Another Friday night, another Broncos home game. Yes, the team with the best schedule in the NRL get to host another minnow late in the season, as this week they welcome the South Sydney Rabbitohs to town. With the Bunnies currently occupying 17th and last on the ladder, and the Broncos reeling after an embarrassing loss last week, this could get ugly fast for Souths’ fans.
Broncos vs Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 22
Broncos Look to Bounce Back
The Broncos were embarrassed last Friday night, going down to the Eels at home 22-20. It was a concerning result for a team that had won their previous five games and were essentially at full strength, whilst the Eels were without two of their starting spine in Iongi and Brown. Statistically both teams put up very similar numbers, however the Eels were more clinical, scoring four tries to three to thoroughly deserve the road win. Payne Haas left the game late and was seen to be icing his ankle, however word out of Broncos’ camp is that he will be fine to play this week. Nevertheless, there was an air of complacency in the Broncos performance last week, and Head Coach Michael Maguire must ensure that his team is up for the game this week, especially given the likes of the Sharks, Dolphins and Sea Eagles are all breathing down their necks for the final three spots in the top 8.
Do the Rabbitohs Have Anything Left in the Tank?
The Rabbitohs season is well and truly over, but they showed some fight last week against a Sharks team that has been playing some terrific football. The Bunnies took their round 21 home game to Gosford, and appeared the better team through 40 minutes, leading 6-2 after a late Tyrone Munro try. The Sharks managed to sneak home, eventually winning 14-12, but the biggest talking point coming out of the game was the horrible refereeing. The Rabbitohs were hammered by Belinda Sharpe, conceding 10 penalties to 2, five repeat sets to one, and had a player (Jack Wighton) sin binned. Despite all this, they managed to stay in the contest, and showed resolve to hold the Sharks to just 14 points. Jye Gray was fabulous at the back for the Bunnies, setting up a try, creating two-line break assists, busting three tackles and running for 163 metres on 22 carries. He will continue at the back this week with Latrell Mitchell still out, and he must be close to fielding offers from rival teams, given how good he has been this season. Does the team have one more big game in them, or are they riding the downhill towards the off season?
Broncos vs Rabbitohs Recent History
The Rabbitohs have a solid recent record against the Broncos, winning the last two matchups. They also have decent history at the venue, winning three of the past six games against the Broncos since 2019. With Head Coach Wayne Bennett having that familiarity with Suncorp, it can only help the Bunnies in their build up to the clash.
The teams last met in round 10 this season at Accor Stadium, where the Broncos closed 10.5-point road favourites, with a total of 48.5 on a Friday night. The Rabbitohs were without Jack Wighton, whilst the Broncos were missing Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh. The Broncos got out to a quick lead, scoring 14 unanswered first half points to take a 14-0 lead into the break. The Rabbitohs came out firing in the second half, scoring two quick tries, before a Latrell Mitchell penalty goal in the 70th minute drew the scores level. Another penalty goal with two-minutes left put the Rabbitohs in front, before a last minute try to Mitchell sealed the come-from-behind win, 22-14.
Mitch Moses’ Return Won’t be Enough for Spluttering Eels’ Attack
The Broncos opened 12.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening at just 10.5-point favourites. This is no doubt off the back of a mediocre performance last week from the Broncos, however it didn’t take long for Broncos money to flood the market, with the number bet all the way up to 17.5 at the time of writing. This has gone above and beyond my fair spread of Broncos -15.5, and it shows punters have well and truly given up on the Rabbitohs this season. With the Broncos such a substantial number after a poor loss, I cannot consider anything here other than a bet on the Bunnies, however I don’t think I can get there on the spread.
The total opened a high 49.5, where it has remained all week. This is where I find value on the Friday night clash, as I believe this total is too high. My fair total is 44.5 and given the crazy amount of unders the Rabbitohs have played this season (84%), this seems like the smart bet for this matchup. With rain expected tomorrow in the Brisbane area, I really like the under here. Also, not only are the Bunnies the team with the most unders this season, but the Broncos have also been a heavy unders team, with their total points going under the closing total on 11 occasions this season in 18 games. Bet the under.
Under 49.5 total points
$1.91 (2 Units)
Broncos vs Rabbitohs Player Prop Bet: Mariner at the Double
Our Best Prop Bet: Mariner 2+ Tries
Deine Mariner has taken over on the left wing, with Josiah Karapani getting the axe. The left wing for the Broncos has been a terrific place this season and coming up against a poor Rabbitohs right edge defence, I love Mariner to get a double here.
Deine Mariner (2+ tries)
$4.00
Same Game Multi: Broncos vs Rabbitohs
Leg 1: Under 49.5 points – See best bet.
Leg 2: D Mariner (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: A Johnston (1+ try) – AJ at plus money is an easy bet. Don’t think about it, just throw it in the multi.
Broncos vs Rabbitohs Better Odds & Match Info
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Weather: Showers, 14 degrees
Odds: Broncos ($1.13) vs Rabbitohs ($6.20)
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Where to Watch Broncos vs Rabbitohs
Watch the Broncos vs Rabbitohs match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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