Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Coolmore Classic Day at Rosehill on Saturday, March 17th.
We have a nine-race card on a track that’s currently rated a Soft 5. That could improve to a Good 4 come raceday but I suspect we will start in the Soft range. The rail is in the True position.
If you haven’t already, make sure you listen to Episode 26 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim previews the action from Rosehill and Flemington. He’s also joined by very special guest Zac Purton, who rides the favourite in Sunday’s G1 Hong Kong Derby! A must listen!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 #7 Egg Tart
Next Best Bet: Race 2 #2 Libran
Best Value: Race 6 #4 Calculated
RACE 1
Ugly race to start off. Very tentatively putting (5) Zourkhan on top. He’s been close up all preparation and he once again loomed up like he was going to fight out the finish last start. That was in a strong race and the winner has since come out and won again for the fourth time straight. He should appreciate the soft ground much better than the firm ground today, and if Shinn can give him a decent run from gate 8, he could win this at $5. (8) Tamarack finds the perfect spot from barrier 4 and can continue its good form of recent starts. (9) All Too Soon has won her past three starts but takes on the boys today and steps up in grade. From barrier 10 she may position awkwardly and so I’ll take her on at the current $3.40. (1) Quick Defence is flying and shouldn’t be ruled out of this at double figure odds.
TIP: (5) Zourkhan EW
RACE 2
Very keen on (2) Libran here. He ran well enough first up behind Winx, has got a good record at this distance with four wins from seven starts, and a good record second up with three wins from five starts. He did this exact same thing last preparation, when running first up behind Winx over 1600m before winning very easily second up over 2000m. Probably prefers it firm as opposed to soft ground, but so long as it isn’t heavy, he should be very hard to beat here. Very keen on the $3.80. (5) Auvray is going okay and comes into this third up from a spell and up to a distance which should see him capable of featuring. You could make a case for (6) Stampede but I’d rather be backing Libran, and (9) Salsamor isn’t hopeless.
TIP: (2) Libran / (5) Auvray EW
RACE 3
Not much to say here. Given (1) Sunlight is favourite for the Golden Slipper you’d think she should be winning this. The form from her last start win over Estijaab has already been franked and she should be taking care of these. (10) Cristobal won on debut and can run a placing. Expect (8) Sweet Ava to go forward today which should bring about improvement.
TIP: (1) Sunlight
RACE 4
I’ve got Blue Diamond winner (1) Written By on top here but I don’t think it’s so clear cut as it might seem. He was ultra-impressive in the Diamond but I actually think this is a harder race for a few reasons. It’s his first start in Sydney, first time going to opposite direction, and the track likely won’t suit frontrunners as much as Caulfield did. With all that said, he’s a very smart colt and deserves to be favourite. Certainly don’t want to be against him. (5) Spin ran 2nd to Santos first up and gets the blinkers applied for the first time here. Draws well in barrier 2 and it wouldn’t shock to see him win. (3) Sandbar was never fully clear in that same race behind Santos and Spin. Was only beaten 1.4L at the end, draws well again here and probably shouldn’t be as big a price as it is. (6) Zousain is another that comes out of that race, beaten 0.6L. Undoubtedly will go back from barrier 10 but isn’t without claims, while (11) Virtual Insanity was luckless on debut behind Nomothaj at Flemington and should appreciate the 1200m today.
TIP: (1) Written By
RACE 5
I don’t really like the horse but (2) Nieta gets in very well under the conditions of this race given she was racing fairly well against the likes of Redzel last preparation. She’ll find this competition much easier than what she was up against fresh last campaign and with a good trial under her belt she should be hard to beat here. Good first up record with three wins from four starts first up and has finished top two in both starts over this track and distance. (5) Hieroglyphics isn’t sacked yet. She ran well first up and was held up without clear running for the majority of the straight last start. Third up last preparation she ran 2nd by a nose in Group 3 company to she’s capable. Draws well here and could be the value at $11. (8) Secret Trail went close in a Magic Millions race at the Gold Coast last start and shouldn’t be 20/1. (9) Gibraltor Girl is from the same stable and didn’t have the clearest path in the straight last start so she’s not without a chance, while (12) Sprightly Lass has obvious claims given she’s won four of her five races. She returned with a dominant display at Moonee Valley first up but this is harder and she’s probably up against it at the weights compared to the likes of Nieta.
TIP: (2) Nieta / (5) Hieroglyphics EW
RACE 6
There’s absolutely no knock on her form but I’ll be taking on (8) Shumookh here at the price. I think $2.70 is short enough given she takes on the boys today and is having the fifth start of her first preparation. I’m fairly keen to have a decent each way bet on (4) Calculated at $9. The stable has always had a big opinion of this horse and he was pretty unlucky not to go close in the Magic Millions race at the Gold Coast last start. He’s had a short break leading into this but he’ll hold fitness given it wasn’t a long break, and first up at 1500m suggests to me he’s fit enough to go here. Draws well and I expect him to go close. IF (10) Unforgotten takes her place, expect to see sharp improvement on what we saw first up when she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. She trialled on Thursday, so I doubt she will take her place, but if she does, I’ll be in her corner at $13. (7) Paret has the ability to pop up in a race like this at $23. One of these days he’ll win at a good price like he is today, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this was it. (6) Octobello looks over the odds at $41, while (1) Holy Snow and (2) Muraaqeb both come out of the Australian Guineas and can be competitive.
TIP: (4) Calculated EW / (10) Unforgotten EW
RACE 7
What a great race and what a juicy betting race! Recent history suggests it’s advantageous to be well drawn, weighted between 53kg-55kg and be 4YO, 5YO or 6YO. I’ve already declared on Twitter throughout the week that I’d be pressing the ‘unload’ button on (7) Egg Tart here at $7 and it’s no surprise that she’s already into $5.50. I think she’ll start closer to $4.50. Her return to the track first up was outstanding and she really should have gone close to winning that race but was held up badly in the straight. That showed me that she’s back to her best and the 1500m second up here is ideal. The wetter the track, the better for her, so with a track likely to be somewhere around a Soft 5, it really plays into the hands of this mare. Draws well, gun jockey, and recent ticks all the boxes in my opinion. Very keen and have already had a good each way bet. I think there’s a couple at big odds here that represent terrific value. (9) Aide Memoire should have gone close to winning last start but was held up badly the entire straight. I was keen on her that day at 50/1 and I’m keen on her here at 30/1. Her record on wet ground is terrific and her record third up from a spell is five starts for four wins! Draws well and weighted right at 54kg. (4) Heavens Above is also a big price at $21. She was good first up and her second up record suggests she improves out of sight here. She’s finished top two in four of her five starts second up and she’s finished top two in all three starts at this track and distance. (5) Prompt Response is also double figure odds and deserves to be seriously considered. (1) Dixie Blossoms, (2) Silent Sedition and (3) Daysee Doom have claims but the history suggests in recent years it’s hard to carry that sort of weight and win this. (8) Alizee should be suited up to 1500m third up – she was possibly a bit flat last start but she was dominant when she got to this sort of trip at this stage of last campaign so I wouldn’t be ruling her out. 3YO’s don’t have a good record in recent years though. Backed Egg Tart heavily, also something on Aide Memoire and Heavens Above.
TIP: (7) Egg Tart / (9) Aide Memoire EW / (4) Heavens Above EW
RACE 8
Some good horses involved here but it’s hard to be confident with five Chris Waller runners in the 10-horse field. (2) Tom Melbourne has every conceivable hope of breaking his bridesmaid tag here. The race really does set up well for him; he’s drawn well in barrier 4, has a good first up record and is a legitimate Group 1 horse on his day. But he hasn’t won for a long time so I can’t have him top pick here. (3) Comin’ Through has a run under his belt and will appreciate the drop to 56kg second up here. He was good enough first up and should be around the mark. (8) Life Less Ordinary could be the value with Kerrin McEvoy taking the ride at 53kg for Waller. This horse always runs well first up – he’s finished top two in four of his five starts when fresh, so despite this being short of his best distance, he’s a legitimate chance at double figure odds. (5) Interlocuter is a horse I really like but he wasn’t very good first up and has the synthetic hoof filler in which is a big query. If he was to recapture his form from last prep he’d win this. (1) Prized Icon ran 2nd to Winx last start but was entitled to given the field behind him.
TIP: (3) Comin’ Through / (8) Life Less Ordinary EW
RACE 9
Competitive way to finish the card. (5) Up ‘N’ Rolling went forward in a surprise last week and led everywhere bar the winning post in the straight, with the original leader kicking back to win. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him ridden much quieter from the gate today, but his second up record is good and provided he’s not flat from that big effort first up, he should be somewhere in the finish at $5. (9) Philosophy is a horse I like and he resumes from a spell here. He’s got a great first up record and if he’s forward enough first up he’ll be very competitive. (10) Eagle Bay looks a very big price at $19. He’s won four of his last five starts over in New Zealand and was beaten 0.5L in the one he lost. He’s on his Australian debut here for Chris Waller and has been gelded since the last time we saw him. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride and he draws barrier 1 so I think he’s a huge price to win here. (10) Generalissimo, (14) Lovani and (8) Tribal Wisdom others with claims.
TIP: (5) Up ‘N’ Rolling / (9) Philosophy EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10
1, 4, 5, 7, 9
2, 3, 5, 8
5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14
$100 = 14%
