The byes are over and it’s back to regular business for the 2014 AFL season. We managed a great week with our sports betting tips last round, picking three out of four at average odds of around $2.20. Hopefully this week can be just as profitable. Read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 11 preview, betting tips and tipping advice.
2014 AFL Round 11 Preview
Round 11 of the 2014 AFL season begins on a Thursday evening with Sydney Swans Vs. Geelong Cats. It’s up in Sydney and is sure to be a cracking game between two sides in premiership contention. The Swans are definitely one of the in-form teams of the moment, winning the last five games, including bouts against the Hawks and the Dockers. On recent form, the Swans win this, but the Cats overall form against Sydney can’t be overlooked. They have won the last 12 out of 14 games, including two of the last three up in Sydney. They also have the edge long term in games up in Sydney, running at a win rate of around 60%. Stevey Johnson is back in, which is huge for the Cats, but not as huge as the bad news – Tom Lonergan and Corey Enright have both missed the flight to Sydney. These two players make up a hugely important part of the Cats backline. Hard to see the rest of the boys compensating for these outs against the Swans strong forward line. Will be a tough game, but definitely leaning towards a Swans victory.
Friday night’s Collingwood Magpies Vs. St Kilda Saints should be an easy one to pick. Quite simply, the Pies will win. The only solace the Saints will take is the fact the Pies have a bad record at Etihad Stadium. Definitely won’t be enough to get the Saints over the line though. Pies run will be far too strong and even if Travis Cloke continues his poor form, the Pies should win by six goals plus. Perhaps too hard to bet with a 7-8 goal line in place though.
Saturday afternoon will see Port Adelaide Power Vs. Melbourne Demons take place at Traeger Park in Alice Springs. There are plenty of arguments as to why the Roos coached Demons will be competitive, but at the end of the day they will be outclassed by the in-form Port. Furthermore the Demons have struggled to get it inside 50 at all this year (mostly due to Roos game style) and will struggle even more with Chris Dawes out with suspension. He’s been integral to the Demons and will be sorely missed. Tough with a six goal line, but Port Adelaide should win comfortably.
The Brisbane Lions Vs. Carlton Blues game will see Mick Malthouse and his outfit looking to continue their resurgent form an hopefully move closer toward the top eight. Carlton have a great record against the Lions, winning the last five in a row, two of which were, like this game, at the Gabba. Expect that form to continue with another victory here and recent form suggest by at least three goals or so.
One of the most interesting games of the round is Essendon Bombers Vs. Richmond Tigers. Of course, this is the famous Dreamtime at the ‘G and will see a monster crowd take to Australia’s best sporting venue. The Tigers and Bombers form against each other is split down the middle at five a piece and historically it has always been pretty hard to pick these “event” type games. The Tigers will be brimming with confidence after their smashing of the GWS Giants last week and Jack Riewoldt will likely be hoping to put on another clinic. Both teams won games against each other last year, both by under 40 points apiece. This should be a similarly competitive game here. Leaning towards a Tigers win off the back of some confidence and the fact that the all-important Ivan Maric could be back. Watch for official teams on Friday.
Adelaide Crows Vs. Gold Coast Suns will take place at the notorious Adelaide Oval on Sunday afternoon. Crows are coming off a loss to the Blues and the Suns are coming off a record fifth straight win after overcoming the Bulldogs. The Suns have never beat the Crows, but they will be hoping that changes this weekend. The Suns are ranked number one for contested ball, while the Crows are ranked 11th. Ablett has always starred against the Crows, and will be looking to do so again after the controversy of his near-suspension during the week. The Crows’ Patrick Dangerfield also has a great record, kicking 11 goals in the last five meetings against the Suns. Adelaide are one of the best ball users in the comp, averaging fewer clangers than any other team this year, while the Suns average the highest amount of clangers. It’s a tough game to bet on, but leaning towards the Crows in a close one.
The red, white and blue don’t look like they are a chance in the Western Bulldogs Vs. Fremantle Dockers game. The Dogs started strong against the Suns last week, but ended up playing terrible and got thumped. The Dockers on the other hand are fresh off a bye after a big win against the Cats the week before. Dockers also have a great record at Etihad Stadium. The six-goal line is a tough one. Sit on it until Sunday.
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. GWS Giants… If you have to ask who wins this one, you shouldn’t be watching footy. Hawks by lots… and then some. They will be very keen on a confidence booster here after their injury woes and a few poor performances (by Hawks standard).
The final game of Round 11 is the West Coast Eagles Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos. It’s being pegged as a tough game to pick, but when you really look at it on paper the Eagles have won four games this year – against the Bulldogs, Demons, Saints and Giants. That’s about as easy as four wins get. The Roos on the other hand, have defeated Port Adelaide, Sydney and Fremantle. But and this is a big BUT… It’s so hard to know what Roos you are going to get. If we get the Roos who beat those top four sides, then the Eagles are no chance. If we get the sloppy inconsistent Roos then the Eagles are every chance – especially considering their immense record against Nth Melbourne at Patersons Stadium. Like the Roos at the underdog odds, but as always with this mob, betting with caution.
Round 11 Best Betting Tips
Sydney Swans Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes***
Carlton Blues -15.5 (line betting) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes**
Richmond Tigers Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.88 at Ladbrokes*
Nth Melbourne Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.88 at Ladbrokes*
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 11 Tipping Advice
Just the one wrong last week (Carlton) and so came out of the byes having in pretty good shape. It’s back to nine games in round 11 and it’s actually quite a tough round to pick, but we will give it our best! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace!
Sydney (Geelong)
Collingwood (Saints)
Port Adelaide (Melbourne)
Carlton (Brisbane)
Richmond (Essendon)
Gold Coast (Adelaide)
Fremantle (Western Bulldogs)
Hawks (GWS)
Nth Melbourne (West Coast)
Score last round: 5
Total Score: 53
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
