The not so NRL Super Saturday continues at 5:30pm AEST at CommBank Stadium, with the Tigers heading to Parramatta to take on the Panthers. Despite the disparity in the two teams on deck, this is likely the game of the day, with the Panthers and Tigers being inextricably linked since the Panthers poached Ivan Cleary back in 2019. There will be plenty of feeling in this game, so let’s dig in and find some betting value.
Panthers vs Tigers Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 21
Edwards Peaking has the Panthers Primed for Premiership Push
The Panthers continued their push up the ladder last weekend, with their sixth straight win pushing them into 6th spot. Despite the fact they were only playing the lowly Rabbitohs, it was an important two points for the Panthers, as they allowed both Isaiah Yeo and Nathan Cleary to be rested. It was still an expected result, with the Rabbitohs currently playing like the worst team in the competition, and Latrell Mitchell out for the Bunnies. The stats during the game were remarkably similar, with one notable exception being the 12 errors from the Panthers, to just four from the Bunnies. It didn’t matter, as the Panthers proved far more clinical in the redzone, securing the 30-10, five tries to two victory. Dylan Edwards was absolutely brilliant as he deputised as the skipper, running for over 300 metres, scoring two tries, setting up another, and busting 11 tackles. The 2022 Clive Churchill medal winner appears to be rounding into form at the exact right time for the Panthers, and they look a real smoky this season to win their fifth straight Premiership.
Terrell May Just be the Buy of the Year
The Tigers come in off the back of an emotional win last weekend at Leichhardt Oval, as they snuck by the Titans 21-20. It pushed the Tigers into 12th place on the ladder, and crucially for Head Coach, players, and fans alike, 4 points clear of the Titans in 17th place. The Tigers now have some real breathing room from the wooden spoon, which would be their fourth straight, and the players can now play with a little more freedom and less pressure. Last week saw Taylan May make his first-grade debut for his new club, and he stamped his authority early, scoring a try in the 13th minute, going on to set up another two, as well as creating three-line breaks. If Taylan was good, brother Terrell was great, as he ran for 158 metres, made 40 tackles, set up a try and two-line breaks, and popped 5 offloads in an 80-minute performance in the middle. If he isn’t the buy of the year, he must be close. And despite plenty of criticism during the week, Jarome Luai was brilliant, running for 127 metres, kicking well in general play, and making the line break that ultimately put them in position to slot the winning field goal. Luai will be primed for a big game this week against his former teammates.
Panthers vs Tigers Recent History
Despite the Panthers holding a terrific head-to-head record over the Tigers since 2020, the matchups have generally been tight, save for the pair of matchups in 2021, where both teams won their home games comfortably. The past four games have been extremely tight, with margins of 2, 4, 16 and 4 points, with the 16-point margin also being tight, as the Panthers led 10-6 with 17 minutes remaining.
The pair met earlier in the season, at this venue, with the Panthers closing 11.5-point road favourites, with a total of 46.5 in round 14. With both teams close to full strength, it was another tight battle, with the Tigers leading 10-6 with a minute to go before half time. A Tom Jenkins try on the stroke of half time put the Panthers ahead, and they never surrendered the lead, going on to win 18-14. Speaking of Jenkins, he was an absolute handful for the Tigers, running for 253 metres, scoring a hat trick, busting 12 tackles and breaking the line an astonishing five times. The Tigers will have to be cautious this week, as they can’t afford Jenkins to do this again. Apart from Jenkins, the stats were remarkably similar, and if the Tigers have anything left in the tank, they could well push the Panthers deep again this weekend.
Arm Wrestle Expected in Tense Affair
The Panthers were listed as 13.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening at 12.5. Panthers money has hit the market, and it looks like the number may get up to 14.5 before kick-off. I make the spread 13.5, and as such don’t see a tonne of value in the spread from a numbers standpoint. I would lean towards the Tigers; however, they have shown lately that they can collapse late, and therefore it’s not a bet. The Tigers have been good at covering when underdogs, covering 8 of their 12 games, whilst the Panthers have struggled as favourites, covering just five of 13.
The total opened 47.5 and has been bet down to 46.5 at most books. This isn’t a huge move down, although I do agree it should be lower, with my fair total sitting at 43. Although I don’t take a lot from historical matchups, it’s hard to ignore the fact that no Panthers vs Tigers game has gone over 46.5 points since the 2016 season. The teams notoriously play arm wrestle type matchups against one another, with this being even more pronounced over the past few seasons. The Panthers have played 11 of 17 games under the total this season, whilst the Tigers are 10 from 18 games. I see an edge in the number, and an edge in the game script for this under, and it will be my best bet for this matchup.
If you’re looking for another bet, I do like the Tigers team total to go under, which currently sits around 15.5. If you can find a 16.5, I’d recommend this as a nice wager, with the Panthers’ defence quietly getting back to the pinnacle in the NRL, after being horrible at the start of the season.
Under 46.5 points
$1.91 (2 Units)
Panthers vs Tigers Player Prop Bet: May Shows Panthers Made Mistake
Our Best Prop Bet: May 1+ Try
May has been in terrific try scoring form for the Tigers since signing, scoring three two weeks ago in reserve grade, only to score one on his first-grade debut last week. May will be desperate to score against his old team, who sacked him after he was charged with domestic violence charges last season.
Taylan May (1+ try)
$3.45
Same Game Multi: Panthers vs Tigers
Leg 1: Under 47.5 points – As above, love the under here.
Leg 2: T May (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: L Garner (1+ try) – Back on the left edge with Sorensen out, love the Garner anytime try here. Probably the best hole runner on the Panthers’ roster, Garner will be attacking the weak right edge of the Tigers defence. Also, the revenge factor is apparent here for the ex-Tiger.
Panthers vs Tigers vs Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 26th July
Location: CommBank Stadium - Parramatta
Weather: Fine, 16 degrees
Odds: Panthers ($1.26) vs Tigers ($3.90)
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