We’re certainly into the business end of the NBL26 season now, which means all regular season games have that little bit of extra meaning. There’s still a logjam for spots in the top four and the top six, although a few games in Round 16 will help do some sorting out. We bring you our previews and best bets for all upcoming games for this round below!
NBL26 Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne United vs Cairns Taipans
Wednesday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 7), Red Energy Arena
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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 8), State Basketball Centre
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New Zealand Breakers vs Sydney Kings
Friday 5:30pm AEDT (Jan 9), Spark Arena
The first game of Friday night’s NBL26 Round 16 double header sees the New Zealand Breakers host the Sydney Kings in a matchup that shapes as an important one for both sides. The Breakers come in sitting 8th on the ladder at 8-14 and are under pressure to arrest a slide that has seen them lose four of their last five games. Consistency has been a major issue, with their defence struggling to hold up for long stretches and their offence often forced to chase games from behind. With the season entering a critical phase, this looms as another tough assignment against a proven opponent.
Sydney arrive in 4th place at 13-9 and, despite losing their last two games, remain in a far stronger position overall. Those defeats came against the top two teams on the ladder and were both competitive efforts, suggesting their form is still solid. The Kings have already won two of the three meetings between these sides this season and have generally looked more composed at both ends of the floor.
On paper, Sydney are clearly the stronger team and, given their body of work across the season, they look excellent value to get the job done here.
Sydney Kings to Win
$1.82 (2.5 Units)
Adelaide 36ers vs Tasmania JackJumpers
Friday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 9), Adelaide Entertainment Centre
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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats
Saturday 8:00pm AEDT (Jan 10), State Basketball Centre
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Illawarra Hawks New Zealand Breakers
Sunday 2:30pm AEDT (Jan 11), WIN Entertainment Centre
The Illawarra Hawks return home knowing the margin for error is slim as they sit 7th at 8–14, four wins adrift of the JackJumpers in the final playoff spot. They pushed South East Melbourne all the way in their last outing but were left frustrated after a tough overtime loss, another example of a season defined by missed opportunities. Illawarra’s effort and defensive intent has generally been solid, but scoring droughts at key moments have consistently hurt their ability to close games.
The New Zealand Breakers arrive in Wollongong in an equally difficult position. Eighth at 8–15, they are coming off an embarrassing 41-point loss at home to the Kings, a result that highlighted their ongoing offensive struggles. Consistency at the offensive end has been hard to find all season, and confidence will be fragile after such a heavy defeat.
Neither side has established a reliable offensive rhythm in NBL26, and when they last met the total score reached just 162 points. On form, this matchup shapes as another low-scoring affair that should stay under the 182.5 points line.
Under 182.5 Points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Sydney Kings vs Melbourne United
Sunday 4:30pm AEDT (Jan 11), Qudos Bank Arena
A heavyweight matchup awaits in Sydney as the Kings host Melbourne United in a clash with major ladder implications. Sydney sit 4th at 14–9, just behind United in 3rd at 15–9, but momentum strongly favours the home side. The Kings are one of the form teams of NBL26, winning seven of their past nine games as their defence and late-game execution continue to sharpen at the right time of the season.
Melbourne’s campaign has taken a very different trajectory. After a perfect 9–0 start, United have struggled to maintain consistency and have dropped nine of their last 15 games. Injuries and fluctuating line-ups have disrupted their rhythm, particularly at the offensive end, and confidence has been harder to come by during this stretch.
Recent history also leans Sydney’s way. The Kings have won the last two meetings between these sides and generally look more settled when playing at home. With form, confidence, and home-court advantage on their side, Sydney appear well placed to hold the upper hand again in this crucial encounter.
Sydney Kings -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Cairns Taipans vs Brisbane Bullets
Monday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 12), Cairns Convention Centre
The last game of Round 16 sees the Cairns Taipans host the Brisbane Bullets in a matchup between the competition’s two bottom sides. Cairns sit second last at 6–17 and finally showed some fight last time out, edging Melbourne United by a single point to snap a four-game losing streak. That result at least injected some belief into a season that has largely unravelled, although consistency has remained a major issue for the Taipans all year.
Brisbane arrive rooted to the bottom of the ladder at 6–18 and in even worse recent form, having dropped their past four games. While effort hasn’t always been lacking, results certainly have, and defensive lapses have often undone them. The Bullets did dominate the most recent meeting between these sides, winning by 28 points, but with the season series now locked at 1–1, it underlines how unpredictable this matchup can be.
With both teams effectively out of contention, this shapes as a dead rubber and a genuine coin toss. At odds of $2.67, the Bullets represent solid value.
Brisbane Bullets to Win
$2.67 (1 Unit)
