Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, June 16th.
We have a monster 10-race card on our hands and the rail moves out 4m this weekend, so leaders may be advantaged in the early races. The track is currently a Soft 5 and there’s some consistent rain predicted so I expect the track to remain in that range.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Make sure to tune into Episode 39 of the Before You Bet Podcast as Tim previews every race at Moonee Valley and Rosehill! You can also find our Rosehill Racing Tips here!
Best Bet: Race 3 #5 Artie Dee Two
Next Best Bet: Race 5 #4 Camdus
Best Value: Race 6 #5 Belwazi / #10 World Of Hope
Tricky little race to kick things off. (1) King’s Brook was luckless on debut at Sandown before winning dominantly at Ballarat last start. In doing so, she recorded the third fastest final 400m of the day, but the overall time of the race was only fair (1:14.93) and she has to carry top weight here. (3) Tahitian Dancer only managed 3rd on debut but that 1200m was run much faster (1:11.91). If we compare the sectionals of those two, King’s Brook ran a final 400m of 23.08 seconds in winning, while Tahitian Dancer ran a final 400m of 22.78 in running 3rd. (8) Symphonette ran 2nd on debut in Adelaide following a good trial. She gets the blinkers applied for the first time here and she’s expected to take up a forward position, which is bound to be a good thing with the rail out 4m. She’d need to improve a bit but with the blinkers on I think she can and you always have to take note when this stable brings them across the border. I think the value in the race is (5) Blonde Choice for Ciaron Maher and Mark Zahra. She’s drawn awkwardly but she ran the fastest final 400m of the day on debut when she ran 2nd on debut. That was fairly impressive given she was held up until about the 200m mark. She maps poorly from barrier 10 but at $10 she’s an appealing price. (2) Royal Duty won well on the synthetic last start but his final 400m was the ninth fastest of the day and his final 400m was the 15th fasest, so I think she’s got to lift a bit. The positive for her is that she draws barrier 1 and should lead. It’s interesting to note that Dwayne Dunn jumps off her in order to keep the ride on (6) Hill Of Grange, a $16 chance. Siding with Symphonette and Blonde Choice in an open race to start the day. Tahitian Dancer the danger but the stable/jockey combo puts me off.
TIP: (8) Symphonette / (5) Blonde Choice EW
I’d be surprised if one of the top three in betting didn’t win this. (2) Another Bullseye is the one I want to be with. She started off this preparation in terrific style with two wins and a 2nd to French Emotion from her first three starts, before failing last start at Flemington. Put a pen through that run though, as she was caught wide without cover for the whole race and had apprentice Liam Riordan on from barrier 16. She wasn’t suited at all. Damien Oliver back on board today, drawn well in barrier 3, should be in the first four in running and will have absolutely every chance, so long as she’s taken no ill-effect from that tough run a month ago. (5) Linguist won well at Cranbourne last start, taking her record to three wins from five starts at the distance. She’s hit form and as she showed last prep at Flemington, she’s well and truly up to winning a race like this. Should be on-speed from the good draw and gets in very well weighted with just 54kg. The jockey booking is of some concern though. The same can be said about (1) Hectopascal who is flying but has a few negatives here with Fred Kersley on from the wide barrier. This is a tricky track and Fred isn’t in the best of form at the moment so I think she’s well and truly short enough as it stands, despite her good recent form. (7) Fudged and (3) Bint El Bedu are the roughies.
TIP: (2) Another Bullseye
Didn’t expect (5) Artie Dee Two to be $2.50 here but I’m pretty keen on him as the best winning chance in the race. He looks particularly well suited. He’s now had three runs back from a year off the track, including a win two starts ago and a 3rd placing at Sandown Lakeside last start. He gets back to the 1200m at the Valley now – a track and distance he is undefeated at from two attempts. The rain forecast is sure to suit him and I suspect they will be pretty positive from barrier 2. (11) Seven Year Reward is knocking on the door and comes out of the same race as Artie Dee Two last start. Draws well and looks the likely leader, but there isn’t a shortage of speed here. (9) Wind Force was good first up before a flat run last start. That’s not out of the ordinary for him though and he is a runner that can land on speed. $23 seems reasonable. (2) Moonlover and (3) Bord De Gain both with claims.
TIP: (5) Artie Dee Two
They’ll have a hard time beating (5) Princeton Spirit here. He’s won four of his six starts and you can excuse him for defeat last start when caught three-wide without cover. He was first up from a 45-day break on that occasion, so he was entitled to drop out but only ended up beaten 2L. He’ll be fitter for that and can bounce back here with the good draw in barrier 6. $4.20 seems a reasonable price. (2) King River has the talent to win this race. He’s been nominated and scratched from a handful of races over the past two months since his blistering win at Caulfield. Connections said post-race that he was a wet-tracker and he looks certain to get that here. $7 also look an appealing price for him. (13) Good Therapy has been good in his two starts back from a spell. Drawn awkwardly here which is the main concern. (8) Brahmos and (9) Moonlites Choice have claims, while (4) Recalculate could be a blowout chance with conditions likely to suit.
TIP: (5) Princeton Spirit / (2) King River EW
Nice little race and very happy to bet. The favourite Inn Keeper has come out of the race, forcing a reshape of the market and that leaves me with (4) Camdus clearly on top at $6. I think that’s a terrific each way price. This horse won first up in Adelaide before an underwhelming run last time out, but if you look at his record, he always fails second up (four starts, zero placings). His third up record is unblemished, however, with three wins from as many starts. He’s got a good record at this track and distance (he won here third up last prep) and draws ideally in barrier 1. Chris Parnham is an underrated jockey in Melbourne and I think he’s a terrific winning chance here. (6) Ashlor is now favourite and will run his usual honest race. I’m not sure (2) Widgee Turf is best suited over 1200m with a big weight, but he’s a classy animal and has overcome conditions like that before. Big each way bet on Camdus at $6/$2.15.
TIP: (4) Camdus EW
(4) Rillito is obviously the class horse in the field but first up from a 385-day break with barrier 11 is certainly a tough ask. I’m prepared to bet around her here. That leaves me with (2) Showpero on top by default. She won well first up in Adelaide and is likely to find conditions to suit here given her record on soft ground (six starts, three wins, two placings). Her last start on soft ground was a 2.5L win in Adelaide. From barrier 9 she will roll across to sit up on speed and from there she gets her chance. I think there’s two at very good odds worth backing too. (5) Belwazi ran a shocker first up, finishing last over this track and distance, but they’ve proceeded on with his preparation and he’d trialled well leading into that, so it could be worth forgiving him. He’s got a great record at this distance and has performed well at the Valley in the past, so at $20 I’ll stick with him today. (10) World Of Hope is a $26 chance but that looks over the odds. She’s had two runs back from a spell and has drawn awkwardly on both occasions. Drops back to 1000m today which suits her much better than 1200m and she also draws barrier 2. Sneaky chance. (3) Chiavari will relish the wet conditions but is yet to win second up, as is (6) Balancing Act, who won well first up but is yet to place in four starts when second up.
TIP: (2) Showpero / (5) Belwazi EW / (10) World Of Hope EW
This is wide open, with as many as 10 winning chances. (4) Flying Krupt is another Adelaide visitor from the Phillip Stokes yard that makes its way over after a good return first up when running 2nd. The wet ground still remains somewhat of an unknown but I suspect she will get a great run behind what looks to be a hot speed from barrier 7 here. $10 interests me. (8) Stylish Missile won first up last prep over 1200m from a wide barrier. She’s drawn horribly here and will likely settle at the back of the field – whether she can win from there first up over 1000m is a big query but she’s going to get the pace on to suit her. Is 1000m a touch short? (2) Miss Leonidas has been good in every start this preparation, including a big win two starts ago and a very narrow defeat at Flemington last star.t Draws nicely in barrier 6 but faces a battle for the lead. (5) Layel is in a similar boat. She has won two from three this prep and was too bad to be true in her defeat. Drawn wide here and will be wanting to slide across but there’s five or six runners that could push forward so I doubt she will be getting an easy lead in front. (9) Cath’s Village steps up sharply in class after winning in maiden and BM58 grade in her past two starts but she’s from a dangerous stable. (10) Cheriff’s Choice is knocking on the door and if she’s a chance then so is (1) Miss Norway who beat her last start. (13) Zarpoya and (14) Super Hussy not hopeless at odds. Not a race I’m keen to bet in but possibly something small on Flying Krupt and Stylish Missile.
TIP: (4) Flying Krupt EW / (8) Stylish Missile EW
(1) Lite’n In My Veins is absolutely flying with four wins from his past five starts. He carries 59kg after the claim for Liam Riordan today but he carried 60kg to victory in Adelaide just three starts ago so the weight isn’t so much of a concern here. He sat wide throughout when winning over course and distance last start and from barrier 2 he gets a much softer run today.$4.20 seems reasonable given the form he’s in. (8) Have Another Glass won well over 2000m two starts ago before dropping back to 1550m last start when running 2nd to Tatoosh. Back up to 2000m now and only 54kg on his bac. There is a slight concern over how far back he tends to get in his races. Barrier 1 at the Valley isn’t ideal for his racing pattern. His sectionals in recent starts suggest he will be very competitive though. The value could be the jumper (3) Self Sense. He won over the hurdles over 3400m last strat but his flat form prior to that was very good. He won over 2000m at Caulfield three starts ago, defeating Kiwia, before running 2nd in the Wagga Cup. Sure to relish the soft ground here and gets the blinkers back on so at $10 I’ll be having something on. (11) Zilbiyr could be the blowout at $41. The wetter the better for him.
TIP: (1) Lite’n In My Veins / (3) Self Sense EW
Capacity field here but I don’t think there’s necessarily a great number of winning chances. (13) Tatoosh comes across from Adelaide. He’s absolutely flying for his new trainer this prep with five wins from seven starts. One of those defeats came in Melbourne when he sat three-wide the trip and still managed to run 3rd behind subsequent Wagga Cup winner Life Less Ordinary. He should roll forward and probably sit outside the leader from barrier 10 here and if he gets an easy enough run he’ll be hard to hold out. (4) Akavaroun is ready to win one now he’s had three starts back from 546 days off the track. He ran 3rd over course and distance last start and should once again strip fitter tday. Barrier 1 gives him his chance. (15) Penthouse Poet needs two scratchings to make the final field but I’ve had something on at $61. He’s been good in his two starts back from a spell, winning first up before running home strongly into 3rd at Sandown last start. The times suggest he’d still need to improve but he’ll get a wet track today which is what he needs to be competitive at this level. Wary of (12) Sixties Groove having his second start for Weir.
TIP: (13) Tatoosh / (4) Akavaroun EW
Not an easy way to end the quaddie. I didn’t think he’d be the $4 favourite but (5) Bel Sonic will once again be hard to hold out. He’s drawn wide but it may not be that big of a negative at this stage of the day on a track that’s likely to be wet and he’s shown in his two previous starts here that he can launch from the back of the field. The money has come for the Weir horse (7) Grey Shadow, just as it did last start, and she looks to get a nice run from the barrier. She gets a fair whack of weight off a couple of the leading hopes at the top of the weights. (3) Egyptian Bullet has done nothing wrong this prep with three wins from three starts and she actually beat Grey Shadow by 2L last start. Grey Shadow gets a 5.5kg weight swing in her favour today and the 59.5kg might just bring Egyptian Bullet undone. (2) Depsatch was backed as if unbeatable last start but never looked likely. I’d be monitoring the market there. (4) Sam’s Image and (6) Spirit Of Aquada others to consider.
TIP: (5) Bel Sonic
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