NRL Super Saturday continues at 5:30pm AEST in Brisbane, with the 6th instalment of the Brisbane derby, as the Broncos host the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium. With both teams dealing with some horrible injuries, which team can get the much-needed win with only a month left in the regular season? Whatever the result, there should be plenty of feeling in this one.
Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
Broncos vs Dolphins Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 24
Can the Broncos Replace Injured Stars, or is Their Season Over?
Wow, what a horrible week for the Broncos round 23 proved to be, as they not only lost to the Storm 22-2, but they also lost three players to hamstring injuries in the same game! To add insult to injury, two of those players were their halves, Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds, in a week that will no doubt be looked back on by Broncos players and fans alike as the week their season likely ended.
It's been a rocky three weeks for the Broncos since their last bye in round 20, losing to the Eels at home before annihilating the Rabbitohs, before the horror show that was round 23. Now sitting 6th and three points behind the Panthers in 4th, their focus is surely shifting down on the ladder, as they sit just two points clear of 9th placed Roosters, and four clear of the Sea Eagles in 10th.
In a game hard to find positives, the Broncos welcomed back Payne Haas who made 46 tackles, ran for 151 metres, popped five offloads and broke three tackles, in a far more Haas-like performance than we have seen for some time.
Is the Dolphins Historic Season Coming to an End?
The Dolphins have had such a good season, but what we saw last week has to be concerning for all involved. After losing Herbie Farnworth the previous round, it was easy to forgive the Dolphins for a slight down week last week as they hosted the Roosters, but no one could have saw what was coming. An absolutely horrible opening 40 minutes saw the Dolphins trailing 36-6 at the break, and it didn’t get any better. The Roosters piled on the points early in the second half, scoring two tries inside 7 minutes to extend their lead to 48-6, before running out massive 64-12 winners. It was a loss that was almost certainly the death knell on the Dolphins’ season, and now they have to pray just to sneak into the 8 from here.
There weren’t many highlights for the Dolphins, however one positive coming out of the game was the solid play of rookie centre Tevita Naufahu, who ran for 158 metres and scored two tries for the Dolphins. Elsewhere, not a lot to get excited about for the Dolphins from the loss last week.
Broncos vs Dolphins Recent History
Big Brother has had the upper hand in the early days of this rivalry, winning four of five against the Dolphins since they entered the competition in 2023. In a rather odd stat though, the cumulative points differential in those five games is just +2 for the Broncos, after the Dolphins massive 40-6 win in round 26 last season.
The teams met back in round 4 this season at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos closing 11.5-point “road” favourites, with a total of 48.5. With both teams close to full strength, it was a tight contest, with the Dolphins enjoying the better game statistically. However, it didn’t matter, as the Broncos’ defence stifled the Dolphins attack for the most part, running out 20-12 winners. Gehamat Shibasaki was great for the Broncos, running for 188 metres, scoring two tries, breaking the line twice, and busting 9 tackles, whilst Herbie Farnworth was up to his usual tricks, running for 204 metres and busting 11 tackles. He will be a massive loss this week for the Dolphins.
Expect a Tight One in the Battle of Brisbane
The Broncos were slated as 2.5-point favourites at open, with that number not moving so far through the week. It kind of feels like the market isn’t quite sure what the make of either team, with the Broncos losing three starters last week, and the Dolphins obliterated by the Roosters. My number is pretty close to this, however as mentioned it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what this Broncos team will look like without Cobbo, Mam, and Reynolds. Whilst they’ve been able to replace Reynolds (Hunt) and Cobbo (Karapani) with solid replacements, Billy Walters is a big downgrade at five eighth over Ezra Mam. I would lean towards the Dolphins here on the spread, but without a great deal of confidence.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 48.5 and has been bet up to 49.5. If both teams were full strength, this would be a definite over bet, however with the losses in attack to both teams, I can’t bet on the total here. Both teams have leant to the under this season, with both playing more unders than overs. I’ll steer clear.
So, with plenty on the line here, I look towards this being a tight game of football. There is plenty on the line for both teams in this clash, and as such I can’t see the Dolphins rolling over like they did last week. Likewise, the Broncos will be desperate to keep touch with the top 4, but without their halves may struggle to kick into top gear. I’d lean towards the Broncos getting this done, but this game being tight is where I’m looking. We will take this game to finish with a margin of 10 or less points at near enough even money.
Either team to win by less than 10.5 points
$1.94 (1.5 Units)
Broncos vs Dolphins Player Prop Bet: Mariner to Maintain Momentum
Our Best Prop Bet: Mariner 1+ Try
Deine Mariner has been in fantastic form since winning the right wing spot at the Broncos, and at just about even odds here, I’ll back him in. The Dolphins’ left edge is their weakest defensively, and even more so now with Herbie Farnworth out. Back him in here.
Deine Mariner (1+ try)
$1.91
Same Game Multi: Broncos vs Dolphins
Leg 1: Broncos ML – I just think they get it done here. When the game gets tight, big brother will take over and get the win.
Leg 2: D Mariner (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: J Isaako (1+ try) – We backed Isaako last week, but it wasn’t a good week for the Dolphins. We will take him again this week, against the weaker Broncos’ left edge.
SGM Odds: $6.25 at Dabble
Broncos vs Dolphins Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 16th August
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 21 degrees
Odds: Broncos ($1.68) vs Dolphins ($2.20)
Line: Broncos (-3.5)
Points: 48.5
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