The Storm will look to bounce back after a shock loss at home to the Raiders last week, as they take on one of the most unpredictable sides in the competition, the Tigers on Sunday afternoon. With both teams currently inside the top 8, it should be a high-quality contest at AAMI Park. Let’s dig in.
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Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers
Location: AAMI Park – Melbourne
Date: Sunday, 11th May
Time: 2:00pm AEST
Odds: Storm ($1.20) vs Tigers ($4.60)
Line: Storm -15.5
Points: 51.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Storm looked like sneaking another one of their typical wins last week, as they led the Raiders on Sunday 18-12 with only two minutes remaining in the game last week. But a late try to Kaeo Weekes took the game to Golden Point, where Jamal Fogarty once again proved the hero, slotting a penalty goal after a dubious penalty to win the game for the Raiders. It continued an unflattering few weeks for the Storm without hooker Harry Grant, but he returns this week in a much-needed boost for the home side.
The Tigers, meanwhile, won their second straight game, after defeating the Dragons 34-28 in an absolute cracker on Saturday evening in Magic Round. Despite leading 26-10 after 50 minutes, the Tigers allowed the Dragons back into the game, conceding three tries to one over a 25-minute period, to bring on the grandstand finish. They held on, but there are still plenty of concerns for this team moving forward. They conceded a whopping 12-line breaks, missed 42 tackles, and made 11 errors. Need to be much better this week.
The Tigers haven’t beaten the Storm since 2018, when the Storm inexplicably lost two games in four weeks to the Tigers. Aside from that four-week period, it’s been an utterly dominant decade for the Storm against the Tigers, and they will look to continue it this week.
The teams last met in round 18 last season at Leichhardt Oval, with the Storm closing 11.5-point favourites on the road, with a total of 51.5. The Tigers tried their hardest, however couldn’t match it with the visitors, eventually going down 40-28. The Storm were missing both Harry Grant and Cam Munster though, making the loss a little harder to stomach.
This week, the Storm were listed as 14.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same number. Storm money did come in, driving this to 15.5 at some books, but it really hasn’t changed all that much. With Grant back, I make the Storm a 16.5-point favourite, which isn’t a massive jump from 14.5/15.5. I’d lean towards the Storm getting it done by a big margin, but I’ll leave it for now.
The total opened 51.5, and has been bet up slightly to 52.5. My fair total is 54.5, and with the addition of Grant, I do like the over here. Points are down this week, which leaves me a little hesitant, but I genuinely believe the Tigers can match it with the Storm to a point, which will make the Storm have to score 34+ in this one. Both teams are solid defensively, but on a dry, sunny afternoon in Melbourne, I’ll take the over.
Over 51.5 points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Storm (13+) – Storm will have too much class with the return of Grant. This is one of those games the Tigers can afford to lose in their quest for the top 8, with a huge game next week against the Rabbitohs.
Leg 2: C Staines (1+ try) – The Forbes Ferrari scored a brilliant try last week, and with him attacking the far weaker right edge of the Storm, expect the Tigers to target him this week.
Leg 3: X Coates (1+ try) – Coates, like Staines, will be attacking the weaker right edge of the Tigers’ defence. With 7 tries already this season, the Storm flyer is set for another week in the try scorers list.
SGM Odds: $6.50 at BoomBet
