Round 15 of the NBL26 season will take us into the new year with some epic matchups including a New Year's Eve doubleheader. There are nine games in total for Round 15 which takes place from Wednesday, December 31st through to Monday, January 5th. As always, we take you through our best bets for all of this round's games below!
NBL26 Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
Illawarra Hawks vs Tasmania JackJumpers
Wednesday 5:30pm AEDT (Dec 31), WIN Entertainment Centre
The New Year’s Eve clash between the Illawarra Hawks and the Tasmania JackJumpers shapes as a tight, grind-it-out contest, with both sides still searching for consistent offensive rhythm as Round 15 arrives. Illawarra have struggled to find fluency in the half court, often relying on defensive pressure and second-effort plays to stay competitive. Their scoring output has been uneven, with prolonged scoring droughts a recurring issue, particularly against disciplined defensive teams. At home, the Hawks tend to slow the tempo, prioritising structure and contesting every possession, which often keeps games close but low scoring.
Tasmania arrive with similar concerns at the offensive end. The JackJumpers have built their identity around defence, physicality and controlling the pace, but their shot-making has deserted them at times this season. Ball movement has been inconsistent, and they have found it difficult to generate easy looks in transition. Instead, many of their games have become half-court battles, where points are hard-earned and momentum swings are limited.
Given the shared offensive struggles and the defensive mindset of both teams, this matchup profiles as a slower, more tactical affair. Possessions should be valued, scoring runs may be brief, and defensive intensity is likely to dominate. With that in mind, the total points line of 179.5 looks high, making the under a strong play in a game that shapes as more about resistance than rhythm.
Under 179.5 Points
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
Cairns Taipans vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Wednesday 7:30pm AEDT (Dec 31), Cairns Convention Centre
The New Year’s Eve meeting between the Cairns Taipans and the South East Melbourne Phoenix presents an intriguing contrast as Round 15 rolls on. Cairns finally come into this matchup with a clean bill of health, a welcome boost after a disrupted start to the season. Despite that, results have been hard to come by, with the Taipans still searching for consistency on both ends of the floor. Execution has often fallen away late in games, but playing at home gives them a familiar environment where their energy and defensive pressure tend to lift.
South East Melbourne, by contrast, have been one of the more impressive sides this season. The Phoenix have shown balance across the court, combining disciplined defence with efficient scoring stretches that allow them to control games. Their ability to dictate tempo has been a key factor in their strong record, particularly against teams lower on the ladder, where they have rarely allowed opponents to play freely.
Even so, this shapes as a tougher assignment than the ladder might suggest. Cairns traditionally lift in front of their home crowd and, with their full rotation available, should be more competitive for longer stretches. While the Phoenix deserve favouritism, the Taipans’ defensive resolve and improved continuity make them well placed to keep this contest close and cover the +9.5 spread.
Cairns Taipans +9.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane Bullets vs Perth Wildcats
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 1), Brisbane Entertainment Centre
The New Year’s Day matchup between the Brisbane Bullets and the Perth Wildcats brings together two sides looking to steady their form as Round 15 continues. Brisbane remain second last on the ladder at 6–16 and are coming off a tough 25-point loss to the red-hot Kings, a result that reflected the gap in class on the night. That defeat, however, followed a stretch where the Bullets were far more competitive, staying in games through improved defensive effort and a willingness to grind out possessions, particularly on their home floor.
Perth arrive in fifth at 11–10 but are also searching for consistency. The Wildcats were beaten by 11 points by the 36ers in their most recent outing, a loss that made it four defeats from their past six games. While they continue to show patches of quality, lapses in execution and defensive focus have hurt them, especially when momentum turns against them away from home.
On paper, Perth rightly deserve favouritism given their ladder position and overall depth. However, Brisbane’s recent competitiveness and home-court energy suggest this may be closer than expected. If the Bullets can limit scoring runs and control the tempo, they look capable of hanging around and covering the +6.5 spread in a tighter contest than the standings imply.
Brisbane Bullets +6.5
$1.93 (1 Unit)
Adelaide 36ers vs Sydney Kings
Friday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 2), Adelaide Entertainment Centre
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Illawarra Hawks vs Cairns Taipans
Saturday 5:30pm AEDT (Jan 3), WIN Entertainment Centre
The Hawks are eighth at 7–13 and have struggled to build momentum across the season, finding consistency particularly hard to come by on the offensive end. While they have remained competitive in stretches, close losses have been a recurring theme, and they have rarely been able to put teams away convincingly. That trend is reflected in the numbers, with Illawarra managing just one win by seven points or more across their past ten outings.
Cairns arrive in Wollongong anchored to the bottom of the standings at 5–16 and are also enduring a difficult campaign. The Taipans have shown flashes of resilience but have been unable to sustain it for long periods, often fading late in games. Like the Hawks, their recent form has been patchy, making this contest particularly hard to read.
The season series sits at one win apiece, underlining how evenly matched these teams have been despite their ladder positions. Illawarra are listed as 6.5-point favourites, but given their inability to win comfortably, the slight value leans towards the Taipans covering the +6.5 in what shapes as another tight, low-confidence contest.
Cairns Taipans +6.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Melbourne United
Saturday 8:30pm AEDT (Jan 3), MyState Bank Arena
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New Zealand Breakers vs Perth Wildcats
Sunday 2:30pm AEDT (Jan 4), Spark Arena
The New Zealand Breakers return home for this Round 15 clash looking to steady a season that has been marked by inconsistency. While their effort levels have generally been strong, execution late in games has been an issue, and they have struggled to turn competitive performances into sustained winning runs. At home, the Breakers have shown they can challenge quality opposition with their pace and physicality, but lapses on the defensive end and stretches of scoring droughts have often left them vulnerable, particularly against experienced sides that manage momentum well.
The Perth Wildcats arrive in a stronger position and shape as a team that knows how to win these types of matchups. Perth’s structure, depth, and ability to control tempo have been key features of their season, allowing them to respond well after losses and close out tight games. They tend to defend with greater consistency across four quarters and are comfortable grinding out results on the road. If the Wildcats can limit transition opportunities and force the Breakers into half-court sets, they should have the edge. Expect Perth’s experience to tell, with the Wildcats favoured to come away with a valuable road win.
Perth Wildcats to Win
$1.85 (3 Units)
Brisbane Bullets vs Adelaide 36ers
Sunday 4:30pm AEDT (Jan 4), Brisbane Entertainment Centre
The Brisbane Bullets host the Adelaide 36ers in Round 15 in a matchup that shapes as a slower, more physical contest than the market suggests. Brisbane have struggled to generate consistent offence this season, often finding it difficult to maintain scoring runs across four quarters. While their effort has generally been there, poor shooting stretches and turnovers have repeatedly limited their ability to push games into higher totals.
Adelaide arrive as a more settled and disciplined side, particularly on the defensive end. They have shown an ability to control tempo, defend the paint effectively, and force opponents into tough half-court possessions. Rather than engaging in fast-paced shootouts, the 36ers have been comfortable winning games by managing clock and limiting easy looks.
With Brisbane’s offensive issues and Adelaide’s preference for structured, defence-first basketball, this game profiles as a grind. Expect extended possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and scoring to come at a premium, making the under 174.5 total points the preferred angle.
Under 174.5 Points
$1.95 (1 Unit)
Sydney Kings vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Monday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 5), Qudos Bank Arena
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