With the top 8 in the NRL is taking shape, this matchup is pivotal for both teams on Sunday afternoon. The Sharks will host the Cowboys, in an absolute must-win for the Cowboys who currently occupy 11th place on the ladder, 7 points out of the top 8. The Sharks meanwhile will also be desperate, with a loss this weekend potentially pushing them outside the 8. Plenty on the line then, in what should be a great matchup.
Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
Sharks vs Cowboys Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 22
Sharks Looking for Their Fourth Straight
Despite the Sharks’ form being a little up and down over the past three weeks, they have still managed to go 3-0, pushing them back into the race for the top 4. With a loss on Friday night for the Warriors, the Sharks are now within two points of the top 4 if they can get the win this week, and with a terrific draw over the closing rounds, don’t sleep on the Sharks as a top 4 threat.
Looking back on last week, the Sharks took on a poor Rabbitohs’ team in Gosford, where they were heavy favourites. In a poorly officiated game, the Sharks managed to sneak home 14-12, with the help of some ordinary refereeing throughout the contest. Will Kennedy was one of the best for the Sharks, running for 247 metres, breaking the line once, setting up two tries, and assisting in a line break. But there weren’t a lot of bright spots for the Sharks, who need to bounce back this week against a poor Cowboys’ defence.
Can Dearden Drag the Cowboys Back Towards the Top 8
The Cowboys managed to get the two points last week, sneaking past the Dragons at home, 38-32. It was a tight battle through the opening half an hour, with both teams managing to score two tries to have the scores tied at 12. But three tries in six minutes right before half time had the Cowboys looking home, as they led 28-12 at the break. The Dragons did the exact same thing to bounce back in the second half, starting in the 55th minute, scoring three unanswered tries in under 10 minutes to bridge the gap to 2. Two more quick Cowboys tries had them come home strong, however as usual, their defence was deeply troubling.
Once again Tom Dearden was outstanding, scoring two tries, breaking the line twice, setting up a try, running for 181 metres and making a remarkable 37 tackles. He really has grown since the Origin series and is closing in on the top 3 halfbacks in the game, if he isn’t already there.
Sharks vs Cowboys Recent History
The Sharks have a terrific recent record over the Cowboys, winning 13 of the past 15 matchups between the teams. There have been quite a few big matchups between the teams, including finals games, and plenty of excitement during these games.
The last time these teams met was back in round 2 in Townsville, where the Sharks closed massive 9.5-point road favourites, with a total of 50.5. It was a game that was completely dominated by the road team, with the Sharks running in seven tries to two to win 36-12. The Sharks ran for close to 500 metres more than the Cowboys, whilst breaking the line 10 times to two, with the edges of the Cowboys being an absolute shambles throughout the game. The Sharks wingers combined for 458 metres, six-line breaks, and three tries, whilst Nicho Hynes was pulling the strings throughout. The Cowboys will need to somehow find their defence to have any shot at beating the Sharks at home this week.
Sharks to Continue Surge Towards Top 4
The Sharks opened 7.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening 8.5-point favourites. This was no surprise to me, as I make a fair spread Sharks -10.5 in this matchup and could easily get to a higher number. However, it has actually been Cowboys’ money that has slowly drifted into the market, with the Cowboys +8.5 now juiced. I highly doubt this will drop to 7.5, however with the horrible weather around Sydney this weekend, it is possible. Still, I believe the Sharks will be too strong in this contest, and if you can get a 7.5, this bet would be bigger.
Looking at the total, and it opened 48.5, and surprisingly it hasn’t moved all week. My fair for this is 48.5 on the dot, however if the market has bet into the Cowboys based off the weather, I’m surprised it hasn’t done the same with the total. I would lean towards the under, based purely off the weather, however with the history of these teams playing high scoring affairs, and zero number edge, I will leave the total alone.
So, I’ll back the Sharks in to cover the spread here. The Cowboys, like a few other clubs, appear to be teetering on the edge, and if the Sharks can jump out to an early lead, I don’t know that the Cowboys have it in them to stay in the contest. Far too much to play for here for the Sharks.
Sharks (-8.5)
$1.98 (2 Units)
Sharks vs Cowboys Player Prop Bet: Talakai the Tank
Our Best Prop Bet: Talakai 1+ Try
Despite being told his services will no longer be required next season, Siosifa Talakai is still the left centre for the Sharks this week. The Cowboys right edge has been horrible all year defensively, and in these conditions, it will be almost impossible to stop Talakai near the line.
Siosifa Talakai (1+ try)
$2.65 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi: Sharks vs Cowboys
Leg 1: Sharks -6.5 – See Best Bet.
Leg 2: S Talakai (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: J Purdue (1+ try) – Purdue has been great this season in the centres, and with his pace and elusiveness he will be every chance to score this week in the wet.
SGM Odds: $8.50 at Dabble
Sharks vs Cowboys Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 3rd August
Location: Sharks Stadium - Cronulla
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Showers, 17 degrees
Odds: Sharks ($1.40) vs Cowboys ($2.95)
Line: Sharks (-8.5)
Points: 48.5
Where to Watch Sharks vs Cowboys
Watch the Sharks vs Cowboys match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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