Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, November 30th.
There's nine races on the card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the True position.
Best Bet: Race 2 - (7) November Dreaming
Best Value Bet: Race 7 - (7) Esposito Gold
The two-year-old race kicks off the card. (2) Tagaloa produced a huge run on debut down the straight at Flemington on debut. He jumped well and was then snagged back to nearly last, before producing the third-fastest final 600m and 400m of the day, as well as the second-fastest final 200m to get within 2.1L of the winner. The stable have said if he jumps as well as he did on debut they'll look to ride him forward, so if he lands closer he's going to be hard to hold out. I don't think the price discrepency with him and (8) Baaqyah should be so great. Baaqyah finished 2L ahead of Tagaloa on debut in that race at Flemington and should go forward from barrier 10 to potentially find the lead, if not sit outside the Waterhouse runner. That's going to be no disadvantage at The Valley and if Tagaloa has a few lengths to make up rounding the turn, Baaqyah might be able to hold on. I think the $6.00 is a good each way bet. Have to respect the Snowden yard with one on debut by Pride Of Dubai in the form of (10) Soomayya. Awkward barrier for her to contend with on debut.
Very keen to be with (7) November Dreaming here and I've made her my best of the day at $3.00. She was very good first up at Seymour behind Oasis Girl in a race that has proven to be an extremely strong formline. That race was run five weeks ago and has produced five subsequent winners. Oasis Girl went on to win her next start before proving very competitive in Listed grade, while november Dreaming came out of that race to win her next start at Kyneton easily. One of the horses she beat in that race was Kin Neko, who then came out and won his next start, so the form out of that has already been franked. She's shown tactical versatility, with the ability to come from back in the field or lead. With Meech booked and the good draw in barrier 2, I suspect we'll see her ridden forward again and that should see her prove hard to beat at The Valley. Danny O'Brien's team is flying so lets hope he continues the hot run here. (2) Balaabel obviously the one to beat coming off a 6L win in Adelaide.
South Australian trainer Will Clarken brings two horses to Melbourne today and both run here. His stable are airborne, with 22 winners from the last 100 runners, and five winners from his past 10. In the last five weeks he's had 19 runners start $6 or shorter, resulting in nine wins. I'm with (1) Bella Vella on top, who won the 955m challenge here easily five weeks ago. She then went to Flemington and finished midfield in the Listed Absolut Stakes. Drops in grade today and therefore carries weight, but gets a useful 2kg claim from Teo Nugent and she can bounce back into the winner's circle today. Stablemate (5) Be My Star comes into this at the right stage of her preparation. She's had three runs back now and produced a big effort to come from last and win in Adelaide last start. She was the only horse in the race to break 23 seconds for the final 400m and she did that comfortably. She's won three from five at this distance, gets Linda Meech booked and draws barrier 1, so expect to see her ridden further forward than what we saw last start. She'll be in the finish. (7) Can'tforgetyou was a great result for us at this track and distance last start, saluting at double figure odds. She's been in the money at all six career starts and is a bit unlucky to only have two wins. She's up in grade today and Write Enuff didn't do much to solidify her form with his effort at Cranbourne last night so that's the little query, but she's honest and never runs a bad race. If she gets out to $6.00 or so I'll be having something on.
(3) Mystyko looks ready to win now third up from a spell after a good closing effort at Sandown two weeks ago in the Doveton Stakes. His only prior start at this track was a win in Listed grade so he's got the ability and handles the track. (6) Wagner is our favourite at $3.30. I won't have him on top but I also won't be losing on him. His first up record is terrific with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. The query for him is whether the 1000m is a bit sharp for him and also whether Moonee Valley will suit. He only managed a midfield finish in his only other start here and he's yet to win the Melbourne way of going. He'll be toward the back of the small field and will have to run them down. With that all said, he's only had 17 starts and is still a four-year-old; there's a few in this race which have been around for quite a while and don't have any scope for improvement left. Backing Mystyko, saving Wagner.
Looks another nice race for (5) Talenti who was very impressive in his Australian debut here two weeks ago. That was only a Class 1 but he's got the ability to go onto much better races. He settled near the back of the field and charged over the top of them to score by 1.75L with 60kg on his back. Barrier 1 could be some cause for concern here but I think they'll snag him to the back of the small field, stay in touch and loop them once again. Carries 61.5kg today but they've kept Barend Vorster on rather than claim, which I think is a positive sign, and the weights are fairly compressed so it shouldn't be an issue. He looks exceptionally hard to beat and one of the better bets on the card. There's still $2.15 being bet with 365 compared to $1.80 elsewhere.
I'll be sticking with (6) Somals here, after an impressive effort to win here last Friday night. She was meant to run a few weeks back and was $10 into $4.00 before being scratched at the gates, but she pulled off another good go when she did eventually run last week. It was a good win, because she was held up on the leader's back and had to push through a gap at the 150m mark before picking up to run it down. If she gets clear running earlier today, she should be very hard to hold out again. (4) Rubisaki is a talented filly. She's finished in the top two in all four career starts and the two times she's been beaten, the margin has been 0.1L and 0.2L. Patrick Payne's stable is flying and she should be very competitive again. Expect her to be ridden conservatively from the awkward draw. I'm happy to oppose (2) Three Beans, who steps up to 1200m again but has had its chances this prep. (1) Cosmic Rapsody hasn't done much wrong and probably shouldn't be $15.
(1) Sure Knee finds another very winnable race after bolting in at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day. She's got a terrific record at the mile, with five top-two finishes from six starts. She's only had three runs this prep so she shouldn't be overtaxed and I'd be surprised if she couldn't win this, or at least go very close. Carries weight but Teo Nugent takes 2kg off and if they're able to make ground, she's clearly the one they have to hold out. The stable have a 25% strike rate at The Valley this season, with a 23% ROI. (3) Vanuatu ran well in Group 3 company over this track and distance two starts ago and draws well in barrier 2. (7) Esposito Gold can be thrown into numbers at $41. She'll lead this field and carries 51kg with the claim for Jess Eaton. She's got a good record at the track and distance and there isn't a great deal of depth to this field. With $6.00 the place available she looks an appealing bet.
I might end up with egg on my face but I'll be taking on both (3) Savaheat and (6) Secret Blaze here. Savaheat is yet to place from five starts at the distance, while Secret Blaze draws awkwardly out in barrier 11 and looks short enough to my eye. I'll be with (9) Rupture on top to bounce back after a midfield finish in the Bendigo Cup. He was low flying leading into that race, with dominant victories at Swan Hill and Hamilton. If he were from any other stable I'd be taking him on based on his set up for this race, but Paul Preusker is basically an exception to the rule, especially in staying races. (10) Sir Pippin is ready to win. He's been beaten less than a length in his two starts back in Sydney and comes into this third up. Glyn Schofield off, Michael Walker on is a positive. The value in the race could be (4) Etana. She's been well beaten in two starts back this prep, but she sat three-wide without cover the trip last start so can be forgiven for that. She's 1/1 at the distance, gets the blinkers on for the first time, draws well and her best form would see her be very competitive. Backing Rupture, saving Sir Pippin, something small on Etana.
(6) Spirit Of Aquada goes on top to close out the day. He's a bit of a non-winner, with just three wins from 24 starts (and 13 minor placings) and he's not normally one of mine, but I think this race looks very suitable for him. He's got a good first up record with two wins and two placings from five starts, and those two wins have both been at this track and distance. His win here first up last prep was terrific, coming from off the pace to win by 2L. He should be able to get a similar run from barrier 6 with Dwayne Dunn aboard, and there's no reason he can't be right in the finish. I took some of the $5.50 but he's already into $4.80. (10) Morrissy is another horse that isn't one of mine but he's also suited third up at 1200m. (11) Asgard Massif can be included at double figure odds. He had no luck at all first up, caught three-wide the trip at Kyneton. Drawn to get a good run today and his winning form from last prep is good enough to be competitive here. (12) Zizzis is first up. It took her a couple runs to win last prep but her first two runs were in tough races. I'm very wary of her with Brad Rawiller taking the ride for Patrick Payne. Payne has had two winners from six runners at Moonee Valley this season, has 23 winners frm his past 100 runners and has combined with Brad Rawiller eight times for three winners this season. (14) Never Again can also be included. Spirit Of Aquada and Zizzis the two for me but can play trifectas with the others.
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