Sunday in the divisional round boasts a tasty two game slate kicking off from 8.30am. Buffalo and Denver meet at altitude in a showdown between momentum and dominance, while Seattle and San Francisco renew their bitter rivalry with a place in the NFC Championship on the line. Familiar foes, elite talent and fine margins make this a weekend built for drama.
NFL Week Divisional Sunday Betting Tips
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Sunday 8.30am (AEDT)
Denver has authored one of the league’s most impressive stories this season. Winners of 13 of their last 14 games, the Broncos secured the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye for the first time in a decade. Their rise has been built on defensive dominance, consistency and control, with the league’s top-ranked scoring defense anchoring everything they do. Playing at home, at altitude, and coming in fresh after a Week 18 win over the Chargers, Denver believes this is the clearest path they’ve had to meaningful postseason success since Super Bowl 50.
The Broncos’ blueprint is clear. Control tempo through the run game, lean on defensive pressure and let altitude become a weapon late. Denver leads the league with 68 sacks and thrives on forcing opponents into mistakes when they’re behind the chains. If they can establish the ground game early and generate even one or two short fields, they’ll put Buffalo under sustained pressure in a hostile environment.
Buffalo arrives in Denver with momentum of its own after a dramatic 27–24 Wild Card win over the Jaguars. Josh Allen was outstanding under pressure, completing 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. That victory marked the Bills’ first playoff road win since 1993 and reinforced the sense that this team is comfortable winning ugly when required.
Injuries are a concern for Buffalo, particularly across the receiver group and defense, but the Bills’ identity remains intact. They are balanced, physical and unafraid of tight games. Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing offense will be crucial here, not necessarily to dominate, but to keep Denver honest and slow down a ferocious pass rush. Protecting Allen is priority one, because if he has time, Buffalo has proven it can survive almost any environment.
This game shapes up as a classic clash of form versus form. Denver has been nearly unbeatable at home and has every reason to feel confident, especiallyne of the league’s hottest teams entering the postseason. The Broncos’ defensive metrics and home trends suggest they’ll start fast and try to dictate terms early.
But Buffalo feels built for this moment. Allen has scored at least one touchdown in 17 of the Bills’ last 19 games against teams on winning streaks, and his composure in pressure situations gives Buffalo a steadying edge in games that tighten late. Expect Denver to control stretches and make life difficult, but when the margins shrink, I trust Allen and Buffalo’s experience just a bit more. My pick is Bills 24, Broncos 23, with Buffalo doing just enough late to steal a statement win at altitude and punch a ticket to the AFC Championship Game.
Bills to win
$1.98 (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday 12.00pm (AEDT)
Seattle has been the standard bearer in the NFC all season. Finishing 14–3, the Seahawks secured their first NFC West title since 2020 and earned the conference’s top seed on the back of consistency and offensive firepower. They were particularly strong at home, going 6–2 at Lumen Field, where crowd noise and defensive energy have tilted games in their favour. The bye week has allowed them to reset physically and prepare specifically for a divisional opponent they know extremely well.
Offensively, Seattle has been driven by Sam Darnold’s most productive NFL season. He completed nearly 68 percent of his passes for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, while managing the game effectively within structure. His chemistry with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a defining storyline, with Smith-Njigba emerging as one of the league’s most explosive and reliable receivers. Seattle’s ability to strike quickly through the air is what separates them, particularly when playing from ahead at home.
San Francisco enters as the sixth seed at 12–5, but their road credentials are undeniable. The 49ers went 8–2 away from home during the regular season and showed that resilience again in their 23–19 Wild Card win over the Eagles. They are comfortable playing in hostile environments and have consistently found ways to stay competitive deep into games, regardless of venue.
Brock Purdy remains the steady hand at the center of it all. He was solid against Philadelphia and has delivered efficient football throughout the season, particularly when supported by a balanced attack. That balance comes primarily through Christian McCaffrey, who once again carried the offensive load as both a runner and receiver. McCaffrey’s ability to influence games in multiple ways is San Francisco’s biggest weapon, and the 49ers will lean heavily on him to slow Seattle’s pass rush and control tempo.
This shapes as a far tighter contest than the spread suggests. Seattle deserves favouritism at home, but San Francisco has consistently proven it can travel and compete in hostile environments, going 8 and 2 on the road this season. The 49ers’ balance on offense, combined with their ability to shorten games through Christian McCaffrey and control possession, gives them a strong platform to hang around and apply pressure throughout.
Seattle’s home-field advantage and offensive rhythm should still tilt the result in their favour, but expecting a blowout ignores how these teams typically play each other. San Francisco has won seven of the last nine meetings and knows how to frustrate the Seahawks’ attack. I still lean Seattle to advance, but in a one-score game where the 49ers stay within striking distance all night.
49ers +7
$1.96 (1.5 Units)
