Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, August 22nd!
Racing returns to The Valley where the Listed McKenzie Stakes and Listed Carlyon Stakes will headline the program. The track is currently rated a Soft 6 but there is plenty of rain predicted, so it could end up in the heavy range on Saturday. The rail is out 5m.
Trent Crebbin has assessed every race on the card in his preview below!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, August 22nd
Best Bet: Race 5 - (3) Global Gift
Next Best: Race 7 - (7) Windstorm
Best Value: Race 2 - (1) Santa Catarina
Bit of a nothing race to kick us off. It looks a race in two for mine between the odds on favourite (4) Coming Around who is coming off a nice win for us at Flemington, and the old boy (1) Widgee Turf. Coming Around ran well first up at Swan Hill on a hard day to make ground before showing his class once clear from an inside barrier and lengthening nicely to post a soft victory. Riordan rode him well last start and keeps the ride, but he is $1.80 here and up against a better credentialed horse than he faced last start. I speak of course of Widgee Turf who is 2nd up after a so-so run in the Aurie’s Star first up. He was very solid in the market there and held his ground, perhaps not enjoying the sit and sprint nature of the race down the straight. The race shape did allow it, but he reeled off far superior late sectionals to Coming Around on the same day, running his last 600m over a full second quicker. Widgee Turf also performs well 2nd up, loves the track and distance, and loves wet ground. The map is a bit sticky from barrier 2 and with Tahlia replacing Billy getting the right run when needed is my main concern, but I’d still rather take the $5 about Widgee Turf than the $1.80 about Coming Around. (7) Alsvin looks the sole leader from barrier 1 and will give some cheek. If he wins you can establish a leader’s pattern.
As I write this How Womantic has been scratched which is a shame because she had no chance on a wet track first up in my opinion. That leaves us with a dominant favourite in the form of (4) Tailleur down from Sydney. She had a bit of a hype on her going into this preparation and whilst she hasn’t blown me away, she has been very good winning twice and running a 2nd. Her last start at Rosehill was over after 200m when the other jockeys handed her the uncontested easy lead and from there any jockey in Australia could’ve won on her, but she was dominant in posting a 3.8L win. She probably finds the front again here and is the fit horse who loves heavy ground. She’s very hard to knock. (8) Sword Of Mercy is racing consistently but a proper heavy track is a bit of an unknown. (3) Southbank is first up here, and I’d have to see her come back because she, like Acting, was cooked last preparation by the Kevin Hayes run. I thought the value in the race was (1) Santa Catarina who is having her 2nd Australian start in a long time. She drew the widest barrier at this T/D last start and jumped well but drifted back to last. Campbell Rawiller decided to whip around the field halfway through the race and it nearly paid dividends, still in front 100m out but just getting overrun late to finish 4th. She draws nicely in barrier 4 here for Stockdale so she should be in front of a few backmarkers drawn wide and she loves heavy ground as evidence by her NZ form in group 3 races. At the double figures available I thought she was a solid bet rather than taking the $1.60 about Tailleur, who admittedly should be winning.
I have to be against the favourite (11) Jenni’s Rainbow who looks to have a stack of talent coming off a big synthetic win, rocketing home in some hot sectionals. She goes from the synthetic to a heavy track and has a potentially sticky draw here in 4 with some quick horses drawn inside which may mean she’s buried along the inside which is never ideal at The Valley. The problem is finding what beats her because these fillies’ races are incredibly tough. (5) Montia should be right on speed from barrier 1. She was dominant on debut before starting hard in the market against Larimer Street and running okay for 4th. She hasn’t seen a heavy track on race day, but I think she’ll handle it. One that can run well at a price is (10) Chosen Blonde who has come back well. She won two trials leading into her first up run over 900m where she led and just got done by Celestine, who impressively won again last week, sitting 3 wide and easily accounting for Jabali Ridge. Chosen Blonde then led all the way over 1000m as the $1.60 favourite, winning well. She comes back to Melbourne here, Mcneil jumps on from barrier 3 so she should have no trouble either leading or box seating and with some race fitness on her side she can run well, probably at a bigger price on the day. (7) Clean Machine will be thereabouts and is consistent, but that Miss Divine Em race is a bit suspect for mine. (3) Dirty Thoughts is fit and should handle wet ground. She’s in form and has fitness on her side, but barrier 9 could be tricky for a horse that would ideally like to be just off pace. Jenni’s Rainbow could be too good here but at the price she looks poisonous. Not much else jumps off the page so something small on Chosen Blonde late in betting.
Over to the stayers and this could easily be a midweek race. (1) Tigre Royale is shooting for 5 wins in a row and was dominant with 61.5kg last start at Sandown. He handles all surfaces and draws well but does have to carry 62kg here in a tougher race. (5) High Emocean is going for 4 wins on the bounce. Her latest win was visually quite impressive, coming from off the speed to dominate Persan. She did carry 8kg less than that horse who had been up a long time, and aside from him and Grinzinger Allee who didn’t show up or didn’t get the trip, the race was legless. She’s a promising horse and these Maher/Eustace stayers just seem to keep improving, but she looks a touch short. (4) Crimson Ace ran 3rd behind Skyman last start. She’s consistent and will run well again with Olly aboard despite an awkward gate. Also coming out of that race was (8) Kentucky Tornado, who was last on the turn and ran home very strongly, coming home in the fastest last 400m and 200m of the race. Her only heavy track run further than 1400m was a very soft maiden victory as the $2.50 favourite, funnily enough with Tigre Royale in 2nd. It might be one run too early for Kentucky Tornado but she’s a big chance. If they are making ground (7) Blandford Lad isn’t hopeless at odds. He needs a tempo to run on which he didn’t get last start, but the two wins prior in very similar company were good. Not a race that interests me much. Kentucky Tornado on top, Blandford Lad a result also.
Value: (7) Blandford Lad $18
(8) Kentucky Tornado
$4.60
Keen to back (3) Global Gift here. I was quite keen on him last start at Bendigo in a race where he looked the only leader on his preferred heavy track, so the drift confused me. Anyway, he bolted in by 2.8L in a soft victory. He draws wide here but Melham should have no issues crossing to either lead or sit outside the lead and attempt to control the race. Has to carry 61.5kg but loves wet ground and probably has the best form going in. Another that depends on the way the track is playing but if they are swooping, I’m also keen to back (4) Irish Flame. The run 1st up in Australia was solid, albeit beaten 5L by Coming Around. 2nd up at the 1600m looks to suit, as does a wet track. This NZ gelding’s record on heavy ground reads 6: 3-0-1 so if it’s a real slog, he’s the one who will be eating it up late. (11) Savvy Lad was given none by Walker last start, finding all sorts of traffic back on the inside. No queries on a wet track for him but he still hasn’t done much in Australia despite the hype. 2nd in that race was (13) Antagoniser who had every chance but tried well. She should get a nice run just behind the speed from barrier 3. Global Gift looks one of the better bets of the day, and also something on Irish Flame if they’re making ground or they change tactics.
Keen to see the returning (4) Flying Award who has had three career starts for two 2nd and a win. He looks to have come back in very good order and looks one that will take the step into group one 3yo company. His win before a spell was very good coming from last to get up over 1400m. If he can settle midfield from barrier 4, he’ll take a stack of beating, despite being on the way to bigger races such as the Caulfield Guineas. Interesting to note his sire, 3yo Cox Plate winner Shamus Award ran 2nd in this race on the way to that Cox Plate victory. (1) Hard Landing should come across and lead. He won okay first up with a very bunched finish in a race that has no substance in my opinion. (5) Pioneer River isn’t hopeless, especially if they decide to go forward from the sticky barrier. His run at this T/D in the Autumn was good behind Larimer Street. (9) Zipping Boy was well backed on debut at Pakenham and it was a strong win with a big gap back to 3rd. Willo takes the reins from barrier 1 so he probably looks for the lead again, and his breeding suggests he’ll love a wet track. I could have something on him at double figures if the inside is holding up.
Value: (9) Zipping Boy $12
Can’t wait to see (7) Windstorm after I declared (and launched) Showmanship last week. Windstorm is just another one of the Bob Peters’ brigade set for a Spring assault. The horse has had 6 starts, won 5 and run 2nd to a handy horse in Indian Pacific when first up and too far back. Since his debut win, his average SP has been $1.30. If you get a chance, take a look at his 2nd ever run in October last year because horses just don’t win from the position he was in. It reminded me of Winx in the Turnbull Stakes last year. He’s seen up to a soft 7 and handled it fine so I don’t think a wet track will stop him. As we saw with Showmanship last week however, I think he’ll drift. He definitely gets back to near last in run from the wide barrier which will inflate his odds with many trying to get him beat. As long as Pike gets moving early and doesn’t give them too big a head start, nothing racing on the card let alone the race can match him late. Do wait to back him though because you should get a bigger price come jump time. (8) La Tigeresa likes wet ground but has had way too many chances and doesn’t win. (6) Banquo looks unders to me considering he’s been unplaced from 2 soft track runs and never seen a heavy and is first up here drawn wide on a heavy track. (3) Dexelation won a messy race last start but is racing very well and likes wet ground. (5) Inn Keeper can improve on wet ground and should be able to roll forward. Can’t wait to watch Windstorm do his thing, and if he gets out to $3+ he’d become my best bet of the day and another launch job!
I was originally keen on Alfa Oro, but he’s been scratched. I’m also fairly confident that (10) Brooklyn Hustle will be scratched due to the wet ground, but if we somehow stay in the soft range and she’s here she’s a big chance. Don’t love her staying at the 1000m or drawn inside again but she’s a big talent. (1) Jungle Edge is the obvious on a heavy track. I don’t think I’ve ever backed him and do think he’s better over 1100/1200m but he’s the most likely winner if Brooklyn Hustle is out. I’ve had something on (9) Witherspoon down from Sydney. She’s a very quick horse and I’d expect Olly to go straight to the front and hold Jungle Edge out, who probably sits at her hindquarters. She’s in great form this prep, winning two on the bounce before racing 3 wide no cover on speed and going down half a length, with 59.5kg and Louise Day on top. She drops 4.5kg for this, relishes heavy ground and could just be too speedy for them. (3) Ashlor isn’t hopeless at big odds. He loves wet ground and racing at The Valley. Hard to see him turning the tables on Jungle Edge but he won’t be far away. (5) Bons Away has trialled well as per usual but rarely wins and has never seen a heavy track. The double figures for Witherspoon looks a good bet and I’d be surprised if she doesn’t place at around $3.
I(3) Orderofthegarter was my best bet but he's been scratched. With him coming out, I'm left with (8) Mirimar on top by default. Zahra should get complete control and on a wet deck he might be hard to get past. If nothing is making ground early in the day, I’ll be making Mirimar a result too. (6) Polly Grey did a lot of early work last start and ran very well. She’ll love a return to wet ground, but I don’t like Thornton replacing Lane from barrier 1. (1) Young Rascal beat Mugatoo first up last prep and is classy enough but has to carry 62kg first up on a wet track from a wide barrier at a distance short of his best. (12) Skyman is progressive but will be near last from the barrier and looks far too short at single figures. (5) Dabiyr finished close up behind Orderofthegarter last start but did start $18 there and was allowed to build momentum for longer than Orderofthegarter. He’s got a great 2nd up record but probably doesn’t want a proper heavy track.
