Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, August 14th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 3m.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 7 - (3) Decor E/W
Best Value Bet: Race 3 - (1) High Power
Not a race I'm really keen to bet in. (1) Hulk trialled well enough behind Human Nature and Yes Yes Yes leading into his first up run today. Those two horses both possess plenty of class so expect that trial form to stand up in a midweek maiden. He's been gelded during his most recent spell so he should be hard to beat if he's improved. (3) Contango has had two trials leading into his debut here and the most recent of those was pretty decent. Bjorn Baker will have him ready to go for his first trip to the races so he should be right in the finish. (7) Luvoir ran 3rd on debut in a small field of 5 at Canterbury. He started $21 on that occasion but the two that finished ahead of him might go alright, and the market certainly expects him to go well today. (11) Our Bellagio Miss had no luck on debut so $81 might be a bit over the odds here.
Siding with (2) Achondrite here who was luckless first up over 1400m here at Warwick Farm. He only got clear running late in the race but was only beaten 1.8L at the finish by Wimlah. We've seen Wimlah measure up in Saturday grade recently so I think that's a decent form line and with a bit more luck, Achondrite should be able to go close in this field. The query is barrier 1 but I think it's a good thing that James McDonald takes over from Hugh Bowman today. If he can get some luck in the straight he should be hard to hold out.
$9.00 looks a decent each way price for (1) High Power. He clearly ges much better on firm ground than he does on wet ground, so three of his five starts this prep can basically be forgiven. First up he ran behind subsequent Queensland Guineas winner Kolding, then raced three times on heavy tracks, before returning to form with a solid effort behind the impressive My Candidate at Rosehill on good ground last start. Back to midweek company today, gets the conditions he needs and should be competitive at a nice price.
There's a few non-winners ging around in this race! I can't take $2.10 about (6) Lifetime Quest given his record of one win and six placings from seven starts. He'll be right in the finish but whether he can get his nose in front is the issue. (3) Obelos is one I'll be backing at $6.00. He's first up today and having his second Australian preparation. He went close over 1400m second up last preparation. Whether he's ready to go first up is the query but he has the potential to improve, which you can't say about a lot of the others. (4) King Hewitt at $13 is another that is an appealing bet. He didn't have much luck at his only start last preparation and he's another that tackles this first up. Expecting him to run a good race at double figures.
(1) Bennelong Dancer resumes today and he's got a good first up record. Last time we saw him he ran 3rd to Noble Boy in the Country Championships Final. His last two first up runs have both been victories and I think he finds a very winnable midweek race today, with plenty of these bringing country and provincial form. The 2kg claim helps him here and he should be able to run well. (5) Herzegovina is one of those horses that has been winning in easier grade out of town, but he's had three starts this prep and hasn't looked like getting beaten. It's the right time for him to tackle a midweek city race and he can be competitive off what we've seen from him this time in.
(1) Knowitall Jack bounced back to winning ways last start. He should continue to improve today third up from a spell. The claim for Robbie Dolan takes a helpful 2kg off his back and he'll be right up on speed from barrier 6. So long as he's not pestered throughout the run, he should be in the finish. (7) Da Power carried 62kg to victory in the bush last start and did it with ease. He's won two from three this prep and now comes to the city with Bowman booked to ride. (12) Song And A Prayer was only narrowly beaten over 1400m at this track last start. We've seen her ridden on speed in her past two races but she might have to take a sit today. She looks the value at $8.00.
Two horses I want to back off the trials here and that's (3) Decor and (9) Ballistica. Decor has finished last in both her trials but she's only been 2.2L and 2.8L off the winner at the line. Both trials have been on the synthetic track and she hasn't been put under any pressure, so the finishing position is basically irrelevant. Bowman is booked for race day which is a pretty good sign and as usual, fresh is typically best for Godolphin horses. Expecting her to go close at each way odds. Ballistica has also had two trials leading into her first up run today. She's finished 1st and 2nd in those trials and looks ready to run a bold race today. She's got a good record at this distance and Tim Clark takes the ride which is a strong booking. She's so far failed to win first up from three attempts but she's had some excuses in those runs so it might be worth giving her another chance today. Happy to back Decor and save on Ballistica, or just back both for a good result.
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