The New Zealand Kiwis and Toa Samoa met in the opening round of the 2025 Pacific Championships, and it is fitting that they also close out the tournament. They have earned their right to compete in this Final, displaying an impressive standard of international rugby league. With pride also on the line, passion for their country is set to be evident from the moment each team takes the field. It sets the stage for an exciting contest and one that rugby league fans will not want to miss. Before You Bet is here to assist with a detailed look at the match ahead.
New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa: Pacific Championships Final Preview & Betting Tips
Going to a new level
After a strong opening performance against Samoa whereby they prevailed 24-18, the Kiwis went to another level last week against Tonga, winning 40-14. The 7-try display saw them at their dominating best; equally impressive was their defence which only conceded 2 tries, one of which came with 5 minutes remaining. They dominated possession (58%) and did something with it despite completing at just 74%. 9.7m per carry, 10 line breaks and a massive 740 PCM’s highlights the authority of their victory. Whether the shortcomings of their opponents contributed to this is unknown but winning in that manner made a statement.
Unlocking success
A lot has been written about the potential of Samoa, and they finally delivered in their 34-6 victory over Tonga in Week 2. While most will compare it to the result last week, it showed resilience, determination and effort. Defeated in agonising circumstances the week before, they bounced back nicely and showed no ill-effects of that match. They controlled possession (55%) and completed at 78% on their way to making 8.6m per carry and 6 line breaks. Their defence was also strong – probably better than New Zealand against the same team last week – overcoming 48 tackles to limit their opponents to just one try which came with just 2 mins remaining.
Too close to call
Both teams have improved in this tournament and appear well placed to succeed here. You can make a case for either winning. The Kiwis have a talented team which is well supported by dynamic halves and a spine which is unlocking their opponent with ease. Even the aging legs of Foran at halfback appear to be a step ahead. Consistency is naming the same team as last week will help them. On the other hand, despite an opening defeat to the same team, Samoa appear stronger; a week off will help them rest and prepare for this contest also. They don’t have to travel from New Zealand after playing most recently in Brisbane and there is an argument to say that, had there not been an interruption for weather, they would’ve defeated Tonga by more when they played. With each team having their positives, it appears as though the safest option is to invest on either team winning by less than a converted try. For a Head-to-Head bet, there is a slight lean towards the Kiwis but only because they appear to have a stronger defensive structure that misses fewer tackles. A week off can easily counter that.
Either team by 6.5 points or less
$2.70 (1.5 units)
New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total Points over 43.5 – It has been the trend so far this competition and it doesn’t appear set to change. While last week’s game was below par, having two quality and attacking minded teams will lift the total score in this match.
Leg 2 = McLean to score – he has scored in both games so far and always appears dangerous with the ball in hand. It would be foolish to leave such a talented and improving player out of this.
Leg 3 = Mariner to score – he has also been prolific recently, starring in the Grand Final and carrying his form over to this competition. There is no reason why he will not again feature as his team get the ball to him at every possible opportunity.
Same Game Multi Odds = $6.78 at Dabble
New Zealand vs Samoa Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 9th November
Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Time: 4:05pm (AEDT)
Odds: New Zealand $1.64 vs Samoa $2.30
Line: -3.5
Points: 43.5
