We are now heading into the second half of the year as Round 13 of the 2014 AFL season is about to kick off. We bagged plenty of winners in the first half and hope the second will be just as lucrative. Make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 13 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 13 Preview
Round 13 begins on Friday evening with Carlton Blues Vs. Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG. The Blues have lost the last ten straight against the Hawks and we expect this to make it 11. The line that the sports books have set is a little high though and perhaps under selling the Blues. They will be brimming with confidence after last week’s effort and you have to remember that the Hawks are still sans their coach and not playing their best 22. The defence is where the Hawks are the most undermanned and they are lucky that the Blues don’t excel up forward or else the game may have been in danger. Expecting the Blues to keep it within five goals.
The first Saturday game is Richmond Tigers Vs. Fremantle Dockers. The yellow and black are coming off one of their best halves of footy. They are also coming off one of their worst halves of Footy. That up and down game against North Melbourne last week pretty much sums up the Tigers. This game is the beginning of Fremantle’s easy draw. They should win this and then go on to barely lose a game for the rest of the year.
The game of the round is perhaps Sydney Swans Vs. Port Adelaide Power. The South Australian team is atop the ladder, two wins clear of dropping back to 2nd. Their only loss was to North Melbourne back in round three. This could be their second loss. The Swans have a great record against the Power, winning 8 of the last 9 and 9 of the last 12 at the SCG specifically. That record was in a time when Port were nowhere near where they are at now, but it’s certainly a factor. Both teams have hard running midfields, but the Swans combo of Kennedy/Jack/Hannebery gets the edge here. Port will need Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray to fire up in the forward line and will need to stop Buddy and Tippet from doing the same. Slight edge to Sydney here, but Port Adelaide will be extremely competitive and are a chance.
The West Coast Eagles Vs. Gold Coast Suns game is an interesting one. The Eagles confidence is perhaps at an all time low, losing seven of their last eight and sitting 11th on the ladder. The Suns have lost the last two against the Swans and the Crows, but both those outfits are better than the Eagles. The Eagles midfield will be dominated by Gary Ablett and the Suns, but have the edge in the ruck. As long as the Suns can stop Josh Kennedy up forward, they are a big chance.
Never would have thought Brisbane Lions Vs. GWS Giants would be a game to watch, but that’s exactly where we are at. The Lions were admirable last week, getting the win against the Bulldogs, while the Giants were far more competitive against the Hawks and the Dons than we expected. The Lions have thrashed the Giants on the two occasions they have played up at the Gabba and while it won’t be another thrashing, the Lions should make it three of three.
Adelaide Crows Vs Nth Melbourne Kangaroos is shaping up to be an intriguing game. It’s at Adelaide Oval and the Crows have won six in a row against the Roos at their home ground. This seems to bode poorly for the Roos, but consider that they havn’t lost away this year, defeating Sydney in Sydney and both Fremantle and West Coast over in WA. Adelaide do seem to match up well against Nth Melbourne, but on current form, the edge has to go to the Roos.
Sunday’s Geelong Cats Vs. St Kilda Saints game will be a good chance for the Cats to gain back some confidence after their Sydney thrashing and lucky (yet gallant) win against the Blues last week. Geelong have dominated the Saints in the past two years, even winning by 101 points in Round 18 of 2013. St Kilda have averaged less than 10 goals per game this year. Would be the shock of the round if they somehow beat the Cats. More likely is that Geelong win by ten goals.
There isn’t a lot to say about Collingwood Magpies Vs. Western Bulldogs. The Doggies were the talk of the town this week and not for good reasons. The Dogs record against the Pies isn’t good and they just can’t string together four quarters. True to their form this year, expect the Dogs to win a quarter or two, but get smashed in the other quarters. Too much class from Collingwood.
The final game of Round 13 is Essendon Bombers Vs. Melbourne Demons and it will be the one that gets the most scrutiny after the breaking news of the ASADA nonsense. Hard to know how much this will affect the players, but you would have to think at least a little, if not a lot. Add in the fact that Jobe Watson is out for the season and the Demons have a real chance here. Not as sold on the Demons winning this game as some people, but one to watch and see how the ASADA business unfolds as we get closer to the game. The Demons line seems like a solid option, especially considering their defensive style.
Round 13 Best Betting Tips
Hawthorn Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes ***
Port Adelaide +15.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Gold Coast Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $3 at Ladbrokes *
Melbourne +17.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 13 Tipping Advice
Brisbane beating the Dogs last week was the only real upset as we (and a lot of the tipping world) picked up 8/9 correct tips. This week is a bit harder, but we will give it our best crack! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace.
Hawthorn (Carlton)
Fremantle (Richmond)
Port Adelaide (Sydney)
Gold Coast (West Coast)
Brisbane (GWS)
North Melbourne (Adelaide)
Geelong (St Kilda)
Collingwood (Bulldogs)
Melbourne (Essendon)
Score last round: 8
Total score: 67
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
