Sunday afternoon football begins at the Cattery as Geelong look to keep their spot in the top four when they take on the Saints. St Kilda have lost 8 of their last 9, but have beaten Geelong this season, can they cause another upset?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Cats vs Saints below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Geelong vs St Kilda Prediction & Tips: AFL 2025 Round 19
The Race to September
Another one of Geelong’s bogey teams got a hold of them, with the Cats losing their fourth game in a row against GWS, in a 26 point defeat last week. It means Geelong now sit inside the top 4 on percentage, and can’t afford to drop games if they're going to finish inside the top 4. Fortunately for Geelong they don’t play a single side above tenth place on the ladder in their final six games, so they should be primed to not only finish top four, but challenge for second place. The Cats will be desperate to bounce back to winning ways after losing two of their last three, and could seriously beat up on their opponents across the last six rounds of the season.
Tough Going
Expectations weren’t high for Ross Lyon’s side coming into season 2025 and the season has certainly panned out how most expected. The Saints sit 15th on the ladder with just five wins, and have lost eleven of their last thirteen games. St Kilda put in a solid showing last week and should have beaten the Swans, but ultimately capitulated in the final term, conceding four of the last five goals of the game. The Saints have struggled against the better sides in the competition, with a 2-9 record against the current top 9 teams on the ladder. The concerning element is their inability to be competitive, with those nine losses coming by an average margin of 40 points.
The Stats That Matter
Expectedly for a Ross Lyon coached side, scoring has been an issue, with the Saints ranking 13th for points scored (79 points per game) and only scoring above 100 points once. What has been a change is the Saints inability to defend, as they ran 15th for points conceded (92 points per game), with the Saints conceded scores of 100+ points on seven occasions.
Geelong have had no such issues scoring, ranking second in the competition with 99 points per game. The Cats rank 2nd for scores from stoppage, 2nd for scores from forward half, 3rd for scores from turnover, 4th for scores from defensive half and 5th for scores from centre bounce. In comparison, St Kilda don’t rank in the top seven in the league for any score source or score origin.
A big aspect of Geelong’s success this season has come from the balance of control and chaos. The Cats rank 2nd in the competition for marks and kicks per game, but they also rank 1st for pressure acts, 2nd for tackles, 4th for ground ball gets and 6th for forward 50 ground ball gets. They’ve got different gears they can go to during games, which makes them so dangerous.
Cats or Saints? Here’s our Geelong vs St Kilda Tip
Although the Saints have given Geelong some trouble in recent times, winning three of their last four games against Geelong, playing at Kardina Park presents a much more daunting task. Geelong have won 11 games in a row against the Saints at GMHBA Stadium, with the Saints last win at the Cattery coming 26 years ago.
Geelong have feasted against the bottom 10 this season, with a 6-2 record with their six wins coming by an average margin of 56 points. Geelong have kicked over 100 points in six of their last nine games, which looms as a frightful sight for a St Kilda outfit that has struggled to defend. Geelong's last four wins have come by an average margin of 58 points, and they will be far too strong for St Kilda.
Geelong -33.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Geelong vs St Kilda Prop Bet: Superstar Saint
Our Best Prop Bet: NWM 30+ Disposals
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has catapulted himself into the conversation as one of the best players in the competition, with a stunning season to date. Wanganeen-Milera is averaging 29.5 disposals per game across the entire season and is averaging 31 disposals per game across his last 11 games. Wanganeen-Milera was held to 24 disposals last week against the Swans and will be desperate to bounce back with a big performance.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 30+ Disposals
$2.10
Geelong vs St Kilda Same Game Multi
Bailey Smith 25+ Disposals: After being a late out in Round 17, Bailey Smith returned against the Giants and kept his perfect streak of 25+ disposal games intact. Smith has reached the 25+ disposal mark in 13 out of his 13 games this season, and is leading the league for disposals per game (31.6).
Max Holmes 25+ Disposals: Max Holmes has formed an excellent duo with Smith, averaging 26 disposals per game in 2025. Despite being held to 17 disposals last week, Holmes has averaged 30 disposals per game across his last 5 games.
Shannon Neale 2+ Goals: Shannon Neale has been in great form over the last month, with returns of 5, 3, 1 and 4 goals across his last four games. Neale has kicked 2+ goals in four of his last seven games, and kicked 2 against the Saints earlier this season.
Geelong vs St Kilda Betting Odds & Match Info
Weather: Partly cloudy, 12 degrees
Odds: Geelong ($1.14) vs St Kilda ($5)
Where to Watch Geelong vs St Kilda?
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