NRL Super Saturday continues at 5:30pm AEST in Wollongong, as the ladder leading Raiders head up the Hume Highway to take on the Dragons. With the Storm and Bulldogs breathing down their necks, the Raiders can’t afford to slip up here, but it won’t be easy against a Dragons team that has shown when at their best, they can match it with anyone.
Dragons vs Raiders Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 22
Dragons Tough Draw Proving Too Much
The Dragons come in off four straight losses, in what really has been a horror draw for the Dragons, who have faced the Raiders, Roosters, Bulldogs, and Cowboys over the last four weeks. It doesn’t get any easier, as they once again have to face the competition front runners, this time at home. Last week was the most disappointing of the losses, as they took on a Cowboys team that has been poor this season. The Cowboys gave the Dragons plenty of help, making 14 errors, giving away 10 penalties, and missing 34 tackles, but the Dragons couldn’t get it done, going down 38-32. They now sit 6 points out of the 8, and with a -64 points differential, they are essentially four wins out of the top 8. With only six rounds remaining, the Dragons season is essentially over. With news coming out of a mass exodus of players from the squad for next season, the Dragons appear to be a ticking time bomb, waiting to be blown off the park. Will it be this week?
Path Clear for a Raiders Minor Premiership
Conversely, the Raiders come into this contest sporting an NRL-leading nine game winning streak, and the easiest draw over the past few months of any team in the NRL. In fact, during the 9-game winning streak, the Raiders have only managed one top 8 win, beating the Warriors 16-10 all the way back in round 12. They haven’t met a top 8 team since, and unbelievably they may only face one more top 8 side before the end of the season. No wonder they are favourites to take out the Minor Premiership. Last week, the Raiders ran over the top of the Knights in the second half, managing four unanswered second half tries to run out 44-18 winners. It was a tight first half, with both teams able to move the ball effectively in the wet conditions, and with the scores locked at 18-apiece at half time, could have gone either way. But it was a dominant second half from the Raiders, where they flexed their premiership muscle. Matt Timoko was massive, running for 170 metres, breaking the line three times and scoring two tries, whilst the forward pack again dominated, with five players running for over 100 metres. Who can stop Ricky Stuart’s men?
Dragons vs Raiders Recent History
The Raiders have dominated the recent head-to-head with the Dragons, winning nine of the past 11 matchups between the teams. However, the margins haven’t been huge, with the average margin of victory over the past five games (all Raiders wins) having been just 4.8 points. These teams inevitably play tight matchups, and this game could be no different.
The teams last met just under a month ago at GIO Stadium in round 18, where the Raiders closed 12.5-point favourites, with a total of 48.5. The Raiders appeared the far superior team for the most part, leading 28-12 with just 15 minutes remaining. The Dragons came home strong though, scoring two quick tries to put them within four points with six minutes still on the clock. The Raiders held on, in what could prove a real sliding doors moment in the 2025 NRL season. A loss here could have been disastrous for the Raiders, given the lead at home, and holding on for this win could prove critical for the Minor Premiership.
Kaeo Weekes had the best game of his career in the round 18 clash, running for 346 metres, scoring three tries, breaking the line twice, creating four-line breaks, setting up a try, and busting 9 tackles. The Dragons will have to be weary of the electric Raiders’ fullback this week.
Dragons’ Season Over
The Raiders kicked off as 4.5-point favourites on the look ahead line, before re-opening a far safer 6.5. Further Raiders money has hit the market since Monday, pushing this out to 8.5, which is close to my number of 7.5. Whilst the eye test would certainly have me backing the Raiders, I’m a little scared off. Yes, my numbers suggest the Dragons to be the bet here, but the Raiders have shown the ability to kick into another gear lately, which makes the +8.5 a little scary to bet. So, for now, no bet on the spread of this game.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 46.5, with the total still at 46.5 at most books. However, unders money has started to come in, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this closed a little lower. My fair total for the game is 51, however with heavy rain expected, the lower total is easy enough to get to. The Raiders and Dragons are two of the more “overs” happy teams in the NRL, so I would not at all be surprised to see this fly over the total, however with the unpredictable weather I’m scared off a total bet.
So, where do we look? With the weather expected to have this game played in poor conditions, in my opinion it lends itself to being a tighter game, with less points being scored. Completion percentage will be crucial, with the Raiders being the third best team this season in terms of completion percentage, whilst also allowing the lowest completion percentage. They force errors, which could prove massive in this contest. Whilst the Dragons have been sensational this year at keeping teams close (only one loss by 13+), if they can’t keep a handle on the ball, this could get really ugly. With the Dragons’ season on life support, if the Raiders can get a lead, I believe they will do what they have shown they can do all season, and pile on the points. The Raiders by 13+ is the bet here, as I believe there is more value in it then betting the spread.
Raiders (13+)
$2.60 (1 Unit)
Dragons vs Raiders Player Prop Bet: Stuart Scores in the Slops
Our Best Prop Bet: Stuart 1+ Try
Jed Stuart has taken to first grade like a duck to water, and that may be what he resembles on Saturday evening with the amount of rain expected before, and during the game. Four tries in five games, attacking the weaker edge of the Dragons, plus money, all looks good to me.
Jed Stuart (1+ try)
$2.10
Same Game Multi: Dragons vs Raiders
Leg 1: Raiders (13+) – As above, see best bet.
Leg 2: J Stuart (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: K Flanagan (1+ try) – With the conditions set to be wet, sharp footwork could be invaluable close to the line. Expect Flanagan to have a crack if the Dragons get a few sets inside the Raiders’ red zone.
Dragons vs Raiders Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 2nd August
Location: WIN Stadium - Wollongong
Weather: Rain, 15 degrees
Odds: Dragons ($2.95) vs Raiders ($1.40)
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Where to Watch Dragons vs Raiders
Watch the Dragons vs Raiders match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Dragons vs Raiders Tips at Neds!
