After another solid week of AFL betting tips we are ready for more. It’s hard to believe it’s already Round 10. By now we are getting a good feel for where each team is at and hopefully can start picking up even more winners. Read on for our AFL Round 10 betting tips.
_ _ _
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Richmond Tigers (Friday, June 5 at 6:10pm AWST)
The first game of Round 10 sees us head out west as the top of the ladder Dockers take on the Tigers. After a rough start to the season the Tigers have won three in a row. They won’t be adding another win to that tally either. The Dockers, however, will finish up Round 10 with a perfect record so far this year.
Much has been said about the Dockers defence this year and in this case it is as simple as saying that the Tigers will certainly find it tough to score. The Dockers have conceded 62 points on average per game this season, while the Tigers have conceded 77.8 points.
Tip: Dockers at the line (-29.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues Vs. Adelaide Crows (Saturday, June 6 at 1:40pm AEST)
When will the season turn around for the Blues? Probably never and certainly not against the Crows this weekend, despite the game being at the MCG.
Blues fans will yell and scream that they have Marc Murphy, Chris Judd and Matthew Kreuzer back in the side this week and think they have some sort of chance. But we must not forget how much they struggled even when these guys were playing. The Crows, meanwhile, have a couple of big ins of their own with Rory Sloane and Broadie Smith.
The Blues do have a solid record at the MCG against the Crows and have had an extra day’s break after their abysmal performance against the Swans last week. There are a few reasons to suggest the Blues will be slightly more competitive than they have been so far this year, but certainly no reason to bet on them.
Tip: Adelaide by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at CrownBet
Gold Coast Suns Vs. Sydney Swans (Saturday, June 6 at 4:35pm AEST)
Gold Coast have been the disappointment of the season and it doesn’t look like they will lose that title anytime soon. During the week the media tried to drum up more excuses for them, claiming that Gary Ablett needs to play injured and come fight for his team. If they are relying on one player that much there are huge problems. The Swans don’t rely on one player and that’s why they are a great team.
The Swans are better than the Suns in every way. They are the number one tackling team in the comp and you can’t see the Suns handling the pressure. Lance Franklin turned it on last week and will cause headaches for the Suns if can do that again. The problem with this game is the almost ten goal line. We bet the Swans to beat a massive line last week and didn’t quite get there. We are going to fade this game.
Tip: No Bet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Geelong Cats (Saturday, June 6 at 7:20pm AEST)
This game at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night is perhaps the most interesting of the round. Prior to the season kicking off we had both Essendon and the Cats as top eight chances but both teams have had shaky starts at four wins and five losses.
The Cats are slight favourites to win this game and we think they might be the value of the round. The Bombers (like the Cats) have struggled in clearances and losing Jobe Watson to injury certainly won’t help them in this regard. The Bombers have also struggled to convert their efforts into a score, averaging only 78 points per game. Sure, the Cats are only marginally better with 84 points a game, but they have a strong record against the Bombers.
Port Adelaide Power Vs. Western Bulldogs (Saturday, June 6 at 7:10pm ACST)
Before last week both the Power and the Bulldogs had lost three games in a row. Then they both got onto the winner’s list with Port demolishing the Demons and the Dogs overcoming the Giants.
Port Adelaide go into this game as favourites, perhaps mostly because it’s at Adelaide Oval. Otherwise two weeks ago the AFL world was talking about Port being terrible and that they had lost their finesse. They were certainly better last week, but that was only against Melbourne. Don’t get us wrong, we don’t think the Bulldogs will win, especially without Bontempelli and Picken, but they do get Crameri and Stringer back and there looks like some value around the almost five-goal line.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (+28.5) - $1.91 at William Hill
GWS Giants Vs. Brisbane Lions (Sunday, June 7 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Giants have been the overachievers of the year so far. That is until their terrible performance against the Bulldogs last week. Was that the Giants’ bubble bursting or just a misstep? We will find out in this game against the Lions.
This will be the first time the Lions have travelled to Spotless Stadium and there is no doubt this will be a tough game for them – especially considering their outs of Claye Beams, Tom Rockliff, Jed Adcock and James Aish. They have, however, named Pearce Hanley, which will be a huge in if he definitely plays. Certainly like the Giants to win here, but lean towards the Lions at the big 7-8 goal line. Safer to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
North Melbourne Vs. West Coast Eagles (Sunday at 3:20pm AEST)
How much affect will missing your coach to injury have? Maybe having assistant coach Darren Crocker at the helm will help the Roos bounce back after their shocking loss to the Pies last week. Maybe the team will fall to pieces. Regardless, they will be facing a tough Eagles side that have won five on the trot and don’t look like slowing down.
The Eagles are only slight favourites here and that is because this game is at the Roos’ second home in Tasmania. However, the Eagles are one of the few teams to have beaten the Roos at Blundstone. The Roos will be happy to get Swallow back in the side, but the Eagles will be just as happy to have Elliot Yeo return to the team. When it comes down to it, on current form, there is no reason to think the Roos can beat the Eagles.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-6.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
St Kilda Saints Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Sunday, June 7 at 4:40pm AEST)
It’s surprising that the Hawks haven’t won consecutive games this season, especially considering we don’t doubt that they are still one of the best teams in the comp. This game against the Saints on Sunday afternoon should be the first time the brown and gold get back-to-back wins.
The Saints were solid on the road against the Lions last week and will take some confidence from that win, but with the Hawks getting Jordan Lewis, Ryan Schoenmakers and Will Langford back in the side, you just can’t see the Saints getting close. The bookmakers seem to have it right with a 57-point line. Tough game to bet.
Tip: No Bet
Melbourne Demons Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Monday, June 8 at 3:20pm AEST)
All the talk around this game has been the ‘Big Freeze at the ‘G’ which is Neale Daniher’s passion project that aims to fight the disease MND. Will the occasion make the Demons step up for their former coach? Maybe. But in general we shouldn’t use factors like this to make our betting decisions.
The fact is that the Demons are coming off a ten-goal hiding, while the Pies were solid in their victory against the Roos last week. Prior to their loss, however, the Demons were very good against the Bulldogs and will be happy to have two extra days in their usual training cycle before this game against the Pies on Monday afternoon.
Really tough game to pick. Can’t see the Demons let it blow out, but can’t see them winning either. The Pies midfield will be just too strong. Expecting a strong effort from the Demons, but think the Pies will get the win.
Tip: Collingwood by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at CrownBet
_ _ _
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
