What a cracking sandwich game on NRL Super Saturday, as the table topping Storm head across the ditch to take on the suddenly hot Warriors in front of a packed Go Media Stadium in Auckland. The Warriors currently hold the longest winning streak in the competition (3) and are sitting just a point out of the top 8, whilst the Storm look to maintain their hold at the top. Should be a great game of football, and we have a full betting preview below!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Melbourne Storm
Go Media Stadium, Saturday 15th June, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Warriors were terrific last week, spanking the dangerous Cowboys in Townsville 42-12. With three straight wins coinciding with the loss of their star halfback Shaun Johnson, it’s crazy to say that some might believe this team is better without SJ. Te Maire Martin has been sensational in the 7 jersey for the Wahs, last week laying on four try assists, three line-break assists, whilst jagging a line-break of his own. He reverts to the 6 jersey this week and will more than likely take a back seat to Johnson. It was a dominant victory for the Warriors, running for close to 600 metres more than the Cowboys, making 7 line-breaks to two, completing at 84% and missing just 21 tackles.
The Storm also managed a win last week, albeit in less convincing fashion, sneaking past the Knights 36-28 at home. The Storm took control of the game in the second half, scoring three tries in 13 minutes to lead 34-16. The Knights scored a couple of times to keep it tight, but the Storm managed to get home. The stats across the board were similar between the sides, with Tyran Wishart leading the Storm whilst having his breakout game with two tries, a line-break, try assist and line-break assist. The Storm have now conceded 20+ points in five of their past six games, and this side of the ball needs improvement.
Match Preview
These teams met back in round 2, where the Storm closed 6.5-point home favourites and won the game 30-26. It marked the 15th straight victory for the Storm over the Warriors, a streak that is quite extraordinary even considering how dominant the Storm have been over the past two decades. It was a tight back-and-forth battle, with the Storm leading 18-6 at halftime, before the Warriors put on 20-straight points to lead 26-18 with just three minutes remaining. Two late converted tries got the Storm home, but it was far from convincing.
As for this week, the Storm opened 1.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s games, before re-opening as 0.5-point favourites on Monday. The game is now a pick em’, with the Warriors likely closing as small favourites unless there is any big injury news late. I make the game a pick em’, and therefore have no number value on the spread in this game.
The total opened a standard 44.5 and has been bet up aggressively, with the number currently sitting at a juiced 45.5, so likely to close 46.5-47.5, pending weather. My fair total is 44.5, however given the Storm’s recent struggles defensively, and the Warriors’ improved attack, I can get around the total going up.
So, not a great deal of value in the two main markets in this one, with a lean towards the Warriors being the nearest thing I can come to making a bet. This is despite the 15-match winning streak for the Storm, which I take something from, but far less than most others would.
My wager this week then will be for this game to remain tight, with either team to win by 1-8 or 1-10 appealing. Given my low staking at this time of the season (Origin), I’ll make the official play the bigger paying one, but if you want to be a little more conservative, the 1-10 either way margin offers good value too.
Either team to win by (1-8 points)
$2.15 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
S Faalogo (1+ try) – Melbourne Storm fullbacks have terrorised this Warriors team for years, scoring 7 tries in the past 4 matchups, and at least one in every game. Faalogo only has one try this year and is due.
M Montoya (1+ try) – Montoya is also due and is a decent price to jag his first try since round 11. The Storm right edge has conceded 44% of all tries this season.
Warriors ML – As above, I lean the Warriors and can use this to cheer them on to victory.
SGM Odds: $13.60 at Neds
