etihad on Saturday afternoon is the most interesting matchup of the round. Preason you would have pencilled in an Essendon victory here, but with four losses on the trot, they are clearly struggling. The Saints, meanwhile, have shown some very positive signs lately. They did lose to the Bulldogs last week, but they looked strong.
It’s almost baffling that the Bombers are warm favourites. I really think the odds should be evens here. The Saints have shown they have the defensive chops to keep teams to low scores – which will compound on the fact the Bombers are ranked 16th for points scored per game this year. At these odds we can’t go past St Kilda.
Tip: St Kilda to win head-to-head - $2.30 at William Hill
Adelaide Crows Vs. Geelong Cats (Sunday, July 5 at 2:50pm AEST)
Both the Adelaide Crows and the Geelong Cats have had strange years. At times they have looked like real finals contenders, while there have been some weeks where you really have to wonder – Geelong’s loss to Melbourne at home being one of those times.
The Cats really did look weary against Melbourne and will be happy to have had a break last week. The Crows, meanwhile, weren’t very impressive in their win against the Lions last week, only just getting on top of things during the late stages of the final quarter.
This is another game where we consider it close to a coin flip. The Cats are fresh off a break and will be fighting hard to stay into finals contention, while you get the feeling even the Crows know their season is going backwards. Throw in the fact that Rory Sloane has re-injured himself and we lean towards the Cats as the value play.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.75 at CrownBet
UPDATE: Due to the tragic news of Adelaide's coach Phil Walsh's passing early on Friday morning, this game has been cancelled. The AFL decided to award two premiership points to each team.
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Brisbane Lions (Sunday, July 5 at 2:40pm AEST)
The final game of Round 14 seems like the simplest of the lot as the 17th place Lions travel out west to play the top-of-the-ladder Dockers on their home turf. Oh and they have to do it with a few of their key players out including their two best players in Pearce Hanley and Tom Rockliff.
The question regarding betting on this game isn’t if Fremantle are going to win, it’s deciding how much they could win by. On first sight we actually lean towards Brisbane to cover the almost ten-goal line, but you would have to be brave to bet such a big line considering Fremantle haven’t been at their best of late. The Dockers midfield will no doubt dominate the Lions and that’s where this game will be won, but we are going to sit out betting on this one.
Tip: No Bet.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
