Ascot Racing Tips: 2019 Winterbottom Stakes Day

November 30th 2019, 8:19am, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Ascot on Saturday, November 30th.

There's nine races on the card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the 4m position. The meeting is headlined by the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes - you can find our comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the feature race HERE!

We've also covered today's meeting at Moonee Valley. Find our Moonee Valley Preview & Tips here!

Ascot Racing Tips: 2019 Winterbottom Stakes Day

Best Bet: Race 3 - (8) Rebel Knight

Best Value Bet: Race 4 - (16) Without Reason

Race 1 (Market)

I'm very happy to oppose one of the favourites in (2) Cockney Crew here, and I'm surprised he's had support in early betting. This horse is probably the best in the field, but he's had three starts this prep, all at 1600m or 1800m, and he drops back to 1500m today. He was meant to run in last weekend's Railway Stakes but was a scratching due to lameness. I think that's more than enough reason to be against him today. (1) Abdicator won last start after getting a nice trail on the leader who only went at a moderate tempo. That was a small field and he simply sprinted the best. If they crawl along again today he'll probably sprint the best again, but he tends to mix his form and there does look a bit more pace in today's race. Pace is what (4) Western Temple needs. He just couldn't sprint with them after sitting back off the slow tempo behind Abdicator last start. He started $1.55 on that occasion after a dominant win two starts back. Hopefully a bit more speed today allows him to come into the race, but he does know how to run a placing without winning. (7) Superior Smile isn't hopeless as the rank outsider of the small field. His return was good behind Royal Command.

Race 2 (Market)

Very competitive three-year-old race with several winning chances. I'm interested in the sole debutant in the field, (5) Elite Street at each way odds. His first trial win was pretty impressive, hooking around heels from last to win pretty softly. His last trial was one of the more hidden trials you'll see - he wasn't asked to do anything and was under a complete stranglehold the entire straight. The margin was close to 6L but that doesn't tell the story. Dan Morton books Kerrin McEvoy for race day and I'll be having something on at $9.00. It won't be an easy race to win on debut though. (4) Levitate comes off an easy win at Bunbury last start and should get its chance from the good draw for Simon Miller and Chris Parnham. (2) Downforce won last week and backs up quickly. It was a great ride by Steven Parnham last week from barrier 1 and he'll need to do the same again, but this is probably a harder race and he carries 4kg more in the weights. (3) Gotta Motor could well be cooked but he was given less than zero chance last start and Paul Harvey takes over today. (6) Snippy Miss resumes after two good trials and Pike goes straight on. Certainly a chance.

Race 3 (Market)

I think this is close enough to a two-horse race. (8) Rebel Knight was good first up behind (3) Undisclosed over 1000m and he'll be much better suited up slightly in trip today. Pike sticks with him and from barrier 4 he'll get a sweet run throughout. He should be fighting out the finish. I think the one he'll have to run down is (7) The Nicconian, who ran 3rd behind Rebel Knight and Undisclosed. He was first up on that occasion and he tends to go much better second up, with three top two finishes from four starts. He's drawn barrier 1 so he should be right up on the speed. I'm leaning to Rebel Knight ahead of him though - Rebel Knight ran a much better final 400m than The Nicconian in that race so may just be a bit sharper. Happy to take on Undisclosed today. She goes up 4.5kg in the weights, gives both the other horses a 2.5kg weight swing, draws barrier 12, has never placed from five starts at the distance and she tends to struggle second up. (4) Excise Free is flying but this is tougher. Backing Rebel Knight, saving on The Nicconian.

Race 4 (Market)

If this race was over 2000m-2100m, I'd be declaring (10) British Bessy a complete moral. She came from last to run 3rd first up over this track and distance and then charged home to record a strong win over 2150m here last start. Third up today and Pike goes on are both positives, but the drop back to 1800m is a big negative for mine. I hate horses dropping back in distance, particularly in staying races, so I have to be against her here. There's two I'll be backing in the race. On top goes (16) Without Reason for the Colin Webster/Troy Turner combination. This horse has had two runs back from a spell, beaten 4.3L first up by Sir Mambo before being beaten 4.7L at Bunbury last Sunday. He's been snicked back to last on both occasions, quite clearly setting him up for this race. He ran home in the fastest 600m and 200m of the race last start, now steps up to 1800m third up on the six-day back up. Look for him to sit much closer in the run from barrier 8 and I think he'll be winning at $7.50. One of the horses he's likely to be running down is (9) Son of Bacchus, who is knocking on the door. The step up to 1800m will suit him and he gets the winkers on for the first time. Drawn well, will be on pace and will be somewhere in the finish at $8.50.

TIP:

(16) Without Reason
$7.50

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

(9) Son Of Bacchus $8.50

Race 5 (Market)

It looks a nice race for (4) Forceful, who was somehow rolled at the short odds last start, but can make amends today with the step up to 2100m. Although the winner ran a faster final 200m last start, he ran a faster final 400m and 600m. (1) Taxagano was the horse that beat him on that occasion and he should run well again but the 59kg may just weigh him down today. (6) Friar Fox ran basically an identical final 400m to Taxagano in the same race last start and we know the step up in distance will suit her. She'll need the track to allow them to run on as she'll be back in the field from barrier 12. (5) Missile Launch has a terrific record at Ascot and gets his chance from barrier 5. The step back up in distance to 2100m will suit him but whether he has the class of the others is the query.

Race 6 (Market)

The win of (3) Not To Be Mist had to be seen to be believed last start. Nothing much went right for him in the straight, he was badly held up at the 200m mark before ducking back to the inside and zooming home along the rail to get up on the line. It was nearly a repeat of what happened two starts ago when he was held up the entire straight as the $1.75 favourite. He's clearly a talented horse on the rise and will only get better with distance, but he's made a good impression with four wins from seven starts. This is a big task for him today with 60kg from barrier 13, especially if the track plays as it did last week where it was hard to make ground, but he's the most talented horse in the race and the price we're getting is worth taking I think. (7) Shuwish could be the value. She's won three of her seven starts and has had excuses in her two runs back this time in. First up she pulled up with heat stress and last start she drew wide and had to go back in a race that lacked tempo. Third up today, drawn barrier 1 to sit much closer in the run, Damian Lane goes on board and she looks the value at $11. (1) Sir Mambo is absolutely flying. I thought this horse was a non-winner but he's found out how to win, with two victories followed by a 0.2L defeat last start. He didn't get a great deal of luck on that occasion either. He carries top weight today and draws wide so will need a few things go his way. (8) Lacevinsky is likely to lead and will run honestly again but he just keeps finding one or two better. (2) Dickoletto will be around the mark third up.

TIP:

(3) Not To Be Mist
$4.00

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

Value: (7) Shuwish $11

Race 7 (Market)

Looks highly likely that the Fernie's fight this out. (1) Mr Genoa is a winner of five of his eight career starts and is undefeated so far this prep. He came from the back of the field to win claim (2) Concrete Madam on the line at Kalgoorlie last start and I suspect those two horses will fight out the finish again today. Concrete Madam gets a small swing in the weights and Mr Genoa will have to carry 62kg to victory today, but William Pike takes over from Kyra Yuill in one of the bigger jockey changes you'll ever get in WA. Draws barrier 1, should sit right up on the speed and prove hardest to beat. Damian Lane picks up the ride on Concrete Madam who also draws well in barrier 5. Will be backing Mr Genoa and saving Concrete Madam.

Race 8 - Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (Market)

Click here for our in-depth runner-by-runner preview of the G1 Winterbottom Stakes!

Race 9 (Market)

The question here is how wide you want to go in the quaddie, because there's any number of winning chances. (1) Heart Of Couer has a terrific record at this track and distance with three wins from five starts and looks well placed once again with the good draw for Jade McNaught. (4) Megazone was a winner here three starts back before a luckless run behind Massimo two back. Last start stepped up to 1400m and was narrowly beaten by Royal Command. Back to 1200m today, Paul harvey jumps on and should prove tough to beat at each way odds. (7) Supreme Force did a good job to win last start. Melham takes over from oliver today and the blinkers are replaced by the winkers. Both runs this time in have been good so he can go well again despite the wide draw. (8) Ngawi is over the odds at $21. She was good first up before a wide run throughout at Bunbury last start. Third up from a long spell, can run well. (16) Significant Hero resumed at Bunbury and did a good job to win after copping interference during the run. Drawn wide but Pike will find a spot for him back in the field. He only won in maiden company first up but we see these Peters horses improve with every run so he'll be a winning chance.

TIP:

(1) Heart Of Couer
$4.00

BET NOW AT Palmerbet

Value: (4) Megazone $8.50

TIPS

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